Pillow grass

One of the most important events for the global economy in 2023 happened today (January 8).After 1016 days of closed epidemic, China has completely unlocked the border since today and re -open to the public.

After suppressing the mood of eager to go abroad for nearly three years, Chinese passengers can finally travel.

According to statistics, from 2020 to 2022, the number of Chinese outbound tourists has reduced 400 million.Data from travel platforms show that the news of the open border between China has driven out of the number of outbound tourism search. Users are mainly from Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. The most search destinations include New Matthew, Japan, South Korea, and the United States and Britain.

However, before they start retaliatory tourism, there are still some baggage to remove.

Outside, the open border during the peak of the epidemic in China has triggered concern for many countries around the world, and has strengthened the prevention and control of Chinese immigration passengers.

Inside, if the beginning of the epidemic, the most representative picture is the "toilet paper chaos" of the global supermarket. As the epidemic comes to the "fast peak" stage, it swept Singapore, Canada and New Zealand last year.The "passport crisis" is also likely to appear in China.

After the short -term conditions in inside and outside are resolved, there is also a "wait" wait -and -see attitude.

Last year, when other countries were opened one after another, search engine Google analyzed high growth search, revealing a binary nature of people's collective emotions, optimistic and concerned, desire but cautiously affect consumer demand and intangiblely affect consumer demand.And behavior.

There are indeed many unpredictable things.Natural disasters and human disasters are interacting.

Continuous inflation has led to the continuous staged labor disputes that have caused strikes in various places to disturb public services such as transportation and flights.Extreme weather makes travelers encounter typhoon heavy rain, flooding, cold flowing snow, and hot waves, and it is no longer a distant thing that is nothing to do.In addition, radicals, extracurricular, and populism have begun to restless in all corners of the world. The catalytic violent emergencies may only increase and not decrease.

Of course, it must not be wrapped in what may not happen.The long -lost travel must still make people go.

For the Asian and global economy, the increase in Chinese outbound tourists and consumers will have a spillover effect that boosted and supports.According to Goldman Sachs's assessment at the end of last year, in addition to being able to actively affect tourism benefits, China can also drive commodity imports.Hong Kong, Thailand and Singapore are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries. The estimated growth rate of GDP (GDP) in China is 7.6%, 2.9%, and 1.2%in turn.

However, China's re -opening up also has the effect of output inflation, which can control monetary and fiscal policies around the country, while high risks that are highly risky by foreign imports of economies.The Goldman Sachs report pointed out that the increase in demand for petroleum in China will promote global oil prices to rise by $ 15 per barrel (about S $ 20), affecting economies such as Hong Kong and Singapore.

For passengers in other places, the most intuitive feelings should be the change of environmental density.

In the past year, many relatives and friends around them have already opened the retaliatory travel model. Some people have gone abroad five times, and they have pursued the sea wide sky that has been empty for two years.

After returning to China, in addition to sharing what they saw and heard, part of them could not help but show the non -crowded, no traffic, no noise to the popular tourist destinations.

Perhaps, such experiences will become less, but it will also depend on how these destinations plan and manage.However, letting go of any burden and open minds is not the state of the travel itself.

In any case, enjoying the fun of traveling will be a ritual that many people formally say goodbye to the epidemic model.

(the author is the director of the Chinese Media Group's Outstanding Strategy Director Sheny@SPH. COM.SG)