Financial perspective
This article first introduces the policy proposals of China's "guaranteeing diplomatic relations", "protection of housing companies" and "keeping the economy", and then discussed further discussions on the relevant measures launched by the Chinese government.
Under the request of the Chinese Central Government's order, the protection buildings in various places should be roughly met.As we published in the United Zaobao's article in June to July last year, this can not only resolve the risk of the diffusion of the "suspension of loan". When the rotten tail building is gradually delivered, the rotten tail building will be grateful to the central government.The people will also believe that society still has the righteousness and the central government is thinking about the people, and the people's hearts are even more attached.
Although the difficulty of keeping housing enterprises and the economy is more difficult, it has recently appeared better.For example, in the early days of the launch of the sixteen finance, the Bank of China and the Banking Insurance Supervisor can be said to use exhaustion to urge banks and assist institutions to provide debt issuance to "rescue endangered housing enterprises" to provide huge amounts of intent to the credit credit quota and automatically extend the expanse debt debt.In half a year, and providing measures such as "credit guarantee guarantee", but due to the sharp shrinking sales of housing companies (mainly because of the "rotten tail" crisis and macroeconomics caused by Evergrande's thunder), many real estate companies are still toward the ThunderGo.We also think that the policy has not been able to fall into practice without looking forward to it.
But when the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that "can save endangered housing companies" can use stock market financing, and officially stated that it would "precise epidemic prevention" and gradually relax epidemic prevention measures. Our views turned to quite positive.
To understand the transformation of our judgment, and whether China can finally keep the property, the housing, and the economy, we must first understand the facts:
1. The risk of bank loans and bonders is far greater than returns: First of all, the interest rates of bank loans and bonds are only several %. During normal and crisis, banks and investors are still willing to loan housing companies and buy internal housing debtEssenceHowever, when the housing company is on the verge of explosion, the investment of the debt buyer becomes zero at any time, and the bank and the trust may also lose heavy losses, so that there is no enough cause at all, and the above -mentioned risk of losing the above -mentioned big loss is borrowed to endangered housing companies.
Even under the "loan indicators" of the Bank of China and the CBRC, the bank is dragging and even to be treated.What's more, in order to rescue themselves earlier, endangered housing companies should use assets to borrow as much as possible. The new policies can make mortgages that are unqualified to qualified mortgages.Cup of water for money.
2. The profit of equity financing can be greater than risks: With the internal housing crisis caused by Evergrande's thunder, many endangered housing companies have fallen by 89 % to "almost closed prices."If you eventually go down, the remaining one or two % of the stock price will be zero.However, in case of the improvement of national policies or economic situations, the stock price can rebound sharply from the "close price". Even if it rebounds to the original price of the original price three years later, it means a generous profit.
Therefore, it is different from investors in banks and new debt. Equity financiers have profit attractions in participating in the rescue operation of endangered housing companies. The key is whether the government will provide a better environment to make them think of benefits.
Note: As the "old debt" also fell to "almost closed prices", if the government improved the environment, the holders of the old debt saw the opportunity to cross the crisis of endangered housing companies.Investment is zero, and it is a rescue plan for incentives to participate in debt restructuring and even debt -to -equity swaps.On the contrary, because endangered housing companies cannot issue "new debt" for the current ultra -low prices and ultra -high interest rates of the old debt, new debt investors will not accept only the interest of only one cent.Come to get out of danger, but equity financing is a direction that can quickly solve problems.
In short, because equity financing profits can be greater than risks, it is the direction that can reverse the situation the most.For example, with the recent introduction of the measures for housing rescue companies, the prevention of epidemic prevention measures has also been relaxed. The stock price of the internal housing has rebounded from a very low level, and even Country Garden, Agile and other real estate companies can temporarily eliminate the risk of thunderous thunder.Even Sunac, borrowing the stock price of the inner housing, he could start a debt restructuring with the creditors.
Due to the improvement of the situation, funds have joined the inner housing stocks, and the overseas speculators who have sold the housing stocks in the short retreat have retreated. Endemurate housing companies have a chance to have a chance.Getting up money.With the batch funds that allow housing companies to not explode for the time being, improve the economic environment and further support of the policy, shareholders have increased their buying price due to rising probability of housing enterprises.To improve the economic environment, further support of the policy, and even stabilize the housing market.
