Liu Debing: In 2023, does the Chinese property market meet at the bottom?

Source: China News Weekly

Author: Liu Debing

One leaf falls and knows autumn.

Recently, a netizen in Shenzhen posted on Weibo that because the price of houses he purchased in Shenzhen declined, the bank called him to pay 500,000 yuan (RMB, the same below, the same, S $ 97,300))The principal caused heated discussion.

House prices have to make up the principal, which is relatively rare in the past.So, how much house prices have fallen to, will it be required to make up the principal?What signals were passed behind this?

Falling house prices lead to shrinking assets

The above -mentioned Shenzhen blogger said that when the credit manager of the loan bank had just received a call from the loan bank, he said on the spot that the first time he heard this kind of thing was also confused.However, the credit manager told him that the house prices had risen in the past. No one noticed this. In fact, there was a clause in the bank loan contract. The principal needs to be submitted when the house price assessment declined.

This Weibo has quickly triggered a lot of discussions. Some people are worried and some people question.

Seeing this, the above -mentioned Shenzhen blogger posted a Weibo again, and when the comment area interacted, he once again said that there was something. The real estate price he purchased recently fell sharply.The assessment price has fallen, and he needs to make up the principal of 500,000 yuan.

Below these two Weibo, netizens followed the posts that many projects such as Shenzhen Nord's holiday garden, depth of the clouds, and maritime world are reduced prices.

The four first -tier cities represented by Shenzhen are the vane of the Chinese property market and one of the most strong real estate markets. However, in recent times, the Shenzhen property market has also been unable to carry it.

The National Bureau of Statistics recently announced that in November 2022, the sales price of new commercial housing in Shenzhen decreased by 0.5%month -on -month and stopped year -on -year.At the same time, the second -hand housing in Shenzhen declined more seriously, and second -hand houses decreased by 0.3%month -on -month, a year -on -year decrease of 3.6%.

In the history of the Shenzhen property market, this decline is rare, a decrease of 3.6%year -on -year, the largest decline in at least three years.

And, this is the overall decline in the Shenzhen property market. For specific real estate, the decline in some areas and some real estate is often larger.

Taking the previous Internet celebrity Pannodo Holiday Garden as an example, the price of second -hand housing in the community around 2020 was as high as 170,000 yuan/square meter.In the early 10,000 yuan, some houses decreased by nearly 30%-40%.

On a second -hand housing trading platform, a 49.13 -square -meter listing of Nord's Holiday Garden is directly displayed by "the owner's price reduction of 2 million" as a gimmick, and it shows sales.

Zhang Xiaogang, a consultant of the residence, told China News Weekly that the current listing price of this house is 5.2 million yuan. If it is more than a year ago, its price is 7 million yuan to 8 million yuan.The price reduction is 2 million yuan for sale.

At the end of 2022, the sales pressure of first -hand and second -hand houses in Shenzhen was increasing.According to statistics from Shenzhen Intermediary Agency, in November, Shenzhen was selling more than 41,000 second -hand housing, compared with 38,000 units in September, and the number of housing increased by 8%.

Statistics also show that in November 2022, Shenzhen's pre -sale volume exceeded 10,000 units, reaching 13,041 units, and a new pre -sale area of 1.171 million square meters, far exceeding the 59,000 square meters in October.Due to the great increase in supply, the Shenzhen New Housing Market ’s dewlocation cycle of the month rose to 13 months and entered a high point.

Director of the City and Real Estate Research Center of Renmin University of China, greatly told China News Weekly that the Shenzhen property market has recently declined. This is a normal market fluctuations. There is no real estate market where house prices can only rise and cannot fall.

A financial institution practitioner told China News Weekly that whether banks have the right to ask owners to make up for the "principal", the key depends on the specific terms of the contract."Due to the decline in house prices, the valuation of the house market as a mortgage has fallen. Once the valuation falls to a certain extent, triggers the contract terms, banks may require owners to make money to maintain bank asset security."

Thousands of policies will help the property market

In 2022, the Chinese property market experienced a wave of violent declines.

The National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to November 2022, the sales area of commercial housing was 1212.5 million square meters, a year -on -year decrease of 23.3%; the sales of commercial houses was 118.648 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.6%.

In 2020, the sales of commercial housing were 1736.1266 billion yuan, and the sales of commercial housing in 2021 were 18192.995 billion yuan.According to the current market transaction status, it is expected that the sales of commercial housing in 2022 will be significantly lower than 2021, and there is also a probability that it is far below 2020 at the beginning of the outbreak of the epidemic.

In addition, from January to November, the national real estate development investment was 1238.6 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 9.8%.The newly started housing area was 111.632 million square meters, a decrease of 38.9%. Among them, the newly started construction area of 81.734 million square meters, a decrease of 39.5%.

At the same time, in 2022, the real estate policy entered a comprehensive easing cycle.Huang Yu, the executive deputy dean of the China Finger Research Institute, told China News Weekly that under the guidance of the general tone of the "Housing and Housing", the regulatory authorities have issued many favorable policies, from supporting demand to support the corporate side, and the policy intensity continues to increase.

Huang Yu said that in 2022, there were thousands of policies in more than 300 provinces and cities (counties), reaching the peak in recent years, and further strengthened the policy.At the end of the year, a number of heavy policies landed, and "16 Finance" allowed housing companies to debt the debt exhibition and increased support for the financing of real estate enterprises.Fast, wide range, and large -scale characteristics.

