Source: Nikkei Chinese website
Author: Misako
The crude oil market, which has previously maintained a decline, has risen, setting a new high in about one and a half months.This is because the demand recovery expectations are strengthened as China relaxes the prevention and control measures of the crown disease.According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand is expected to reach a record high in 2023.Due to the impact on Russia's sanctions, supply growth is expected to slow down, and there may be pressure on price increases.
The WTI (Western Cascia) crude oil futures as an American crude oil indicator rose to about $ 82 per barrel on January 18, creating a new high since December 5 last year.At the beginning of the year, the background of the European and American economic deceleration fell to about $ 72.Subsequently, it turned to a rebound, which rose by about 14 % in the past two weeks.Beihai Brent crude oil futures, as the European indicator, also rose to about 87 US dollars on the 18th, setting a new high in about a month and a half.
The background of the reversal of the market is the strengthening of the demand recovery expectations brought by the prevention and control measures in China.In the January Petroleum Market Report released by the International Energy Agency on the 18th, it raised the forecast of global oil demand, saying that it would increase by 1.9 million barrels per day compared with the previous year, reaching 1.17 million barrels.If the forecast becomes a reality, the demand in 2023 will exceed 2019 (1500,000 barrels), which has a historical high before the crown disease.
At the same time, OPEC Organization (OPEC) also made an opinion in the monthly report released on the 17th that the demand for oil in 2023 will increase by 510,000 barrels per day to drive the growth of world demand.It means that global oil demand will increase by 2.22 million barrels a day to 11.77 million barrels, which has maintained the expected expectations of last month.
The International Energy Agency's analysis believes that about half of global demand this year has benefited from China's strict response prevention and control countermeasures.Strict epidemic prevention measures have become a stumbling block for China's economic activities. As the policy is optimized, industry and travel are expected to become active.
Policy transformation has also caused the rapid spread of the epidemic in China. At present, consumption cooling has occurred.The International Energy Agency imagined that China's demand has increased, but it means that "the form and speed of restarting are full of uncertainty", which lists China as one of the potential variables facing the oil market this year.
As another variable, the International Energy Agency pointed out Russia's supply risk.In December 2022, the European Union (EU) was embarked on Russia's crude oil, and then Russia's crude oil was exported to countries that have not participated in sanctions at a significant price price at a significant price.As a result, from the perspective of the overall supply of the world, the supply caused by sanctions has been greatly reduced.
By February, as a new round of sanctions, Europe will start the embargo of Russian oil products.According to the International Energy Agency, if sanctions have affected Russia's exports of products, "the balance of oil supply in early 2023 may quickly become pessimistic."
The current crude oil market is around $ 80 per barrel. Although it has risen, it is still at a low level compared with historical highs such as the $ 130 created after the Russian and Ukraine conflict.However, in both demand and supply, there have been signs of uncertain factors this year, and the risk of pushing oil prices again is also realized by the market.
