Social editorial: The pressure behind the international crisis is still heavy behind i

Source: Hong Kong Sing Tao Daily Society

Entering 2023, the world hopes that the new year can get rid of last year's difficulties and see peace and prosperity.Last year, the war in Russia and Ukraine, coupled with high inflation and heavy pressure, the US Federal Reserve's sharp interest rate hikes, and strong US dollars, etc., all of which have undergone overweight pressure on global politics and sutra, and only slowly slowed down at the end of the year.However, the sharp interest rate hike has greatly increased the risk of global recession and the United States has focused on the risk of war in the war of war in the Taiwan Strait, which has increased heavy concern for this year's global political and economic.

The global crisis of political and economic crisis in the world has become deeply in the war.NATO step by step and eastward expansion, which seriously threatened Russia's national security and survival. Russia sent troops to Ukraine at the beginning of last year, trying to turn Ukraine into a buffer area for Russia and Europe.The United States led NATO military assistance to the Ukraine and imposed heavy sanctions on Russia, which led to a failure of the Russian war. The war was delayed for more than 10 months.The inflation rate hit a new high of 30 or forty years.

In order to make up for the errors of inflation in the previous year, the US Federal Reserve continuously raised interest rates to curb inflation. In just 10 months, the interest rate hike was four -five, and the US dollar exchange rate index appeared rare and super strong.Success has caused currencies in other countries, which almost detonates the financial crisis of many countries.The sharp interest rate hike in the United States has also led to a large evaporation of the global stock market.

The global economic recession and cutting consumption capacity

It was close to the end of the year last year, and the relevant political and economic crisis only saw the sign of slowing down.Although the war of Russia and Ukraine is still stuck, the war has reduced the fire. Russian President Putin showed peace talks. The United States also complied with the requirements of European allies to promote Ukraine to talk about peace.

Although the global inflation rate is still high, the energy and grain prices that have been pushing inflation have fallen. International oil prices have fallen by one -third from the peak of June last year, only about 10 % higher than the beginning of last year.At the end of last year, food prices have also fallen until the beginning of the year, and the inflation rate recorded in the past two months has shown signs of falling.After the high inflation showed the decline, the storage bureau's interest rate hikes also decreased. The outside world expects that the US interest rate hike cycle is over in the first quarter of this year. After the US dollar exchange rate index was topped at the end of September last year, it has fallen by 10 %.There is no need to worry about defending the exchange rate this year, and the pace of interest rate hikes can also slow down according to national conditions.

Last year, Russia and Ukraine's fire, high inflation, and interest rate hikes that have troubled the world have slowed down. Even the crown disease that has troubled Global for three years was nearly ended. However, although the deep crisis was relieved, the sequelae cannot be underestimated.

The global economy will face a serious threat of recession. The International Monetary Fund is estimated that this year's global economic growth rate is only 2.7%, and it will even reduce to less than 2%.It is expected that the global economic growth rate this year is only 0.5%. The decline threat is the largest in global stagnation in the 1970s, and consumer confidence has declined more seriously.This is because the United States took the lead in raising interest rates last year, and its crackdown on this year's global economy may be more than last year. High interest rates will lead to slow investment, asset prices may continue to fall, high interest rates and high inflation, and also seriously weaken people's consumption capabilities.

A new crisis of the US Strait Strait Instead of Manufacturing

In addition, can the Russian and Ukraine war be peaceful, or the outbreak of more destructive nuclear weapons, and watch the game of the United States and Russia.The old crisis was not solved, and the United States was still creating a new crisis, and the issue of the Taiwan Strait continued to fire.The Biden government only sold martial arts in Taiwan the year before, but increased to seven times last year. At the end of last year, it was announced that the generals would aid Taiwan for US $ 10 billion (S $ 13.4 billion) in the next five years.By one year, it was required to increase the military reserve swords in South Korea and Japan. It also led the Western military organization in Europe to Asia. The leaders of Japan, South Korea, and Australia were invited to attend the NATO summit. NATO issued a statement highly followed the Taiwan Strait.

Regardless of whether the United States wants to copy the Russian war against Russia to defeat Russia and provoke the mainland forces to attack Taiwan, its small movements are exacerbating the Taiwan Strait's tension.If the war broke out in the Taiwan Strait, the global damage was greater than the Russian and Ukraine war.

Global political and economic experience last year experienced stormy waves. Although the surface crisis was slightly eased, the sequelae of the crisis were still fermenting, impacting the economy this year.If the world wants to be peaceful and prosperous, it must resolve the threat of recession, and remember the lessons of the Russian and Ukraine war last year.