Great said that overall, since this year, the property market has been favorable policies, but at present, the national property market has not yet recovered.

Judging from the trend at the end of the year, the market is still in the foundation.

In the adjustment of the property market in this round, real estate in the second, third and fourth -tier cities first experienced the baptism of the market, and the volume and price plummeted, but the mayor of Beishangguang, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen for a long time remained motionless.The monitoring of the middle finger research institute shows that in 2022, the scale of housing in various tier cities has declined year -on -year, of which first -tier cities have decreased the smallest, and second -tier cities have decreased the largest year -on -year. Chongqing and Wuhan and other large cities are particularly sluggish.The same is true of the land market. The performance of first -tier cities is relatively good, and the transaction scale and floor price of third- and fourth -tier cities have decreased.

However, in recent times, in addition to the large decline in housing prices in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Shanghai have also shown a trend of decline in house prices, and Beijing has also fallen for the first time.

In November 2022, the price of second -hand housing in Beijing decreased by 0.2%month -on -month, and in October 2022, the price of second -hand housing in Beijing rose 0.1%month -on -month.

On the whole, in November 2022, the prices of first -hand and second -hand houses in first -tier cities decreased by 0.2%and 0.4%, respectively, and the decrease was 0.1 percentage points expanded from the previous month.

In this regard, Xu Xiaole, the chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, told China News Weekly that although the bottom of the real estate regulation policy has long appeared, the bottom of the market has not appeared.

Zou Linhua, the leader of the Housing Big Data Project Team of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told China News Weekly that from the perspective of market operation, the demand for the property market, the income and confidence of buyers have not recovered, and the property market was naturally suppressed.

Everbright Bank Financial MarketZhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Ministry of News, told China News Weekly that this year's domestic economic impact has encountered internal and external factors, and macroeconomic fluctuations exceeded expectations. At the same time, the effect of domestic policy measures for stabilized property markets was lagging behind, and the property recovery of the property market required a process.

Is the property market at the bottom of 2023?

How long is this process?This is undoubtedly the focus of the current property market.

When being urged by the bank to make up the principal, the above -mentioned Shenzhen blogger posted an emotion: It is more uncomfortable than paying 500,000 yuan, because of the sharp decline in house prices, his house is more difficult to sell.

At present, buyers are not optimistic about the market outlook.A few days ago, the central bank announced in the fourth quarter of 2022 Urban Reserve Questionnaire Survey Reports show that in the next three months, 16%of residents intend to buy a house. This proportion is significantly lower than 17.1%in the third quarter, a new low in nearly six years.

For house prices next quarter, 14.0%of residents expect to "rise", lower than 14.8%of the investigation in the third quarter; 53.7%of residents expect "basically unchanged", lower than 56.6%of the third quarter; 18.5%of residents expect"Decrease", higher than 16.3%in the previous quarter, is expected to "decrease".

The report also shows that 61.8%of residents tend to "more savings", an increase of 3.7 percentage points over the previous quarter; 15.5%of residents tend to "more investment", a 3.7 percentage point decreased from the previous quarter.

For the market outlook, Zhou Maohua predicts that the property market is expected to gradually stabilize and recover next year, mainly due to the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention measures in China. In addition, the economic policy measures are effective, economic activities have resumed, employment improvement, market confidence recovery, and the comprehensive cost of residential house purchase will fall toHistorical low positions, etc., real estate is expected to stabilize and recover.

Great said that the policies that support just needed and real estate companies are already very loose. It is expected that the real estate market will bottom out next year to the bottom and achieve recoverable growth.

In addition, the judgment of many institutions is different about the time of stabilizing the property market.

Xu Xiaole believes that at present, the pressure on the market is alleviating, and the trend of the real estate market is further clear. The bottom of the market is relatively certain. In the spring of 2023, the market will usher in a steady recovery.

Huang Yu said that in the short term, the macroeconomic recovery is relatively slow. It takes time for buyers to revenue and restore the confidence of home property. It is expected that the sales market will stabilize the fastest or stabilized in the second quarter.In 2023, the national real estate market trend may be, "sales volume and price stabilize, new construction area adjustment trend is difficult to change, investment or continue to fall."

Zou Linhua believes that for the current property market, the key is to enhance the confidence of buyers.

A few days ago, the relevant parties of the central government explicitly stated that the real estate industry is positioned as "pillar industry".

Since December 2022, Foshan, Chongqing, Wuhan and other places have successively optimized real estate regulation and control policies on the supply side and demand side, and some restricted measures to suppress the release of housing consumption demand have been canceled.

Huang Yu said that the stability of real estate is essential for the stability of the macroeconomic in 2023. Under the positioning of the pillar industrial position, it is expected that the optimization and improvement of the policy of both ends of real estate supply and demand in the future will be more direct and rapid.Increase.

Xu Xiaole believes that the positioning of the pillar industry is the objective and qualitative that has been obtained after years of regulation. In terms of expectations and demand, the market outlook must focus on improving expectations and expanding effective needs.The restricted policy released, these consumption potentials need to be released.

He further stated that the cancellation of administrative intervention is to restore the market's regulatory mechanism, not to encourage further leveraged real estate.Under the policy framework of "housing and not stir -fry", the market will move closer to the center level, and it is difficult to rise to revenge.

It is great that the property market policy will be fine -tuned under the tone of "housing do not speculate" next year. The policy range and strength will be adjusted, but they will not and cannot change the positioning of "housing and not frying".