Source: China News Weekly
Author: Yuan Suwen, Wang Diya
As the local two sessions are held one after another, among China ’s 24 trillion GDP (regional GDP) cities across the country, 12 have shown the GDP growth rate of 2023, including Guangzhou, Suzhou, Ningbo, Jinan, Qingdao, Qingdao, Qingdao, Qingdao, Qingdao, and Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Changsha, Hefei, Wuhan, Fuzhou, Quanzhou and Nantong.
Their growth goals are generally dazzling. Except for Suzhou 5 %, the remaining cities are between 5.5 % and 7 %. The target growth rate will basically be higher than the actual growth rate of 2022.As the growth pole of China's regional economy, according to statistics released in 2021, the total GDP of these cities accounts for about 40 % of the country's total GDP.The performance of trillion GDP cities in 2023 will largely affect the growth rate of China's economy.
In fact, the economic growth goals released by these cities are indeed similar to the forecast of China's economic growth in 2023.The Economic Blue Books released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predict that China's economic growth will increase by about 5.1 % in 2023.Yao Yang, president of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, pointed out that 5 % is the "bottom line" of GDP growth in 2023.
Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told China News Weekly that 2023 will be a year when the economic recovery is reversed.
The central region may become a highlight of growth
Among the 12 cities above, the city with the highest economic growth target in 2023 is Zhengzhou and Changsha, with a target of 7 %.In addition, Hefei and Wuhan, also in central cities, also set the GDP growth goals above 6.5 %.Zhang Keyun, a professor at the School of Economics and Urban Economics of Renmin University of China, told China News Weekly that at the moment when cities in the eastern region are temporarily developing "ceiling", the core cities in the central region are the highlights of China's future growth.
"In the past, coastal areas are the forefronts of opening to the outside world. But after the coastal areas are open to a certain degree, they may touch 'ceiling', and the central region will become a new frontier for Singapore's future opening.The development trend of inland advancement. "Zhang Keyun said.
In addition, the high growth expectations of cities in central cities are also related to its smaller base.Zhang Keyun pointed out that Zhengzhou and Changsha are both GDP just over trillion in cities, with a small base. Therefore, although the growth rate is higher, the absolute increase is not very large.The same increment may be 3 % of Changsha, and it may be only 1 % for Beijing.
However, it is undeniable that, in the next, the trillion GDP cities in central regions such as Wuhan, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Hefei, etc. will play a strong leading role. Their development engine lies in industry and innovation.Taking Changsha as an example, its construction machinery field is influential internationally, and under the effect of the industrial chain, Changsha will also drive the development of surrounding cities.
Zhang Keyun believes that the current national unified market is to be constructed, and the market in the province and even within the region should be unified.Focusing on central cities, division of labor and cooperation between different regions should consciously change the industry from relatively dispersing to relatively concentrated, which is the so -called "one honor and honor".
Expand consumption at the priority position
Whether it is the "construction of international consumer center cities" proposed by Zhengzhou and Jinan, or promoting consumption proposed by Hefei, "innovative digitalization, quality consumption scenarios, develop new retail, e -commerce live broadcasts and other new formats", expand domestic demand, promote promotionConsumption is placed in an important position of economic development in 2023 by trillion GDP cities.
This is also the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference. "Efforts to expand domestic demand" is the first one of the economic work in 2023, and "should be placed in a priority position for restoration and expanding consumption."
Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Development Planning Research Institute of Tsinghua University, told China News Weekly that domestic demand is an important force for economic work in 2023, because the area with the most impact of the epidemic is consumption. After the optimization of the epidemic prevention policy,Consumption is also easier to recover.In fact, he has recently observed signs of consumption recovery and accelerated economic operation, which have very important reference significance for setting the economic growth goal.
Liu Yuanchun also believes that due to the impact of the epidemic, consumption has contracted veryer. With the peak of the impact of the epidemic, China's economic and social order will normalize, and consumption will rise.In addition, the country and localities will also introduce corresponding consumption stimulus policies, so consumption in 2023 has a relatively obvious recovery and recovery.However, he also pointed out that, compared with retaliatory consumption, it is likely that it is possibly a gradual consumption recovery.
In this process, trillion GDP cities will become a powerful engine.Dong Yu pointed out that they are all regional central cities, with strong consumption power and great recovery, which will play a positive role in economic operation in surrounding areas.
However, Dong Yu also emphasized that according to the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, pulling domestic demand is not simply stimulating consumption, but also related supply -side reforms. The latter is the main line of China's economic work in recent years.He pointed out that the boost of consumption will promote the upgrading of the industry and improve the efficiency of the economic operation system through the government's investment in infrastructure.
Investment is still keywords
It is not difficult to see that when expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption, investment is still keywords.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macro Economic Research Center of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview with China News and Weekly that one of the most important grasps expanding domestic demand is to do a good job of infrastructure construction.10 % will continue to increase in the next year.
