Lin Yuan
In the local election of Taiwan in 2022, the DPP was defeated, and many important figures were created. From Tsai Ing -wen, Su Zhenchang, to Lin Jialong, Cai Qichang, Chen Shizhong, to Zheng Wencan, Lin Youchang, etc.Here, Zheng Wencan, who is supplemented by the mayor of Taoyuan.After he was revoked by Taiwan University, he was no longer suitable to serve as the president of the executive, and he could not compete for the party's chairman or participated in the presidential election of the party. His star status was over, and his future political prospects were unclear.After the selection, the DPP can keep political energy. Except for the successful Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Qimai, only Vice President Lai Qingde.Lai Qingde could even be said to be the main political beneficiary of the DPP's election defeat. The defeat storm helped him remove the potential obstacles of the pre -political road.
Lai Qingde participated in the Democratic Progressive Party's re -election this time, and only one of the party received a watch and register.He has no competitors in the party, not only the election of the party chairman, but also becoming the presidential candidate.Originally, the party chairman elected, he allowed the agent to come forward, but he finally ended in person to eliminate all election variables and strive to grasp the party machine in person.About four years ago, the presidential party primary election, he did not master the party machine, and encountered a strong backwind in the party, and eventually defeated.The current situation in the party is completely beneficial to him.
Local elections have not only re -created President and Party Chairman Tsai Ing -wen, but also affected by the British Department.Tsai Ing -wen wanted to play an important role within the party after the step -down office.But at present, the British prospects are not clear.The new trend of the largest faction in the party. After Lai Qingde became the chairman of the party, the forces will further develop.
This will also be the first time that the DPP has been the first party chairman for more than 30 years.In the future, the Democratic Progressive Party should embark on the "new trend" road, and the British and other difficulties will be difficult to compete with new trends.
Unlike the DPP, the situation in the KMT party is still unclear, and all parties are still watching.Due to the chaos in the party in 2019 (and to a certain extent, it leads to the defeat of the general election), those who intend to candidate this year are relatively cautious.At present, in addition to Zhao Shaokang, the candidate may be the current party chairman Zhu Lilun and the mayor of New Taipei Hou Youyi.
Zhu Lilun's 2016 Kuomintang ran for president, defeated Tsai Ing -wen, and lost more than 3.08 million votes.However, in November 2018, the Kuomintang won in local elections. In December, Zhu Lilun had stated that he would invest in the 2020 presidential election, showing a strong attempt.Last year, the Kuomintang won the local election under his leadership. As a party chairman, he still controlled the party machine. In this case, his will will not be weaker than four years ago.
However, the current public opinion of the party is not very friendly to Zhu Lilun's election, the main reason is that its polls have not performed well.For example, in accordance with the latest national polls of the Meilimao Electronics News, the Kuomintang Hou Youyi trust index ranks first, the DPP Lai Qingde ranked second, and Zhu Lilun ranked the last one.However, the significance of similar polls should not be overestimated, nor should it be inferred that Hou Youyi best represented the Kuomintang's victory on the election -Korean Yu four years ago can be described as a lesson.
In January 2019, Taipei City Councilor Wang Hongwei said earlier supporting South Korea ’s election president in the Kuomintang.Another member of the member Wang Xinyi also launched the event "Call of South Korea’ s full money in Taiwan, 2020 to stand up to the Korean Lianlian Department. "The reason why South Korea ’s Yu made an inappropriate decision for the president of the election that year was that these“ arch ”was not responsible.In the first half of 2019, the South Korean Liu had not yet retreated. At that time, the prestige of the Korean Yu theory obviously exceeded other candidates in the party (also exceeded the current Hou Youyi). Therefore, Wang Hongwei and Wang Xinyi were understandable.However, after South Korea ’s official on behalf of the Kuomintang's election, the wind direction gradually became unfavorable to him -except for the DPP successfully played the“ anti -China -Baozai ”card, he“ run ”as the mayor of Kaohsiung.Strong dissatisfaction.
If Hou Youyi was elected by the Kuomintang in 2024, it would be difficult for him to get rid of the "running" controversy.At present, Hou Youyi has led the polls, but it is difficult to say whether the political direction changes after the formal election.In 2016, Zhu Lilun, the mayor of New Taipei, "ran away" to run for the president and was defeated. In 2020, South Korea's Yu "ran away" for election, and once again defeated.If Hou Youyi runs in 2024, it means that the Kuomintang has launched the President of the President for three consecutive times in a row, and the final result is difficult to predict.
The author is a time -to -time judge, researcher of cross -strait relations, researchers
