Source: Zhongshi News Network
Author: Xu Mian Sheng
The US media recently reported that the Federal House of the House of Representatives will be visited to Taiwan this spring.This message is not surprising.Because of the time before the Speaker of Perosi came to Taiwan, McCarthy had expressed support, and threatened to visit Taiwan in the future if he was elected.
Although this message has not been confirmed, neither the US government and mainland China have not stated.However, there are previous examples of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. I believe that even if Beijing once again expressed opposition, the US administration will not stop.
The U.S. government may not stop McCarthy's visit to Taiwan.
First, although the US Democratic Party has not defeated at the end of last year, it is an indisputable fact that the Republican Party has obtained the dominance of the House of Representatives.The Biden government must compromise with the Republican Party in the future to successfully promote major policies.Coupled with the strong domestic anti -China -China forces, the White House and the State Council do not need to match McCarthy and anti -Chinese eagle forces.
More importantly, the United States can use it to make it clear to Beijing that the United States has independent management rights for Taiwan affairs.As long as the United States believes that it has not violated the first Chinese policy, does not support the Taiwan independence, and does not have the Law of Taiwan relations, it insists on doing it and cannot intervene in external forces.In other words, the United States wants to confirm from Beijing again that the red line of US -China relations is not completely identified by Beijing.
The Democratic Progressive Party government will naturally welcome McCarthy visits.First, although McCarthy is not an US government official, and visiting Taiwan after Perosi, the news effect is greatly reduced, after all, it is the Speaker of the House of Representatives and still has certain symbolic significance.The DPP government can preach to the outside world that Taiwan is not isolated under the DPP.
Second, after the vice president Lai Qingde served as the chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party, the future competing presidential position has become a foregone conclusion.A few days ago, the Financial Times questioned Lai Qingde's self -proclaimed "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker".It promoted Lai Qingde to reiterate that "Taiwan is a country with sovereignty and independence, and it is not necessary to declare independence" and intend to fight for the trust of the United States.When McCarthy visits, the DPP government will definitely arrange to meet with Lai Qingde.Shape the image of the United States to support the DPP, thereby adding points to the DPP in the 2024 election.
If there is no surprise, Beijing will once again oppose McCarthy's visit to Taiwan, and before Perosi visit Taiwan, it will accuse McCarthy for visiting Taiwan to harm Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity.Some people in Taiwan believe that mainland China will hold military exercises beforehand to prevent McCarthy from visiting Taiwan in one fell swoop.It is also believed that the move in the United States aims to provoke the mainland and seduce the Chinese mainland to move against Taiwan, thereby achieving the dual effect of damage to Taiwan.But this inferences are all over.
As soon as, the Chinese main military can disrupt the McCarthy trip in a while, but it cannot completely dispel its willingness to visit Taiwan.Secondly, mainland China moves against Taiwan.It is presented that McCarthy's coming to Taiwan can promote the martial arts in mainland China, which obviously underestimates Beijing's strategic determination.
In all fairness, McCarthy is just the Speaker of the House of Representatives and belongs to the legislature, which is very different from the US administrative department.If it is explained strictly, McCarthy does not represent the US government. Although the rank is high, it is essentially the same as other members of the United States.There is no need to use "military response" in Beijing at all.
Pelossey did not promote Taiwan independence after his visit to Taiwan.The independent person still lives in his nest mortar, but he wants to be alone but dare not alone.Even if McCarthy's visit to Taiwan is the same, it will not have the actual impact on the relationship between the United States and Lutai.As long as Beijing came to Taiwan as a breeze in the Taiwan Strait, it was not possible.