In the government work report, the trillion GDP city Guangzhou City proposed that the release potential of effective investment will be released and investment growth will be tracted with major key projects.A few days ago, Chen Xu, deputy director of the Guangzhou Development and Reform Commission, said at the major project conference in Guangzhou in the first quarter that this year Guangzhou plans to arrange 1722 projects, with a total investment of over 6.5 trillion yuan (RMB, Same as the same as S $ 268.5 billion)The annual planned investment is 526.1 billion yuan, which is equivalent to an average investment of more than 40 billion yuan per month.
Among them, there are 149 projects with a total investment of over 10 billion yuan, and the annual investment of nine projects including Baiyun International Airport's third phase expansion project will exceed 5 billion yuan.Chen Xu pointed out that this year Guangzhou's annual investment in the two major areas of infrastructure and industry will exceed 20 billion yuan.At present, it is speeding up the progress of the project, so as to "open up, can open and open early."
Fuzhou, which is also a trillion GDP city, also started 177 major projects in the first quarter of the New Year, with a total investment of 98.3 billion yuan, involving industrial development, social and people's livelihood, infrastructure and other fields.
The data disclosed by other trillion GDP cities in government work reports can also see its confidence in investment.Zhengzhou and Hefei set the target of fixed asset investment in 2023 at 10 % and above, Zhengzhou is 15 %, and Hefei is about 10 %, which are higher than the previous year's target.
Liu Yuanchun pointed out that expansion of investment is indeed a key stable growth project in 2023. From the growth rate of investment, there will be a significant rise.However, this is also facing uncertainty, such as real estate.The government's investment in the recovery of the real estate industry is still a core of China's steady growth.However, how will the process of the bottoming recovery start, the bottom will appear in the second quarter of this year or the third quarter, which will have a significant impact on the entire year's investment.In particular, real estate adjustments are different from the past. The cycle will be longer and the bottom will be deeper.
Zhang Liqun also believes that investment in the real estate field is another major starting point for expanding domestic demand in 2023. It will work with infrastructure investment to drive enterprises to produce and invest, drive employment, drive residents' income and consumption, and then help the economy to recover.Zhang Liqun pointed out that it shouldPut the satisfaction of rigid and improved housing demand in a more important position, and actively solve the demand for housing in cities such as young people, new citizens, etc. In addition, under the principles of housing housing, related demand control policies should be accelerated.The rigidity and improving house purchases that were suppressed by many aspects were fully released in the past, and the fully recovery of the real estate market was supported.Of course, the government should also support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises and strive to "bottom line and keep the property."
Controlling the impulse to bond
Different from the past, while increasing investment, the impulse to lift the debt of local governments will be curbed.
On January 5, 2023, the Ministry of Finance announced the response letter of the CPPCC member on further preventing and resolving the risk of hidden debt risks in the CPPCC, mentioning the principle of adhering to the principle of non -rescue of the central government, and "whoever hugs who is the child who hugs."" ".Establish a market -oriented and rule of law debt default disposal mechanism, securely resolve the hidden debt stock, and realize the reasonable sharing risk of debtors and creditors in accordance with the law.
Liu Yuanchun pointed out that the principle of "no central government" announced by the Ministry of Finance is an important signal. "Local governments cannot lift their debts privately, this is the bottom line and the red line."It will make them further invisible debt, such as private levy expenses and fictional financial expenses.Today, the Ministry of Finance has issued a signal of "whose child who is a child", which means to break the rigid payment of this rigid redemption and strengthen the rigid constraints of debt.
"This is a signal to the market, so that all kinds of capital subjects cannot borrow money to local governments in violation of regulations." Liu Yuanchun pointed out that due to the renewal effect of the new government, many places are now anxious to get rid of the economic weakness caused by the epidemic situation.In state, the impulse to bond investment, the principle of "central government is not rescued" will curb these impulses to a certain extent. "Although it may suppress the rapid rise in investment in the short term, it is very important for the sustainable development of the local area. At the same time, it is also forThe control of China's financial risks plays an important role. "
This principle is especially important for trillion GDP cities.Liu Gang, director of the Institute of Economics of Nankai University, told China News Weekly that these cities will also have better healthy development.He pointed out that these cities are the mainstays of China. If their industrial structure is benign and represents the future, it means that China's economy is no problem and future.
However, in addition to adhering to the principle of "no central government", the fiscal system should be carried out.Liu Yuanchun emphasized that it is necessary to further match the financial power and rights of the local government, so that the government's investment behavior and debt -raising behavior are more sunny. The most important thing is to allow local government behavior to operate in the field of rule of law rules.
Zhang Liqun has an optimistic expectation of the local government's final resolving debt.He said that the debt difficulties of local governments are only phased phenomena. As the overall economic recovery of the Chinese economy has improved, the revenue of residents, enterprises and governments will continue to rise.Based on the long -term good fundamentals of China's economy, the government's ability and potential to raise funds are still huge, which can effectively resolve the current financial difficulties.
