Liu Yiru: Chinas impact on the global economy on the global economy

Source: Zhongshi News Network

Author: Liu Yiru

China will be completely unsealed from January 8 this year.As a world's second largest economy that accounts for 18.3%of the global GDP, the re -opening of the three -year -old epidemic prevention sealing has a huge impact; especially for the global economy between inflation and recession, it is moreIt will trigger a critical turning effect.

Since January this year, the global stock market has risen sharply. During nearly a month, Nasdaq has risen 11%, Philadelphia semiconductor has risen by 16%;The sharp decline in profit.In addition to positive news such as inflation and unemployment, in the World Economic Forum (WEF) held in Davos a few days ago, it is also generally believed that the beautiful performance of this wave of stock markets basically stems from the solution to mainland China.The expectation.

First of all, the most people look forward to the increase in consumption brought by China after unblocking, and further contribute to the economic growth of the mainland and the world.In the past year and a half, Europe, the United States and all countries in the world have been unsealed. Even with the risk of virus infection, "revenge consumption" has no exception to appear in every unblocked country.For example, according to the Fed's FED data, the average US savings rate rose to an average of 17.9%during the epidemic during the epidemic prevention.3.4%.And due to the great increase in consumption, the proportion of consumption on GDP was increased from 66.5%to 68.6%after the initial epidemic situation.The economic growth rate in the United States in 2021 reached 5.9%, which almost tied the average global average of 6.0%, which has a great relationship with the contribution of its "retaliated consumption" to GDP.

At present, China's folk savings rate is as high as 36%, which is much higher than about 30%before the epidemic. Therefore, even if the public is concerned about poor economic situation, consumption increases low, but it will still be suppressed for three years.It will be a great power.Since the announcement of China, the global stock market has risen sharply, especially the names of Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan and other Asian regions, which are most likely to benefit from mainland tourists, as well as the most consumed of tourists from mainland China.There are greater gains.For example, nearly a month since January this year, LVMH (the world's largest multinational luxury comprehensive enterprise group) has risen by nearly 18%.As for Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, etc., it will also benefit from the increase in mainland exports after restoring the economic growth standards on the mainland.Georgieva, president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), also expressed his expectation to look forward to China's economic growth (estimated by 4.4%) this year (4.4%) higher than the global average (estimated 2.7%), restore its role in contributing to the growth of world economic growth.Essence

Secondly, China's unseen will help recover the global industrial supply chain, and therefore will help reduce the inflation pressure of the world, especially Europe and the United States.Although this wave of global inflation is mainly due to the issuance of too many banknotes (QE) during the epidemic period, the price of commodities such as oil and raw materials has soared, the formation of supply chain bottlenecks, and the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, all of which have also caused, all of which are also caused by the Russian and Ukraine War.An important factor in inflation.In the past three years, the sealing of the city has repeatedly occurred, and various products around the world have often unable to supply the chain; in 2021, after the unblocking and increasing demand, the supply and demand of supply and demand for supply and demand is severe.Inflation.

From the current situation, the US Federal Reserve last year was obviously effective. On January 12 this year, the United States announced on December last year's annual inflation rate, which has dropped from 9.1%of the highest point to6.5%; but because the target of the Federation is still 2%higher than the target of the Federation, this wave of interest rate hikes is still unable to end.If the supply chain bottleneck problem can be resolved with the unsealation of the world, especially in mainland China, it is helpful for relieving pressure such as inflation, interest rate hikes, and economic recession.Based on the "Baltic Dried Dry Index" that is generally used to measure the bottleneck of the supply chain, the index has dropped from 1723 to 703 in the past month, a decrease of nearly 60%, and it also shows that China's unblocking is helpful to the smooth global supply chain.

But in the end, it cannot be ignored that after China unsealed, the demand for large commodities such as oil, natural gas, copper, iron, and grain will be greatly increased.Cooling.Because of the abnormal warm winter of Europe this year, energy demand has been greatly reduced, so that the prices of natural gas and oil are still low -end;It may also rise due to China's consumption needs, which is worth continuing to observe.