Guo Bingyun
Since the establishment of Keros, Russia has completed the transformation of the great power through three wars.
During the Northern War from 1700 to 1721, the Nordic power Sweden led by Russia led by Peter I defeated Karl XII.Russia has not only successfully captured the Baltic Sea, has an estuary of the sea, has changed from an inland country to a coastal country, and has become a Nordic power.During the French -Russian War from June to December 1812, Napoleon led 600,000 coalition forces to attack Moscow, and eventually lost to Russia with only 200,000 troops and defeated.
Russia not only eliminates the security threat from the Napoleonic Empire, but also plays the role of "European Gendarmerie" with this. The Tsar Alexander I was hailed by Europeans as Europeans, and Russia has become a European power since then.
The third war that changed Russia's history and enhanced Russia's international status was the Soviet -German war that broke out in June 1941.Hitler originally intended to defeat the Soviet Union for three to six months. The offensive of Nazi Germany was severely frustrated in the winter and eventually defeated. Although the Soviet Union paid a huge price, it became one of the two overlords of the world in the Cold War.
Under normal circumstances, cold winter is not good for all parties to participate in the war.In the three wars that changed the history of Russia, the two games were the extremely cold weather in winter blocked the attackers and helped Russia to reverse the war.As a result, the Russians have special feelings for winter, and kindly call it "winter" as "winter".The so -called "Winter General", in the context of the Russians, refers to winter for Russia during the war. It is like a general who is a god of heaven to help it defeat opponents.
The Russian and Ukraine War has been nearly a year from the early spring to the winter from 2022, and has experienced different climates of the year.Many people said when they faced Russia in the summer of 2022 that after the winter, Russia's powerful army and the "Winter General" that appeared many times in history will help it completely reverse the war.
However, the facts have shown that although the Russian army after just changing the coach has made some new progress on the battlefield, it is far from "reversing the war."At present, it is impossible to predict when the conflict is over, but it is certain that the Russian army's winter counterattack is difficult to occur at the end of this winter.
Why can Russia have defeated by the "Winter General" many times in history, but this time cannot "make the law"?There are three main reasons:
First, in the Russian and Ukraine War, Russia did not have the support of allies in military and economy.In the French -Russian war and the Soviet -German war, Russia faced the public enemy of Europe (and the United States) at that time, and Russia received military and economic assistance in the world's most powerful countries at that time.It is difficult to imagine that in the above two wars, if there was no military and economic assistance from Britain and the United States at the time, Russia could defeat.In this Russia -Ukraine War, Russia not only had difficulty getting economic and military assistance from other major powers, but also received severe economic sanctions from the most powerful countries and its allies. At the same time, its opponents also received huge military assistance in these countries.
In the final analysis, war is to compete for military and economic strength.Russia's economic strength has been weak enough to be inadequate.Due to the stagnation of the economy for many years, Russia's military development has also been constrained.Therefore, it is not surprising that Russia has frequent "collapse" in this conflict.
Second, Russia has no home advantage during this Russian and Ukraine War.During the French and Russian war and the Soviet -German war, Both Napoleon and Nazi Germany had invaded Russia's hinterland and Russia fought in the local area.Although economic and military strength is not as good as its opponents, Russia has a very obvious home advantage in logistics supplies and geographical geography.Coupled with strategic errors such as offensive officer and rivals, and the major influence of climate factor at critical moments on the war at critical moments.If Russia has no home advantage in the above two wars, the war situation is likely to be rewritten.
Third, in the Russian and Ukraine War, Russia lost its way of help. Only a few countries such as Bailu, North Korea, and Venezuela clearly supported Russia.Although China, India, Turkey and other countries imported a large amount of oil and natural gas from Russia, they did not clearly support Russia politically and morally.China has not publicly criticized Russia in international occasions, but Indian Prime Minister Modi explicitly stated at the Summit at the Summit in 2022 that it is not the era of war, Russia should quickly end the war in Ukraine.
In contrast to this, in the French and Russian war and the Soviet -German war, Russia is at least not "loses" internationally internationally.In international relations, morality cannot determine the victory or defeat of the war, but it is an important factor affecting the long -term direction of the war.
Againment method is one of the important methods of understanding the world and creating theory.However, only the simple induction of phenomena and ignoring the essence is easy to make an empirical error.
The author is an associate professor at the University of Sichuan Foreign Languages
