Source: Taiwan United Daily
Lianhe Daily News
With the no longer "clear" in mainland China, the global epidemic may be normalized this year.Although the shadow of the global economic recession and inflation is still there, the threat of the epidemic should be gradually recovered.However, the crisis of geopolitics still exists, and there are three.
The first is the Russian and Ukraine War.Now that the two sides are stuck, Ukraine has the support of Europe and the United States, and it is impossible to surrender; Russia is unlikely to admit defeat with the geographical advantage and Putin Iron Ice, so the war may be developed for a long time.Due to the difficulty of compromising territorial sovereignty, the peace agreement is impossible. Perhaps it can only imitate the Korean war model and reach a ceasefire agreement on the actual control of the two sides.
The second is the Taiwan Strait crisis.The Taiwan Strait conflict is more dangerous than the war in Russia and Ukraine, because it involves the two major economies in the world. Once the two are directly military conflicts, they will inevitably suffer heavy injuries and affect the world. No country can be spared.The confrontation between the United States and the China -China hegemony is just one of the fuse lines, but the situation is more complicated because of the unity of Taiwan ’s unity and sovereignty in the mainland.After the US -China Bali Island Summit, both sides hope to control risks; US Secretary of State Brills will visit Beijing at the end of January to try to establish guardrails.This year will be a key year for the trend of US -China relations.
The third is the Korean Peninsula crisis.North Korea and South Korea have recently strengthened their confrontation. At the same time, the alliance of the Cold War -South Korea, the United States and Japan confronted the DPRK and China.If the conflict broke out in the future, it may be upgraded to nuclear martial arts confrontation.North Korea is about to carry out simulation combats to carry out multi -warrior intercontinental missile nuclear attacks against many large cities in the United States this year, which means that it is difficult for the United States to take the risk of "sacrificing millions of American people" to provide South Korea with nuclear umbrellas.Under the lack of confidence in the security protection of the United States, South Korea may develop nuclear weapons by itself, which will also trigger Japan's re -armed forces.
The United States has a share in these three crises, so it is bound to be more powerful.The United States can no longer fight two wars at the same time, and it is even more difficult to deal with three crises. Therefore, it is the Korean Peninsula that will be sacrificed. The United States has no intention of dealing with North Korea, making Pyongyang increasingly sitting.
Mainland China is also involved in the three crises: the Russian and Ukraine War involved the relationship between China and Russia's quasi -alliance, and the Nuclear Military Crisis of the Korean Peninsula, and China and North Korea have alliance relationship restrictions. Taiwan is the core interest of Beijing.If Sino -US relations cannot be properly dealt with, the crisis may explode.
