Ye Dehao: The Russian and Ukraine War must be another in 2023 that the end of the ＂po

Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Ye Dehao

The development of any situation is also a coherent process. It is difficult for us to find an exact time as the end of the end of a certain era.When the end of an era is over, it depends to a large extent on people's subjective interpretation.Nevertheless, when people look back at history in the future and want to find the "post -Cold War era", at which time in the end of the Cold War, the Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN ordered the entry of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, it will be a great choice to believe that it will be a great choice.Essence

In the past few years, "Sino -US competition", "global multi -polarization", and "New Cold War" and other warm discussions, no one will be stupid enough to see the decline of the post -Cold War era in the U.S. independence.But so far, there is no incident that the end of the so -called "Pax Americana" than the development of the Russian and Ukraine War and its situation.

Another side of Western unity against Russia

From the unknown and unrequited or unjustles of the invasion of Iraq in 2003, to the populist and unilateralism after the 2017 Donald Trump, and even under the host of Joe Biden in 2021Afghanistan withdrew the troops and retreating, and there were the discussion at the time of the end of these incidents in the Cold War era and the end of the peace of America.Although the development of these incidents, if it is still active by the United States, it is limited geographical impact, they all point to the historical inevitability of the dying status of the United States.(History itself is not inevitable, but under some premise -for example, the trend of long -term growth of China's national strength -but it seems to have a inevitable direction.)

The outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine war shattered the mirror of the peace of America in one fell swoop.

The views of many Western observer are just the opposite.They believe that after Trump severely damaged cross -Atlantic relations, NATO was questioned "brain death", and Bayeng Afang's withdrawal of troops chaos, people thought that Western countries that would have the same differences in other interests against Ukraine would enter PutinBelow a quarter of cracking, we cannot set up a relatively united front, but what makes them "overjoyed" is that the war has entered the 11th month so far, but although there are many differences between the United States and Europe and the inside of Europe, they can still unite to unite to unite to unite to unite to unite to unite to unite to unite to unite to unite up.Support Ukraine, and even allowed Ukraine to take advantage of the battlefield many times.Therefore, in the eyes of many western (especially the United States), 2022 is a year when the West has stood up again.

Of course, this observation is not wrong.But from another perspective, after the NATO and the entire western world led by the United States, the Western world "re -stand up", Russia can still resist their unprecedented sanctions, and China, India, Southeast Asia, Africa, Africa, Africa,,, Africa, Africa,Latin American countries have not stood in the United States and the West.This phenomenon itself has proved that the power of the United States and the entire Western world is not enough to control the global situation.Even if the Russian and Ukraine War finally stopped in a more favorable way to the West, this fact could not be changed.

The disappearance of the United States and even Western hegemony was eventually unveiled by the Russian and Ukraine War, which was also surprising.

Who is the "pole" of the polar world?

The world's overall discussion about the "post -Cold War era" before the Russian and Ukraine War is often concentrated in the competition between China and the United States.Anyone who believes in the "strong" era that believes in the peace of America really exists, and will think that it will be the end of the Cold War era that will be announced.However, in the end, it was quite clear that the post -Cold War era was once the outdated threat of the "1980s" by former US President Barack Obama. The late Republican senator John McCain) Russia described as a "gas station dressed as a country".This may be an inevitable accident in history.

After the Cold War era, discussions such as "China and the United States G2" and "Multi -Extraction of the World".The protagonist, in addition to China and the United States, also Europe.According to the definition of Baidu Encyclopedia, the world's polarization is "the trend of the transformation of the central or national or more national or national group transformation from one or two super powers to two or more strengths."Obviously, if according to this definition, people's imagination of the so -called "power center" of the "post -Cold War" is probably the United States or the Soviet Union in the Cold War era ("one or two superpowers") as a blueprint, and willThe multi -world philosophy has become the United States or the Soviet Union played by the world's different countries or regions.

In this imagination, these "power centers" restrict each other in different regions and international affairs with their own absolute strength, and the interaction between them determines the direction of the world -only, only there is only the world -only, only there is only the world -onlyThey can grasp the initiative to change the international political bureau.

