Yi Xianrong
The recent Central Economic Work Conference held by China is to set the economic work in 2023. The specific requirements given to real estate in the meeting are: to ensure the stable development of the real estate market, do a good jobThe work work meets the reasonable financing needs of the industry, promote the reorganization of the industry, effectively prevent and resolve the risk of high -quality heads, and improve the status of assets and liabilities.In other words, the core or essence of real estate work in 2023 is to "guarantee the property and prevent risk."Like the "steady growth" of the economy, it is also emphasizing a "stable" word.
In 2023, the "stability" of the Chinese real estate market is to survive the main real estate developer who builds housing.The strength is unprecedented.This not only shows the government's good intentions for the real estate market, but also means that the current real estate market is facing serious problems.If the main body of housing construction survives, it will not only directly impact the entire real estate industry, lead to collapse, and market confidence will be disappeared. It will also trigger a bank crisis and financial crisis, as well as the group social crisis of home buyers.
Some analysts believe that the government’s "three arrows" rescue the market is not only an important way to resolve various crises, but also the implementation of these policies to gradually resolve the market crisis and move towards the road of soft landing. The real estate industry continues to continueBecome a pillar industry for China's economic steady growth.In other words, the bubble of the Chinese real estate market will continue without shattering.Therefore, this Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that it was "guaranteeing the building and preventing risks", and emphasizing the soft landing of the real estate market.
However, as far as the current situation is concerned, the government hopes that the market is soft in 2023 too late.Because the market crisis is not just due to the debt crisis triggered by the three red lines launched by the regulatory authorities in August 2020.On the surface, after the implementation of the three red lines of financing, large and small developers have serious cash flow problems and caused developers' debt crisis.This is all of this, and it has caused the debt defaults of housing companies to break. Real estate projects or delayed buildings are delayed, or construction is built. The rotten tail buildings are all over the country.But in fact, the real estate debt crisis in 2022 is only a cause or fuse, and the housing market crashes or bubbles have already begun.For example, the counties around Langfang surrounding Beijing have begun to start in real estate bubbles before 2020.
Now the problem is that the market can soft landing, or is the bubble not shattered?In fact, there is a very serious concept misunderstanding here, that is, the bubbles of the real estate investment market are crushing like the collapse of the stock market, which has the instantaneous and consistency of the entire market.Housing is a kind of non -trading product. The price rise and fall is strict regional and specific. The burst of real estate bubbles is also regional.Therefore, there is no doubt that there is a huge bubble in the Chinese housing market. Although the degree of bubbles in various places and cities is different, whether from the relative price of housing prices (house price income ratio, housing price rent ratio) or the absolute price of real estate, it is all.in this way.Since there is a huge bubble in the market, it is only a matter of time as soon as possible, and there is no problem of shattering.In 2022, the debt crisis of real estate companies only accelerated the process of shattered, which made many places and urban hidden bubbles dismissal.
The most important sign of real estate bubbles is that house prices have continued to fall, and it has fallen to housing investors to be inaccurate and dare not want to enter the market.In this case, many cities had occurred before 2022.After the outbreak of the debt crisis of the developer in 2022, especially after the insurance handling incident, the market prices generally fell nationwide.As a result, the market has begun to enter extremely low stitches, and bubbles are also on the verge of crushing nationwide.According to the data of the China Index Research Institute surveyed 100 cities, the market price has fallen for five consecutive months; second -hand housing has fallen for seven consecutive months.House prices have always been steadily rising in the four major first -tier cities in China. Except for Beijing, house prices in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have fallen in October, especially Guangzhou and Shenzhen have fallen for three or four months.
House prices have fallen generally in the country, and housing sales must also decline sharply. In the same period, the housing sales area of 100 cities has fallen by nearly 40%.And this situation continues in December.In this case, I also hope that the market will be softened.
If the Chinese real estate market is unstable in 2023, the stable economic growth will definitely encounter huge obstacles.Some people calculate the decline in the real estate market based on the 2022 data, which can affect the growth of GDP (GDP) by nearly 2%.In 2022, the sales of commercial housing fell from 1821 trillion yuan (RMB of RMB, about S $ 3.5 trillion, the same below) to 14 trillion yuan in 2022, a decrease of more than 4 trillion yuan.To make the Chinese real estate market in 2023 re -become a engine of economic growth, relying on the preferential credit policy and tax policies purchased by the current housing, it has limited results (this is the case in 2022).The nature and expectations are fully reversed, and they return to the market dominated by speculation.To do this, the government must make house prices so as quickly as it is in 2009 and 2016.
If this situation appears, it will not only contrary to the market positioning of "living only", but also contrary to the goal of establishing a long -term mechanism for the establishment of the real estate market and letting the people live a happy and beautiful life.Because at the Central Economic Work Conference, "solving housing problems such as new citizens and young people, and exploring the construction of the long -term rental market."In other words, if the real estate market in 2023 is also positioned as the consumer market, the government has introduced the probability of pushing the house prices to high housing prices, not to mention that if the "insured property" has not been completed and the national housing prices are generally declined (this is this is it, it isThe basic trend in 2023), the probability of high housing prices is not high.
Therefore, for the Chinese real estate market in 2023, the policy goals are very clear, that is, "keeping traffic and preventing risks", thereby resolving various major risks, but the general decline in housing prices in the country will not change.Can be wishful thinking.
The author is a professor at Qingdao University, China
Dean of the School of Finance and Fortune Management
If the Chinese real estate market is unstable in 2023, the stable economic growth will definitely encounter huge obstacles.To make the housing market re -become a engine of economic stable growth, it is only stimulated by preferential credit policies and tax policies purchased by the current housing. The most important thing is to make the market's nature and expectations and reverse.
