Liu Jincai: Challenge and opportunities for the discussions of the Cross -Strait of th

In 2022, the Democratic Progressive Party was defeated by shouting "Anti -China Baozai" in the local election of Taiwan. The leadership of the party's leadership in the party proposed to adjust the cross -strait discussion.replace.

The reason why the DPP is willing to adjust is the main reason for the "anti -China -China conservation platform" in the marginal utility of the local elections, especially under the Kuomintang's operation of the "Ticket Voter Entry Party and Youth on the Battlefield".The role of motivating voters to carry out political mobilization has also declined, which has led to the challenges and opportunities of the DPP's cross -strait discussions and adjustments.

First of all, the effect of the "Anti -China Baozai" effect is different in local elections and central level elections.After several reviews after the DPP, Zheng Wencan, who was responsible for reviewing the defeat of the election campaign and the former mayor of Taoyuan, declared that the party's identification of "anti -China -China" was anti -operating as "war fear", resulting in serious frustration of the green camp.The Democratic Progressive Party wants to replace the "Anti -China Baozai" route with "Peace -Baozai", mainly due to losing the nine -in -one local elections.

Although the "Anti -China Baozai" route is difficult to play in the local elections in 2018 and 2022, it is difficult to play a role in the 2020 presidential election and legislators elections.In response to the "two -system Taiwan plan" of mainland leaders in early 2019, Tsai Ing -wen publicly denied the "1992 Consensus", using Hong Kong to counter the STDs to raise the "anti -China -China Taiwan" volume, and finally won the presidential election.Looking forward to the 2024 election, if the policy of continuously suppressing Taiwan's policy and the continuous adopting policy of the United States to attract Taiwan, the DPP may still re -apply.

Secondly, the Democratic Progressive Party or the Kuomintang operates the "political crisis card".In fact, whether it is the Kuomintang's demand for "voting to vote for the DPP, the youth on the battlefield", or the DPP demand "vote for the Kuomintang and Taiwan to become Hong Kong", both parties have the collective mobilization of the political crisis.The blue camp operates the marginal risk of war, and the green camp operates the sense of death; the former is the immediately risk of war, and the latter has time delayed effects.Proposal "Peace and Taiwan" means that the two sides of the strait should not be "stopped war". In the end, it should be terminated by cross -strait hostile status and signed a "cross -strait peace agreement" or "cross -strait peace and stability framework agreement".

After the mainland's policy on Taiwan, the Taiwan policy emphasizes anti -Taiwan independence and anti -interference. If the DPP wants to reach the goal of "Peace and Taiwan", the mainland will inevitably demand the abolition of the referendum platform independence party platform and normal state resolution.These two documents show that the DPP still adheres to the pursuit of legal Taiwan independence and Taiwan's authentic names. It is not limited to "pragmatic Taiwan independence", flexible Taiwan independence, cultural Taiwan independence and gradual Taiwan independence.

Furthermore, the mainland emphasizes the goal of "anti -independence to promote unification" to Taiwan's policies and strengthens its blow to Taiwan independence.From opposing Taiwan independence, disposal of Taiwan independence to curb Taiwan independence, frustration of Taiwan independence to crushing Taiwan independence; and expanding the definition of Taiwan independence, and establishing a list of punishment for Taiwan independence list."Anti -China Baozai" means that Taiwan must adopt the United States and Japan's strategy of resistance to China, inlaid in the U.S. Indo -Pacific strategy, and become a member of democratic Chinese democracy. At the same timeSuppressing, and Taiwan will also be in a state of fatigue.Such unilateral operations triggered the "anti -countermeasure" policy interaction, causing cross -strait relations to fall into a vicious circle.

If the Democratic Progressive Party wants to achieve the purpose of "peace and defending Taiwan", it must publicly declare "abandoning independence" and deal with the national goals of the "one party and two resolutions" within the party.The referendum Taiwan independence party platform establishes the goal of the "Republic of Taiwan" with citizen voting procedures; Taiwan's future resolution documents revealed that the Republic of China is the country name of the Taiwan Peng Golden Horse in accordance with the Constitution; the normal state decision -making document proposes a referendum system, and participates in the United Nations and Taiwan in the name of Taiwan.Name.

In the end, if the DPP does not give up provoking the mainland as a strategy of maximizing the votes, and does not give up the initiative of the initiative "anti -China", "revenge" and "anti -China", it will not abolish the "referendum Taiwan independence party platform" and will not accept "Instead, the consensus of 92, instead claims that "the neighboring countries on the other side", "cross -strait do not belong to each other" or "pragmatic Taiwan independence" and "Taiwan is not part of China".The goal of protecting the platform is tantamount to seeking fish.

The Democratic Progressive Party's initiative to "Anti -China Baozai" route is not only not conducive to sustainable governance, but also not conducive to Taiwan's security.Leaders have publicly denied the "1992 Consensus" and did not accept the "one country, two systems", and proposed the "anti -China -China" line, claiming that "the theory of other countries in the mainland" and "the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are not affiliated with each other."Circulation and irresistible damage to cross -strait relations can be described as irreversible, including stopping diplomacy, unable to participate in three international organization conferences, reducing land passengers to visit Taiwan, and landing in Taiwan.The suspension of land -controlling land has caused losses for the economic rights and interests of agricultural and fishermen, and it is difficult to estimate.

If Lai Qingde wants to win the Taiwan election, cross -strait policies will adopt the middle route.If it is considered to take the "anti -China -Baozai" route, it is difficult to achieve the goal of "protecting the Taiwan", and the "pragmatic Taiwan independence" and "Taiwan are not part of China" should be adjusted to avoid the stereotype of the exterior Taiwan independence route.The DPP has recognized the Republic of China, and it can publicize the needs of "legal Taiwan independence"; it is to recognize the Republic of China and consider the relationship between the Republic of China and the history of Chinese history."Part of" ", such" peace -protecting Taiwan ", has the foundation of the foundation and social support.