Wang Shengchen: I am afraid that the ＂Ukrainianization＂ trap Taiwan has changed the

Source: Hong Kong Ming Pao

Author: Wang Shengchen

In response to the changes in the situation of the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan chose to restore a year of compulsory military service for war.A number of Taiwanese scholars interviewed that Beijing has never ruled out martial arts, and the war "may happen at any time", and Taiwan should make the worst plans, but the new system has been "too late" in time;The trap may be more intensified to heat up the situation.In addition, although the overall Taiwanese society agrees with the extension of military service, the enlistment group lacks consensus.Whether this restructuring will affect the future politics on the island is worthy of attention.

Taiwan Tsai Ing -wen proposed a plan for the recruited system on the 27th last month.As the "standing defensive" section in the structure of the military force and the protection of the protection of military -civilian facilities, the male service will be restored to one -year military service from the original four -month military training to better assist in the "main war" part and shoulder the safety tasks of land and air safety.Soldiers.In the next few months, the Blue and Green camp will review the new proposal in the Legislative Yuan. If it is expected to be implemented in 2024, it is suitable for men born after 2005.

In April, the voluntary service was accused of formalism extended social consensus polls: increasing the opposition rate of enlistable aging groups

This time, Taiwan society seems to have a consensus on extending military service issues, all of which have been accused of being referred to as formalism for voluntary training.Ding Shufan, an honorary professor at the School of International Affairs of the National University of Political Science, told Ming Dynasty that the four -month military service was "frank and not strict."Lin Yufang, the convener of the National Security Group of the Taiwan National Policy Research Foundation, also told Ming Pao that "soldiers who could not train well in four months."

Zhao Chunshan, an honorary professor at the China Institute of China Tamkang University, also pointed out that it is "absolutely necessary" to extend the military service. Because contemporary military development has turned into the leadership of scientific and technological warfare, Taiqing lacks the most basic weapon training.The annual military service is not enough, and it should be extended more. "Zhao analyzed that Taiwan's adjustment period is appropriate.At present, the atmosphere on both sides of the strait is not good, and Beijing has never ruled out the possibility of martial arts. In addition, the United States continues to manipulate the Taiwanese card. The war "may occur at any time".Wait.

Taiwan Defense Guideline Military Training Mode Three times the salary of salary and market

In order to cooperate with the extension of the military service, the Taiwan National Defense Department will also introduce international military training models such as the U.S. military, including strengthening real bomb shooting, new weapon training, practical training, simulation resistance training, etc.(NT $, the same below, S $ 284) Reluctant to over 26,000 yuan, to the benchmarking market artificially to increase attractiveness.

The polls of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation announced last month that although 73.2%of the overall interviewed people agreed to extend military service and 17.6%disagreement, only 35.6%agreed by the 20 to 24 years old and 37.2%did not agree.You Yinglong, chairman of the agency, pointed out to Ming that compared with another investigation of the agency last March, the interviewees aged 20 to 24 have risen slightly on extended military service, showing that the new system landed on the ground.Considering the characteristics of complexity.

Extending military service, Taiwan politics has been disturbed last year, but the official has not had a final decision before, and it was accused of involving political considerations in election.Zhao Chunshan analyzed that this time, the reelection system may be unfavorable to the DPP's next election. Because the youth generation will vent the dissatisfaction of the extended service through the votes to the green camp.However, Ding Shufan believes that the new system may make the Kuomintang's election even more passive. Because the green camp is good at restraining the blue camp on public opinion on the issue of defense, and the previous aggressive political response method in Beijing, it will always add booster to the low election green camps to promote boosting.Effect.

Multi -military system has been shortened after decades, and multiple elections are considered behind the adjustment

Reverse information, Taiwan's military service system has also experienced many adjustments for decades.From the implementation of the recruitment system in 1949 to 1990, the period was shortened.After entering the democratic transformation, the military service system was included in the topic of pan -election. In 2000, Chen Shui -bian began to plan the "recruitment system". After that, Ma Ying -jeou shortened the service period. By 2013, it was shortened to four months. There was a shadow of elections behind each round.

The outside world predicts that the issue of military service will continue to be promoted in blue -green politics.The Democratic Progressive Party had previously changed the bill from administrative skills to "review" to "review". The trial process forced the Kuomintang and other legislature forces to participate in the statement and "responsibility".Ding Shufan analyzed that the DPP's move was equivalent to the "abduction" of the Kuomintang's statement on this hot issue, making it dilemma in the political discourse: opposition, that is, to "sell the platform" from Beijing for mercy;Battlefield "" discourse.

Ding Shufan: The new system will take effect at the beginning of next year "too late"

Today, the implementation of the new system of military service is sometimes day.Ding believes that the new system will take effect at the beginning of the year, and the time has been "too late". Due to the changes in the military service system involved a large number of supporting measures, and the number of arbitrators has uncertainty in the short term, it is applicable to the new system of service.Afterwards, it is difficult to recruit a full number of people to join the army.

Zhao Chunshan: Considering the benefits of the Multi -Military sales of the "Ukrainization" of the United States

The Russian -U -U -U -U -U -U -U -wars war that broke out last year gave birth to the comparative argument of "today's Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan".Tsai Ing -wen also quoted the current situation of the Russian and Ukraine War, emphasizing that this new military service system was based on the concept of "preparation can avoid war and can fight to stop war", saying that "as long as Taiwan is strong, young people do not need to enter the battlefield."Lin Yufang believes that Ukraine has been supported in the war, thanks to the support and guidance of military power improvement in Ukraine from Russia in 2014 in 2014, and began to conduct weapons, training, intelligence and other military power improvement."The model can now build a reference for Taiwan's tactical construction, but at the basic defense operation level, Taiwan should still adhere to autonomy.

Zhao Chunshan pointed out that Taiwan should not completely substitute himself into Wu, and immersed it in this way to imagine war response.In addition to the geographical conditions, Taiwan should also see the similar disadvantages that they are facing themselves, including the United States without soldiers and Russia's first -troops. It should learn the latter's "lessons" and avoid war is the optimal solution.Zhao believes that the "Ukraineization" approach of the United States is mostly based on the interests of dumping weapons, but the Taiwan official cannot refuse this political pressure in order.The spiral upgrade from the wrestling power continuously intensifies the situation to heat up.

Zhao said that preparation for war is not the same as avoiding war. The so -called "can solve the war through war". From the direction of the war, only military power can effectively scare or even avoid war. There is no other law.In the face of the significant signs of martial arts, although Taiwan cannot be defense, it is necessary to effectively improve the arms, but it is even more important to return to the political negotiation table to eliminate the conflict between the non -drumming method and the Beijing.