Source: Ming Pao
Ming Pao Society Review
The Chinese New Year congratulations to young people is a bit embarrassing this year, because it is impossible for the newlyweds or for the country, whether for the newlyweds or the country.China ’s first population growth last year will have a significant impact on the global economic structure, and naturally becomes international news.The central government should announce that the fertility policy has been strictly controlled to relax, and it should have entered the encouragement stage. However, even if there are specific encouragement measures, it is difficult to make it up.Improve production efficiency and achieve "less people can do things".
The epidemic exacerbates the negative population growth
The decline in birth rate has become a trend
956 million babies born in mainland China last year, 10.41 million deaths, and a total population of 850,000 compared to the previous year.It is "rich and wealthy".However, the epidemic factors have a certain impact on the increase or decrease of the population. The average number of deaths per year in the past ten years is 9.846 million, and last year reached 10.41 million. Obviously, there is a phenomenon of "excess deth".One plus one reduction, which brings a negative population growth, I am afraid it will continue this year.
Obviously not a single factor for the negative growth of the population. The birth rate has continued to decline since the peak of 25 million people born in the 1980s. Among them, only 3 years have rebounded. Especially in 2016, the two -child policy was implemented.It has declined for 6 consecutive years, and last year fell below 10 million.Although the number of deaths has continued to increase, the increase is mild, the birth rate decrease is much greater than the increase in mortality, and it has become a trend. According to this law, if there is no other interference measures, the population growth will be maintained.
Western media pays special attention to that the decline in the young labor population in China will increase the burden on foreign consumers. The United States and countries that rely on imported Chinese goods will increase inflation pressure. The decrease in Chinese population will lead to decline in consumption power and threaten international brands.Sales.
China's formulation of any policy will not take foreign inflation or sales as the primary consideration, but the population increase or decrease has played a key role in the mainland market and economic structure.The consumer industry will shrink due to the reduction of the population. A more far -reaching impact is that the decline in the labor population has increased, and the tax rate should be increased.
The central government has long aware of the problem of population structure and aging. Since 2011, the two -child policy has been gradually implemented.It has begun to issue rewards ranging from 10,000 to 30,000 yuan to new babies. These encouraging fertility countermeasures will have little effect, because the area is 10,000 yuan, compared to the burden of high housing prices in large cities, it is a cup of water to pay for it without salaries without the salary of water without salary without the salary of water without salary without the salary of water.Establishing incentives of fertility.
Scholars and experts combine foreign experience and are recommended to issue cash subsidies, and they also need to give maternal and husband more vacation incentives, especially women's employment rights protection, and the cost of substantial reduction of fertility and education.In fact, the government's actions are not lacking. The revision of the Women's Rights Protection Law will take effect this year. Among them, it is stipulated that employers must not be due to pregnancy, maternity leave and breastfeeding, reduce the wages of female employees, or restrict the promotion of promotion.However, the implementation situation needs to be observed.
The key issue is that the government should establish a policy that no longer relax the reimbursement of family planning policies. Instead, it is fully modified to encourage policies and adopt comprehensive measures in various aspects to do everything to encourage fertility.The encouragement of fertility policies and measures in France and Japan has different degrees of effectiveness. How to implement it in accordance with the reference of the national conditions, the government will consider itself.However, the problem of solving the imbalance of the population structure cannot be considered from encouraging fertility policies.
High -tech service trade export income
Can make up for the loss of the labor population
Before the 1990s, the population policy was first based on "how good people are doing". Later, the domestic market increased its domestic market to increase domestic demand and drive economic growth with domestic demand.This policy has achieved the status of the world's world's factories, and it has been singing high in both production capacity and consumption.However, the cost of the world's factories is that industrial workers can only earn a meager processing fee and sacrifice environmental pollution.Excessive production capacity has caused excess capacity. Now China can digest these cheap and beautiful products in the steel, cement, machinery and other industries, no matter how they expand domestic demand.There are only two ways out of the way. One is to expand overseas markets to increase exports, but the international market is not controlled by China. In addition, the United States obstructs that even if it is opened in another Belt and Road, it is difficult to digest China's huge production capacity.Another way is economic transformation, developing high -tech products, and increasing value -added, you can achieve "fewer people can do things well."
In the past, China contracted infrastructure projects overseas, which can output products required by infrastructure such as steel and machinery, or workers, but they still earn "hard money". Now they can export smartphones, new energy vehicles, high -speed rail, and even even evenAircraft, making money with high -tech, can also sell patented technology in the future as a service trade export. Even if the labor population is reduced, it will not reduce output value and income.Norwegian population is only 5.42 million, GDP is ranked 16th, and the per capita output value is sixth.The US commodity trade deficit, but the annual service trade surplus is US $ 245.3 billion, which can also become China's goal.
If China can transform as soon as possible, increase high -tech output value, and make up for the reduction of manufacturing value densely relying on labor force. Even if the labor population decreases, it can have higher GDP and per capita output value. Farmers can stay in rural development characteristics.No need to go to high cities to be high in house prices, it is not a way out to solve the negative growth of the population.
