Source: Global Times
Author: Niu New Year
U.S. Secretary of State Broskel has visited the Middle East on January 29 and visited Egypt, Israel and Palestine. Among them, Israel and Palestine are the focus and difficulties of this visit.
In the new version of the "National Security Strategy" in 2022, China is defined as the most significant and long -term competitors, and Russia is the most urgent threat. In contrastEssenceIn fact, over the past 10 years, the previous American governments have wanted to have a strategic contraction in the Middle East and reduce their attention and investment in the Middle East.During the peak of the Iraq war and the Afghanistan war, the United States had 200,000 people in the Greater Middle East, and now there are only more than 30,000 people.There is a buzzword in the Middle East research circle in the United States: Although you are not interested in the Middle East, there will always be a crisis in the Middle East to pull you back.The possibility of this prospect in the Middle East in 2023 is getting higher and higher.The global competition between China and the United States has intensified, and the Ukraine crisis has entered a critical stage. The United States does not want the Middle East to re -festival branches, causing itself to fall into the embarrassing situation of the "three -line game".This is a strategic background of American senior officials visiting the Middle East.
The direct consequence of the United States' strategic contraction in the Middle East is the decline in influence.Camp Nou, director of the National Security Council during the Reagan period, said, "I have never seen the United States' influence in the Middle East so small."For a long time, the United States is not only the biggest external factors affecting the power structure of the Middle East, but the United States itself is the most important pillar in the power pattern of the Middle East.Now the United States' allies and opponents in the Middle East are increasingly increasingly troublesome to the United States.
On the Ukrainian issue, the Middle East has made the United States more troublesome.As the closest ally in the United States, Israel has a significant temperature difference with the United States and Europe, and only agrees to provide humanitarian assistance and defensive equipment to Ukraine; Saudi Arabia, as a strategic partner of the United States for more than 80 years, even "as" Russia "on oil issues; IranAs the main opponent of the United States, it has increased the pace with Military cooperation with Russia.What is most worried about the United States is that the Middle East is likely to have a new crisis.From the current situation, the relationship between Iran and Pakistani is the two dangerous "irregular bombs".outside.
Iran nuclear negotiations have fallen into a deadlock, and the possibility of turning the opportunity is very small.With no way to dismiss economic sanctions through negotiations, Iran will continue to improve their nuclear capabilities and get closer to the so -called "nuclear threshold" as much as possible.The willingness of the United States and Israel to solve nuclear issues through military means will increase significantly.At the same time, due to Iran's domestic issues, the United States and Europe have issued new sanctions to make the relationship between the West and Iran worse.More importantly, Western claims that Iran provides Russia with equipment such as drones and missiles.However, after nearly 10 years of strategic contraction, the United States' deterrent ability to Iran is not as good as before. Iran's missile capabilities have surpassed the level of "low cost curb" in the United States, and Iran's nuclear capacity is at the highest level.A variety of factors are superimposed, which has caused the game and Iran to increase the game and upgrade. The risk of military conflicts has increased sharply.
For Pakistani issues, it is not the problem of whether conflicts will be upgraded, but the degree and scope of conflict upgrade.On January 26, after the news of the visit to Brinken's visit to the Middle East, the Israeli army raid the Palestinian refugee camp on the west bank of the Jordan River at night, causing nine people to die. This is the most serious single attack in the past 20 years.Palestinian officials immediately announced that they would stop all security cooperation with Israel and will appeal to the United Nations Security Council and the International Criminal Court.One day later, a shooting incident near a Jewish Hall in East Jerusalem caused at least seven Israelis deaths and three injuries.The United States calls on both sides to stay calm.
In the past 2022, it was the most tense and turbulent year in the past 10 years. After the most right -wing government in Israeli history in December last year, the alarm was frequent.Extreme religions and nationalist parties jointly governed with Neitanahu insisted on changing the status quo of Temple Mountains and the west bank of the Jordan River.The United States wants to maintain the status quo and continues to promote the "two countries' plans", and it is necessary to further promote diplomatic relief and military cooperation between Israel and Arab countries to reduce the burden on the United States.The conflict between the interests between the United States and Israel is becoming more and more obvious.At the same time, the differences between the Democratic Party of Biden's Democratic Party and Neitanahu have become increasingly prominent in the ideological field.
Similarly, the influence of the United States on Israel is not as good as before.Before Bayeng came to power, he vowed to push Trump's Pakistani policy back, relocate the US Embassy back to Tel Aviv, and re -open the Palestinian office to restrict the construction of Jewish settlements.Failure to implement.
The United States is busy with the competition and the Ukraine crisis, and does not want to let the Middle East affairs disperse energy and continue to implement the strategic contraction policy of the Middle East.However, strategic shrinkage has led to a decline in US influence, and major regions dare to continuously challenge the interests and determinations of the United States. Instead, they may have to invest more resources in the United States.This is a major paradox in the US Middle East policy and the core of the US Middle East policy debate over the years.
