Zhu Ming
"Do we want China to fail?" At a seminar organized by Western decision makers and commentators in New York, the participants read a report of this year's economic forecast. One of them askedSuddenly listed as a major risk in 2023- "Isn't this what we want?"
After all, US President Biden has repeatedly stated that he is willing to fight against mainland China in order to defend Taiwan.The European Union describes China as a "systemic competitor", and Britain is debating whether China has officially listed China as a "threat", and Japan has begun to act.But the facts may be more complicated.The West does not want to see that strategic opponents continue to develop strongly, but the Chinese economy, which is the largest trading partner in 140 countries worldwide, will also cause the world's economy to fall into disaster if it falls into a recession."Western decision makers resolve this dispute is to ask another question: either‘ do we want China to succeed or fail? ’, But‘ How do we control the continuous rise of China? ’” The New York Times columnist Rahman wrote.
Sino -US strategic competition includes multiple dimensions from ideological to geopolitics, but it is simply competition.The United States hopes that China will stop here after becoming a low -end manufacturing production base with Western investors who have greatly benefited from Western investors.trap".However, after the completion of industrialization, China did not stop, but instead entered the United States that it only belonged to its own.This exceeds the scope of the United States.
Due to the successful suppression of Europe and Japan, the success of the peaceful evolution of the Soviet Union, and China's "hiding light", when the United States joined the World Trade Organization in China, it wants to make China the condition that China becomes a junior product production base in the United States in exchange for in exchange for the conditions for the production base of the United States.China is absolutely obedient to the US leadership like Japan; the United States also wants to expand reform and opening up by China, affecting China's public opinion.
Later, the United States discovered that its control of control was lost, and economic development did not let Western democratic ideology flood in Chinese society.After China's economic proportion of the United States exceeds Japan's proportion of the United States that year, military strength (five generations, aircraft carriers and cruisers, hypersonic anti -ship missiles, etc.), growth momentum and manufacturing volume (more than the total of the Seventh Kingdom Group) is far from being far from being far from).Japan could be compared that year.China has always adhered to its independent foreign policy and development strategy, which is not like Japan, but more like the Soviet Union for the United States.
"Controlling the rise of China" has become the vision of Western policy. Leaving aside "arrogance", the argument about China itself shows that Western governments are still inconsistent.Generally speaking, the two world order models are struggling in the minds of Western decision makers: one is the old model based on globalization, and the other is a new model based on great powers.
The old model emphasizes economic development and the "win -win cooperation" of the Chinese; the "Belt and Road" initiative is a representative, and firmly believes that economic stability and trade growth are good for countries around the world.This model also encourages the past international cooperation methods in key issues such as climate change.However, the United States believes that China's national capitalism constitutes an unfair competition in the West without any chances of victory.
The new model believes that a richer China has enhanced national defense technology and military strength, and unfortunately has become a more threatening country.The point of view of the new model is that unless China has changed its own strings or ambitions are contained in external curb, global peace and prosperity will be threatened.The Russian and Ukraine War and China -Russia cooperation strengthened this view: Now it is most suitable for the world from the perspective of competition in big powers.
These two views are the differences between the two world views of liberalism and nationalism, and both contain the "interests" ingredients.A failure of China may pose a threat to the stability of the Western world, and the same is the case for a successful China.
For China, after further improvement of strength, the scope of interest in peaceful negotiations with the United States is the best solution.Although the United States has repeatedly provoked, China has not exposed the intention of breaking the world pattern, which was confirmed during the meeting of China and the United States in Bali.However, China may not be able to wait for the time to negotiate with the United States. The United States has been committed to blocking China with major leagues and comprehensive strategic competition. China ’s trust in the United States will gradually consume in conflict.
But unlike Russia: China ’s comprehensive national strength is more powerful, and the legal rights of core strategic demands (Taiwan) must be far better than Russia in eastern Ukraine; because they have been blocked for many years, they are vigilant.It is also stronger than Russia.China is confident to accept century challenges.
The author is the Deputy Dean of the Chengdu Seng Research Institute, China
