Xu Shijie
The complicated ups and downs of 2022 have passed, and the wind and clouds are quiet in 2023.Looking back at 2022, this beautiful planet was plagued by three major events: the first thing was that the coronary virus was still mad mutant and endangered all mankind; the second thing was that Russia suddenly invaded Ukraine; the third thing was the United States and China.Between the two most powerful countries in the world today, they continue to compete in a full range of fierce competition in the areas of politics, economy, diplomacy, military, technology, and technology.
At the end of last year, Chinese officials suddenly abandoned the dynamic zero -term policy of the epidemic, which caused the mutant virus to infect hundreds of millions of people in mainland China in a short period of time, causing an impact of an impact of an epidemic.The Russian -Ukraine War was still in the fierce development. The Ukrainian military and civilians resisted the invasion of the Russian army and received the full support of politics, diplomacy, and military weapons led by the United States in politics, diplomacy, and military weapons.At present, the war is still in the worst state, and the two sides are seriously casualties.The comprehensive competition between China and the United States is also in the fierceness. Although both sides strive to avoid the competition fall into the war, both sides and even the world are preparing various preparations for possible Sino -US conflicts.
Looking at history, human catastrophe is more popular and large -scale war.
The century -old epidemic has been raging human beings for three years. Although most countries, including China and the United States, have adopted a helpless strategy to coexist with the virus, the virus is still violating humans crazy.As the two major vaccine producers in the world, China and the United States have also produced and used the most vaccines, but they still fail to comprehensively and effectively stop virus raging.Between China and the United States, humans have caught human beings in a helpless situation in global issues such as virus infection, economic growth, environmental deterioration, and stopping the Russian and Ukraine War.
Because Russia's economic strength is difficult to support the cruel war against Wu for a long time, its further weakening may lead to failure to the Ukraine War.When Russia was weak to collapse in 2023, it was not an illusion whether the world was in a desperate situation because of its huge nuclear weapons out of control.Whether the dispute between China and the United States will ease in 2023 is still a paradox.
A video of Musk, the richest man in the world technology, was circulating on the Internet. He was asked: "How do Tesla view the geopolitical risks between the United States and China?" Obviously, in the face of this worldwide problem, Musk also hesitatedAt first he said that he wanted to escape the answer, but after hesitation, he still said, "What I look forward to is peace and respect."
Musk's words point out between China and the United States. In fact, it is also the two valuable things that are most needed between countries around the world -peace and respect.
After the most important political incident of the 20th National Congress of the mainland government, China has adopted a national policy coexisting with the virus, which is consistent with the current policies of most countries.However, the large -scale infection of the 1.4 billion population has also caused various concerns. Many countries have taken certain restrictions on the visiting Chinese people.China has changed its foreign minister. Obviously, the political decision -making level wants to improve the relationship with the United States and the Western countries led by the United States and its leadership, as well as re -focusing on the development of the domestic economy.
In the past year, China has adopted a "impartial" strategy against the Russian and U -wars.It is quite friendly but does not give military support strategies.Such a Chinese policy enables Russia to register military forces from the Far East with China to invest in special military operations against Ukraine.China can also use friendly relations with Russia to adopt a fairly effective military deterrent to the United States and Japan alliances in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the East China Sea.For example, because of the then American speaker Pelosi insisted on visiting Taipei, it has adopted an unprecedented "locking Taiwan" military operation and announced eight measures against the United States.A number of collaborative or cooperation with the US official.
Although the author is not a military expert, it is capable of comprehensively sealed control (sea seal, air -sealing, electromagnetic blockade, etc.) for the Chinese PLA now, and can also devastate all the targets of all major military in Taiwan, and and other targets of Taiwan.Do not hold doubt.As for the full landing of the island, the PLA has a certain ability.However, unless the Taiwan Army quickly collapsed under the blow of the PLA's first wave of multi -wave firepower, if the resistance was fighting, the PLA would need 500,000 or even millions of people to go to the island to fight.This is a difficult test for the PLA's fighting capacity for the island of the PLA for a period of time.
In addition to the United States, if the PLA adopts a "non -peaceful way" solution to Taiwan issues, American allies such as Japan, Britain, Australia, Canada, South Korea, and the Philippines are also likely to follow up with armed interference, especially Japan.If something happened, there was something in Japan "shouted.Japan once occupied and colonized Taiwan for half a century.From a historical expression, Japan is definitely the country that actively intervene in Taiwan affairs unless the United States suppresses and limits it.
In 2022, the world has been exhausted under the widespread popularity of viruses and the torture of the Russian and Ukraine War. If China and the United States will be armed in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and other areas of Asia in 2023, the consequences are unimaginable.UN Secretary -General Gutres issued a strong warning recently: misunderstandings and misjudgments will bring humans to the abyss of nuclear destruction.
As one of the three largest nuclear weapons in the world, Russia has been trapped in the Russian and Ukraine War, and its risk of using nuclear weapons is rising rapidly.If China and the United States trigger direct confrontation and war on the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea or the Korean Peninsula, human beings will really fall into the abyss of self -destruction.Therefore, "peace and respect" is not only the need for China and the United States, but also the urgent need of the entire world.
The author is a special professor of Fudan University
Honorary professor at the University of Hong Kong
