Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Liu Yanting

On January 5th, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered that at the request of Patriarch Kirill, Russia, the Russian army would be at 12 noon on the 6th local time until the late night of the 7th.So far, 36 hours of ceasefire at the Ukrainian front to celebrate the Christmas of Orthodox Church.This action was the first time that Putin announced a comprehensive ceasefire since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, and it was a single side of the Russian army, not Russia and Ukraine.

Faced with Putin's move, all parties responded to each other.US President Joe Biden pointed out that Putin proposed a seminars to fight for a chance to breathe.European side is also reluctant to evaluate positively. For example, Charles Michel, chairman of the European Council, said that "Russia unilaterally announced the suspension of fire, just like illegal mergers and referendums."Olaf Scholz has called with Biden, and decided to provide Ukraine with a "weasel" infantry chariot and a "Patriot" air defense missile system.According to the plan to provide the "Patriot" air defense missile system, the governments of the two countries will also conduct training on their respective weapon systems on Ukrainian soldiers.

Ukraine as one of the warfares rejected Putin's proposal.Ukraine President Volodymyr ZELENSKYY said that Russia plans to use a 36 -hour ceasefire to "cover" to prevent the Ukrainian army from advancing in Donbas and introduce more equipment; Presidential Office consultant MykhailoPodolyak also pointed out that the so -called "ceasefire" is a malicious trap and a war political propaganda of the Russian East Church. "Russia must completely withdraw from the occupation land in Ukraine to have a chance to temporarily truck."

Between the recovery, the Christmas ceasefire seems to be spoken by each other. After all, the front of the front will change. If the Ukraine does not want to respond to the ceasefire, the Russian army can only continue to fight.In fact, from the bad trust between Russia and Ukraine, Russia's unilateral ceasefire is very difficult to get a positive response from Ukraine. After all, both parties will think that the other party may take the opportunity to attack.However, Putin's proposal should also include other political computing in addition to thinking that Ukraine may promise.

If Ukraine agree

First of all, although the probability is extremely low, if Ukraine also promised to stop fire for 36 hours, some Russian troops will be able to get a chance to rest as described by Biden.

Since the outbreak of conflict on February 24, 2022, the Russian and Ukraine War has continued for nearly one year, and the two armies have gradually become a tangible war.In addition to the short -term opening of the humanitarian corridor at the beginning of the war, the frontline operations of the two sides have not stopped. Recently, the Ukraine has launched the Himras rocket to the Donetsk temporary barracks and caused 89 Russian army to die.It is the attack with the largest number of deaths and injuries since the beginning of the war.

Although this incident does not reduce the overall combat power, it will cause a certain blow to morale.Therefore, if you can stop the fire in Christmas, for the front line of the Russian army, it should be a rare opportunity to rest and temporarily relax the nervous nerves in the atmosphere of the holiday.Of course, this does not mean that the Russian army will slow down the combat effectiveness. From the perspective of announced mobilization and proposed military reform plans, Russia is preparing for the long -term preparation of the war, which must not only expand the scale of the army and increase the military production rate.Temporary ceasefire is to continue fighting in the future.

and the reason why Putin proposed so is that it is possible to accept the possibility of acceptance of Ukraine, although the probability is very low.

Once, the Orthodox Church in Ukraine has a lot of people.According to the results of the investigation released by the Razumkov Center in Ukraine Think Tank in 2018, 71.7%of the Ukrainians claimed that they had religious beliefs, of which about 67.3%belonged to the Orthodox Church, and 7.7%were unprecedented sects.Christians, 9.4%belong to Christians of the Greek Catholic Church in Ukraine, 2.2%are Protestant Christians, 0.8%are Roman Catholic Christians.Among them, the East Trusted Trusts accounted for a stable majority regardless of the east of pro -Russia or the western part of the European Europe. On the basis of this, Putin believed that it would be necessary to stop the fire on Christmas and have a certain space.

In the second, not only did the Russian army need to rest, but the Ukraine also needed to breathe.The war has continued for nearly a year, and the Russian army was not announced until September 2022 that part of the mobilization was announced. However, Ukraine had been mobilized nationwide at the beginning of the war.On this basis, Ukraine may agree to the Russian army's temporary ceasefire proposal, and for the future fighting preparations, they have a brief rest.