Of course, if there is no economic environment improvement and further support, or negative news, such as prematurely sold the internal housing stocks held by insurance funds, the real estate companies are not stopped at low prices, or even a serious decline or even the peripheryIn the financial crisis, the above -mentioned virtuous cycle still had a lot of opportunities to die halfway.
Subsequent policy suggestions
In order to avoid death and ensure that housing rescue companies can work in the first battle, the China Securities Supervision should also start the following support measures:
1. Support that real estate companies listed in Hong Kong will return to the A -share listing of A -share listing, and support the listing of listed real estate companies in A shares in Hong Kong.In addition to the funds raised by this measure, it is enough to help housing companies out of danger in one fell swoop, and another important role is to optimize the capital structure of housing companies.Different from over -reliance on debt financing in the past, the equity financing ratio of housing companies will increase significantly. As a result, when there is a crisis in the future, shareholders who are together with Gan must not be, as if banks and bond holders, requiring housing companies to have no money must pay interest and pay back.Repaying debts, thereby reducing the risk of economic crisis caused by similar problems in China in the future.Therefore, the author strongly suggested that China Secretary for rescue measures should be used to enhance China's immunity and recovery of the economic crisis.
2. Support funds through 45 % of bank financing, purchase office buildings, retail malls and hotels with rental income in real estate companies, and then pack the property into real estate trust funds for stockholders and shareholders who pursue higher stability rates andInstitutional subscription.Because the funds raised can be used to buy properties, packaging and selling, coupled with the aforementioned 45 % of bank financing, it will be several times that of the original funds to support housing companies to cross the crisis.The housekeeper industry allows nationals and institutions to have more rational and stable investment channels outside the stock market and housing market of "high fluctuations and speculative", thereby reducing China's risk of macroeconomic crisis in China in the future.
With the first heavyweight and second medium -order rescue measures, the internal housing crisis should be gradually resolved.
Other valid and effective suggestions at the same time are imitating methods to rescue Citi Bank and AIG from 2008 to 2009. The Ministry of Finance uses hundreds of billions of yuan provided by the central bank.At the price of "almost closed", buying the number of equity directly from endangered housing companies.It must be emphasized here that it is only enough housing companies to temporarily pass the crisis, and then they can be self -reliant and the China -volume funds that can raise self -rescue in the stock market.80 % of the equity).
After the final danger of housing companies, the Chinese Ministry of Finance can choose the following China and Senki to leave the field: 1. Zhongce is imitating the United States' market batch in the market.Although the U.S. Treasury Department prematurely approved the equity of Citibank held in the ultra -low price in 2010, the profit still reached $ 12 billion.
Second, one of the strategies is to inject these internal housing stocks into social security funds to help reduce the long -term income and expenditure gap caused by the social security fund caused by the "population aging problem".
Three, the second, the second strategy is to imitate the Singapore government investment company and Temasek model, allow the Ministry of Finance or the SASAC to hold these internal housing stocks, and pay dividends with its return to normal as a source of national fiscal revenue (Singapore government investment companyThe government's income every year has now reached 6%of fiscal revenue).
Finally, although the efforts to help endangered housing companies obtain bank loans and debt financing earlier, because of the problem of "borrower risk is greater than returns", it seems that it is more effective.The arrow will begin to produce great efficiency, thereby accelerating the solution of the problem in the later period.
Fortunately, the China Securities Regulatory Supervisor has further optimized the above -mentioned proposal into Hong Kong housing stocks.Hong Kong's internal housing stocks with the most foreign debt raised funds as soon as possible to avoid thunder and crisis -if you apply directly to the A -share listing, it will be delayed for a long time, which can be said to be urgent.
The author Ye Xiuliang is a part -time lecturer at the Department of Economics of the Hong Kong Baptist University
Auxiliary Professor of the Department of Economics of Nanyang Institute of Technology
Ye Jinyang is an undergraduate student at the Department of Economics and Management of Oxford University
