Du Zhiyuan

British Prime Minister Suonak and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Wenxiong signed a "significant" new defense agreement in London on January 11, the mutual benefit admission agreement, which is regarded as the most important agreement in Britain and Japan for more than a century.EssenceIt allows the two countries to plan and carry out larger and more complicated military exercises and deploy the army with each other.Britain became the first European country to sign such agreements with Japan, and Japan and Australia also had similar agreements.The in -depth involvement of the military in the United Kingdom to the Asia -Pacific region will trigger a serious "window break effect".

First of all, this military agreement reflects several major changes in the Asia -Pacific political and military pattern:

1. The leadership system led by the United States, and turns to the modular cooperation system led by the allies.

For decades, the United States' alliance in Asia has been linked through a shaft -spoke mode.With the intensification of the Sino -US game and the opportunities of the trials brought about, some American allies, including Japan, Britain, and Australia, have begun to try to act as a hub, assume the main character of power chain, and change their affiliated relationships.The mutual access agreement is the first time such a transaction in Japan and another country outside the United States. It is a clear information for Britain to get rid of the European Union and enter the Asia -Pacific.For the two countries, the agreement means that the two countries have entered the essential stage of military strategy autonomy and a strategic hedge.

In addition, Japan is working with the British to jointly develop the next generation of fighters, marking that Japan has launched major industrial defense cooperation outside the United States since World War II.The American allies are actively promoting the leadership system of the "core -edge" led by the United States, turning to the "core -core" modular cooperation system led by the allies.

2. European countries have two routes of "Germany, Japan Australia+" and "French India+".

The deepening of military cooperation between Japan and Britain means that Japan may eventually join the AUKUS Group in Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States.At the same time, France secretly established the AUKUS Group and the dissatisfaction with its arms sales contracts, which prompted him to turn to strategic allies India.The cooperation between the two countries has also deepened, and France even considers 70%of the "gust" fighter production line to India.

In addition, Germany is also close to Japan, such as the determination of the Japanese military exercise for the first time after the World War II in the German fighter aircraft, and the determination of the Japanese and German "2+2" talks mechanism.Just as the reporter from Germany, Miyaki, pointed out: "In the eyes of Japan, Germany is one of the few trusted partners in the world. Coordination and cooperation with Germany is very important to deal with Russia and China in Japan."It is said that the United Kingdom and Japan are always considered to be connected with the United States, and cooperation with France will be easier than cooperation with Britain and Japan.At the same time, France has strategically emphasized its independent independent position with India.

Three, the Asia -Pacific pattern will be characterized by "dual opposition, multi -pole development".

The clear curb of the United States' rise in China has determined that the Asian situation will take the Sino -US dual strategic game as the core, but the strategic rise space brought by the Sino -U.S.Provide opportunities.They do not choose a strategy completely poured into the US camp, but instead encourage and cooperate with the United States to act in China. At the same time, they use American asylum and allies to hold groups to accelerate the establishment of the middle zone space.Therefore, the future Asia -Pacific pattern will be characterized by the Sino -US binary game. At the same time, the participation of large countries such as India, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom will continue to strengthen in Asian affairs; China will also face dual pressures that curb pressure and balance pressure at the same time.Essence

In addition, Japan and Britain signed a military agreement to bring more overflowing effects:

1. Foreign countries such as Germany, Italy, Canada and other regions will imitate the existence of Britain to strengthen the Asia -Pacific military existence.

The Asia -Pacific region has gradually become the center of the global game. Participating in it is also an important way to show identity in other major powers.It has great interest, but its "Indo -Pacific Strategy" has been secretly not announced until it was recently introduced.With the bold promotion of cooperation with these countries such as Japan, especially military cooperation, the density and strength of cooperation have continued to strengthen, and the improvement of the identity of the "Global Britain", other countries are bound to adopt more radical and bold marching measures.Especially in military cooperation.

2. "Trade NATO" and "Military NATO" began to be transplanted to the Asia -Pacific region after "NATO".

In terms of "Trade NATO", Western countries, which are dominated by the United States, are trying to establish a global industrial chain with the west as the core of China.Especially through the industrial transfer of India and Vietnam, and the negotiations of the free trade zone, they have the demands of alternative China to become core industrial nodes, which has also greatly accelerated the advancement of the "Trade NATO".In terms of "NATO", as South Korea and Japan have joined the NATO Network Defense Center, Australia submitted to join the application, and "European and American network branches", "East Asian Network Branch" and "Indo -Pacific Network Branch" established around Russia, North Korea and ChinaEstablish a "Internet NATO" in Asia.In terms of "Military NATO", the establishment of AUKUS in the United States and Britain, Australia, and Australia, the signing of military agreements in Japan and Britain, and the strengthening of the military relations of Japan and Germany have all shown that "Trade NATO" and "Military NATO" are being transplanted to the Asia -Pacific after "NATO".area.

Third, the "third country cooperation" of the power outside the United States will strengthen the squeezing situation of China.

While supporting the United States, Japan and Britain have their own benefits.In contrast to the necessary response to the Western claims that these alliances are "aggression" in China, or prevent "today's Ukraine becomes Tomorrow's East Asia", their alliance tries to promote the entire region's ability to project their strength.For the United States, although the "third country cooperation" is not conducive to strengthening the United States leadership, it can solve the dilemma of the allies' "selection stations" and avoid the allies from falling into the Chinese camp.

For large regional countries, strategic autonomy and union can increase the chips to China relations, require more benefits to share and divide the scope of influence.For China, the "third country cooperation" alleviates the direct curb pressure of the United States coalition alliances to China, but if the pressure on the balance between these countries is not good, it is easy to transform into curb pressure.

Japan -English military agreement will lead to serious "window break effects". Greater foreign countries such as Canada and Germany have followed up, and India, Japan and other countries also have the "third road" between China and the United States.From the perspective of active construction and passive acceptance, it is a win -win solution for them. They can freely launch strategic autonomous dialogue and cooperation without the requirements of the China -US "selection station".For China, on the one hand, it is necessary to consider how to solve the strategic contributions and targets from the United States; on the other hand, it is necessary to consider how to solve the scope of the sphere of influence of balanced behaviors such as the strategic cooperation between other big powers.

The author is a scholar at the School of Political and International Relations of East China Normal University

The clear curb of the United States' rise in China determines that the Asian situation will take the China -US dual strategic game as the core, but the strategic rise space brought by the Sino -US game, such as India, France, Britain, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, and Germany.Wait for the opportunity.