However, if we imagine the multi -pole world based on the Russian and Ukraine War and its subsequent development, the "pole" of the polar world is not necessarily the most absolutely strongest national or regional national organization, but insteadThe medium or even small countries that can use these powers to rush to each other -these countries may be an effective actor in the "polymer world".

Since the Russian and Ukraine War, the most proud of the international political stage is about Turkey.With the entrance of the Black Sea of Bosphorus, Turkey is destined to play an important role in the Russia and Ukraine War.

Out of its own interests, on the one hand, Turkey has banned the warships that do not use the Black Sea Port as the mother port to cross the Bosptruce Strait, weakened the Russian navy advantage in the Black Sea, and exported drones to Ukraine.The responsibilities of some NATO members have also cracked down on Russia's geopolitical strength. On the other hand, Turkey did not follow its NATO "ally" sanctions on Russia.The cheap Russian energy sources also serves as a channel for Russia's imports of foreign goods, and uses its rejection of its NATO members' status to Sweden and Finland to enter the alliance to continue to please the two countries and the United States.

At the same time, Turkey also cooperates with the United Nations, which has contributed to the Black Sea Food Export Agreement on both sides of Russia and Ughal, making the Russian and Ukraine War that will not severely exacerbate the global food crisis.

As the West and Russia in Ukraine areas are evenly matched, everyone has seeking Turkey, instead, it has made Turkey the most effective actor outside the war.

Russia's energy war against the West has also greatly strengthened its ability to prize in the United States by traditional American allies Saudi Arabia.Through the control of the decision to increase or decrease production in the Organization of the Organization of the Petroleum, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman forced to take office because of the persistence of human rightPlease "ask for oil.On the occasion of Muhammad suspected to reduce production and even invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit Shanda State's visit, Biden officials were helpless to him.

Compared with Turkey, Saudi Arabia ’s actions are more politically greater than reality, but they undoubtedly have the initiative in the US -Saudi relations.If it wasn't for the international pattern of how strong each other was at this moment, how could Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed play Bayon in applause?

In recent years, India has long been taking advantage of China and the United States to confront the opportunity to become a potential beneficiary of the Western enterprise transfer industry chain. Through security cooperation with Western countries, trying to strengthen their national defense strengthEssenceAfter the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, Sino -US confrontation is still India's chips, making it one of the largest buyers of cheap Russian oil, and at the same time, it almost avoids any countermeasures and criticism from the West.In this year's G20 joint statement, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also dominated its words about the Russian and Ukraine War, like leaders in the world of the world.

In addition to the above -mentioned medium -sized countries or people, some small nations are also multi -party in the Russia and Ukraine War.Finding its own geographical initiative, Azerbaijan is one of the obvious representatives.When Russia is unable to take into account Armenia, which is theoretically protected, Europe also needs to replace Russia with local gas from Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has repeatedly put pressure on the Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia for the dispute between the two sides this year.The brief battle between the two parties caused nearly 300 people to die. Now Azerbaijan is even more suspected to have blocked the 120,000 Armenians in the Russian peacekeeping forces for more than 20 days.Judging from the situation where Armenia hopes for help, it is not low to reach Azerbaijan's opportunity to fully recover its comprehensive recovery area.

Take a step back, the economic scale is probably equal to one Italy Russia. The reason why dare to launch a war against the Ukraine and persist to this day have the consideration of the two strong confrontation between China and the United States.Although Russia has its nuclear arsenal as the ultimate intimidation, if Russia cannot carry China in the economy, it cannot be carried by Putin to see the country that will maintain neutrality in the broader Chinese competition, a long -lasting Russian and Ukraine WarIt is an international impossible.

Looking forward to 2023, under the continued situation of the Russian and Ukraine War and the Sino -US confrontation, these countries that cannot be at the forefront of absolute strength, but can use the situation of a strong country to check and balance each other.Play more important geopolitical roles.

If the "pole" of the polar world is the protagonist of the multi -pole world, we really need to change the angle at a time and put our eyes on these countries that can be eased between the power.Perhaps them are the international political changes in the multi -pole world, rather than the strong powers who are targeted and constrained with each other.