Guo Bingyun: Sino -Indian relations will continue to be sluggish this year

Guo Bingyun

On the first day of 2022, the 10 places of the China -India Border Defense Forces in the actual control line of the China -India border region mutualized New Year blessings and gifted candy.This friendly event covers the main border defense or confrontation points of the four areas of China and India.New year's new measures can't help but imagine the new scene of China -India relations in 2022.

However, the facts show that the relationship between the two countries is still at the freezing point in 2022, highlighting that Indian Prime Minister Modi has not held any formal meeting with senior China.On March 26, 2022, Wang Yi, then Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister, visited India and met with India's national security adviser Dorovar and Indian Foreign Minister Su Jinsheng.This is the first time that the Chinese Foreign Minister has visited India since the La Wan River Valley conflict in June 2020. The significance is unusual, but Modi has not seen Wang Yi.

In late September 2022, both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Modi attended the Shanghe Summit held in Uzbekistan. This is the first time that the two attended the same offline meeting since the outbreak of the crown disease in 2020, but they did not hold it.There was no public report on the talks that the two had face -to -face communication.In November 2022, the Group of the Group (G20) Bali Island Summit, Xi Jinping and Modi grew at the dinner, shaking hands for more than five seconds.This is the first face -to -face communication between the two in recent years, but during the summit, the two did not have bilateral talks.

From November 29th to December 6th, the United States and India held a joint exercise of "Preparation of War 2022" at the North Akhandonbon, which is about 100 kilometers from the China -India border.On December 13, China -India officials confirmed that the Sino -Indian border defense forces had a conflict on the 9th at the side of the Chinese actual control line on the east section of the East Section of the Sino -Indian border.But the conflict quickly calmed down.It can be seen that although the Modi government has no intention of improving relations with China, it is also unwilling to have a military conflict with China.Looking at 2022, although China -India relations once appeared in the first -tier troops on both sides, on September 8th, began to escape from the recovery incident of contact in the Gaman Daban area, but generally did not go out of the trough.

Since the conflict of Callarvan, the Modi government has adhered to the principle of "border priority" in dealing with the relationship between China, that is, before the border issue was resolved, it did not restore the normal relationship with China.This is the fundamental reason why China -India relations cannot get out of the trough in 2022.

Data from the Ministry of Industry and Commerce of India show that in fiscal year from 2021 to 2022, India received US $ 83.6 billion (about S $ 110.5 billion) "the highest" foreign capital inflows in history.The major international institutions represented by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are optimistic about India's future economic development.They predict that in the next five to 10 years, the Indian economy will maintain an annual growth rate of about 7%.Modi's "Made in India" dream seems to be just around the corner.At the same time, after the outbreak of the Indian epidemic, because it was unable to purchase epidemic prevention substances from China in a timely manner, it was aware of the potential safety hazards of China ’s excessive reliance on China.The Modi government is determined to "de -China", and a large number of Chinese companies in India are targeted.The political and security of economic problems is another prominent feature of the Modi government's later Sino -Indian relations.

At the beginning of 2023, the Indian Sunday Guard has reported that Modi will bilateral meetings with developed countries such as the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, and Australia, the host of the host of the G20 summit this year.China, including sharing satellite pictures and other information with the above countries to reveal that China has violated written agreements many times in the Sino -Indian border area.

Since the official outbreak of the border between China and India in 1959, the two countries have not found an effective solution, which is evident.In the foreseeable future, the border issues of the two countries will still be unsolved.The Modi government decided to "internationalization" in 2023 to "internationalization" of the Sino -Indian border issue, which is obviously the result of their weighing gains and losses -when the long -term strategic competition between China and the United States, they are far greater than that they are in cooperation with China.

In 2023, Xi Jinping will go to India to participate in the G20 Summit. Whether the Chinese and Indian heads will hold a formal talks are not well known, but it is basically sure that even if the Xi Mo meeting was held at that time, the relationship between the two countries in 2023 was the main tone of the main tone of 2023.It will still be confrontation, and China -India relations will continue to be sluggish.

The author is an associate professor at the University of Sichuan Foreign Languages