However, as mentioned earlier, in view of Russia's eyes, the mutual trust is extremely low, the hatred is deep, and the probability of being acceptable to the ceasefire is not high.I believe that after the front is more than the opposite side, I choose to propose this high probability that it will fail.As for the positive benefits under the rejection of the context, it can be attributed to a sentence: expressing as soon as it is expressed, and it is meaningful to propose itself.

Turkish Russia's political double dance

Regardless of whether Ukraine refuses or not, this Christmas ceasefire initiative can be regarded as a political double dance performance of Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdo?

According to Turkey, Russia's move is a response to the efforts of earth -promoting talks.When Erdogan and Putin called on January 5, it was suggested that Russia should announce unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine, so that Turkey has more room to talk about; Putin responded that if Kya accepted the Russian army to belong to Russia,Russia is convenient to talk to Ukraine.The above conversation revealed the bottom line and intention of Russia's current negotiations.

With a long -term trend of war, although Russia has carried out planning and military reform, it also knows that the longer the war time, the higher the internal and external uncertainty encountered by Russia, so it is no night dream, that is, early negotiations are negotiated early.Solving the best strategy.However, despite this, it is impossible for Russia to buy the beads and easily give up the actual control of Crimea and the "publicly invested in Russia", because although this move has the opportunity to end the war, it also means that the Putin regime's political suicideEssenceTherefore, although Russia wants to resolve conflicts with negotiations, it is not unprecedented or conditions. "Ukraine must recognize Russia's current situation." Obviously, it is Moscow's current negotiation bottom line.

Turkey has erupted from the Russian and Ukraine War, and it is actively showing its ability to reconcile Dingbing.On March 10, 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba held talks in Turkey. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt? AVU? Lu? Lu?, For the first time after the war began, Russia and Ukrainian high -level contact; on July 22, 2022, under the witness of Turkey and the United Nations, Russia and Ukraine signed the Black Sea Grain and Fertilizer Export Agreement. The first batch of Ukrainian grains started on August 1st.Output has a lot of praise for Turkey.

Erdogan personally talked to Putin in person, and also extended the above -mentioned efforts, that is, he hopes to restart the Russian and Ukraine negotiations under the mediation of Turkey; but Ukraine has continued to consolidate himself under the spread of war in recent months, and continues to consolidate himself.Conditions for negotiations: Unless the Russian army withdraws from Ukraine territory, Ukraine will not agree to negotiations.The difficulty of the Russian and Ukraine Line has caused the negotiations to fall into a deadlock. In addition, after the Halkov counterattack in September, Ukraine has more blood to fight the Russian army.It is difficult to return to the negotiating table.

But as mentioned earlier, the expression arrived, and Russia's ceasefire proposal can express two attitudes.

First, no matter how much the audience is, Russia wants to show the world that Ukraine, instead of Russia who refuses to negotiate peace, is not willing to negotiate.Earlier, the West has criticized the Russian army on Christmas (December 25thOn the day), the New Year's Day was launched to prevent the Ukrainian people from festival; Putin's action intended to show Russia's respect for traditional festivals, and the sincerity of being willing to stop the fire unilaterally, and let the ball back to Ukraine, although the people with eyes can see it.Russia does not think that Ukraine will return goodwill.

Second, even if the unilateral ceasefire initiative flows invisible, Russia still shows full trust in Turkish mediation and recognizes Turkey's suggestions.The presidential election was re -elected in June.Right now Erdogan has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, and the Pakistan Senate Speaker Muhammed Sadik Sanjrani publicly expressed his nomination reason: Erdogan promoted the peace talks of Russia, and the Black Sea Grain Corridor Agreement also made a lot ofThe region is exempted from devastating famine.In view of the surge in inflation under the Turkish interest rate cut policy, economic issues will be a flaw of Erdogan's campaign; they will be nominated for Nobel Prize and mediation of Russia and Ukraine., Choose to pay.

From this context, the proposal of the ceasefire seems to fail, but the parties participating in it are not all gained.