Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Liu Yanting
2022 is the 50th anniversary of the China -Japan Reunion, but the relationship between the two countries this year is not smooth.
After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War on February 24, Japanese politics floated the restlessness of "re -armedization".It was proposed on March 13 that the Japanese Constitution should be amended and the Japanese Self -Defense Force was officially included in Article 9 of the Constitution, which caused the sides of the surrounding state, including China.
On July 8th, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated and died, and Kishida Wenxiong publicly stated that he would inherit Abe's legacy and commit to completing the constitutional amendment.On July 10th, the results of the Japanese Senate elections were released. The constitutional amendments represented by the Liberal Democratic Party, the Gongming Party, the Japanese Restoration Association, and the National Democratic Party reached two -thirds of the seats required for constitutional amendments to the constitutional amendment.
On August 5th, Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, who was about to step down, went to Japan after the visit of Taiwan. Kishida Wenxiong said when the two met, ""Close cooperation" can be described as echoing Abe's continuous expression of "There is something in Taiwan in Japan, that is, there is something wrong with Japan and the United States."
On October 3rd, Kishida delivered a governance speech at the 210th temporary parliament in Japan, stating that it will be thoroughly strengthened in China and North Korea to thoroughly strengthen Japanese defense within five years.) "The matter, discussed, and three documents related to security related to security.
On November 17, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Bangkok, Thailand to prepare to attend the 29th leader's informal meeting of the Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation.When you meet, it is of great significance, but it is still difficult to settle down Sino -Japanese relations.
On December 16, through the Japanese government, through the new version of the national security strategy, national defense strategy, and defense forces (referred to as security for security), it positioned China as "the largest strategic challenge so far", and proposed that Japan will commit to being committed to Japan.With the ability to attack enemy and increase military spending in the next five years.This action means that Japan gradually deviates from the principle of "special defense defense" and has caused the peace concept of the post -war constitution to be seriously dusty.
It can be seen from the Sino -Japanese friction in 2022, and Japan's foreign policy is undergoing transformation: its security strategy is gradually changing into an attack, and the trend of interference in the Taiwan Strait in the United States and Japan is also taking shape.In this process, the mutual trust foundation of Sino -Japanese relations is constantly being hollowed out.
Internal affairs exacerbate strategic transformation
On the one hand, Japan's strategic transformation accelerated in 2022 and was trapped by the domestic government.
First of all, the former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated, which had a profound impact on the Liberal Democratic Party's power pattern and faction displacement, and provided political energy to the constitutional amendment to a certain extent.On July 9 the next day, Abe's death, the Japanese Senate held an election. The Liberal Democratic Party's support rose four percentage points from the past, and the constitutional amendment forces also exceeded two -thirds of the seats. The people's "sympathy tickets" should have a certain effect.Kishida Wenxiong also stated at the reporter's meeting that the Liberal Democratic Party would win in the Senate election and would be able to promote the policy of internal and external policies. "Constitutional amendments include these policies."
The second is the support of the Kishida government in November with the downturn, which led to Kishida Wenxiong to show a strong posture in security policies and constitutional amendments to consolidate the support of the party.After Abe's assassination of the public opinion storm of "unified teaching infiltration of the Liberal Democratic Party", Kishida Wenxiong announced in August that the cabinet was reorganized, but he was kicked in October.It can only be announced on October 24 to impact Kishida's political prestige; then the Minister of Justice Ye Likanghong, Minister of General Affairs, Temple of the General Affairs, and Minister of Fuxing Qiu Yexian also resigned for scandals.Members, the Prime Minister himself is obviously impossible.
According to the results of a number of polls announced by Japanese media, the support rate of Kishida Cabinet has continued to decline since November. Taking the polls of the Japanese NHK TV station as an example, its support rate is only 33%.It is also a hot topic in Twitter, Japan, and this is the sixth time the entry since June 23 this year; the results of the polls made by Japan's daily news on November 19th and 20th, which shows.43%of the people "want Kishida to resign as soon as possible"; many Japanese media are predicted that several ministers Kono Kono Kono and the Democratic Party's chairman Maomin Chong are all strong competitors of Kishida.
Third, the short -term difficulty of Japan's economic dilemma has led Kishida to choose an article in constitutional amendments and security fields, hoping to save unified local elections in spring next year.In addition to the economic dilemma of Japan, in addition to weakness after the epidemic, it cannot be recovered instantly, and external incidents have also played a certain role: the Russian and Ukraine War, which fell in February, detonated the global energy crisis, and the price of oil prices soared all the way.From month, interest rate hikes have led to the expansion of Japan and the United States and the sharp depreciation of the yen.
Today's Kishida government has a dilemma.If you abandon quantitative easing and negative interest rates, it may lead to rising government debt risks, the plunge in the bond market price, and the stock market turbulence.However, the depreciation of the yen caused input inflation and dragging down the economic recovery. The "new capitalist" economic policy released by the Kishida government in May can only delay the implementation.To some extent, the epidemic has exacerbated the gap between the rich and the poor in the Abe period. Although "new capitalism" is intended to alleviate the above -mentioned sinking, under the weak economic recovery, it can only bind hands and feet.After all, the primary prerequisite for fair distribution is to have economic growth first.
In summary, Abe's assassination creates an atmosphere for Kishida to promote constitutional amendments. The downturn support and economic dilemma make Kishida more motivated to "break the stand" in the security field to ensure that the throne of power is stable.
China becomes targeting goals
On the other hand, the international situation has also promoted Japan's strategic transformation, allowing it to gradually regard China as a reason for targets and "unlocking seals".
First of all, the expectations of public opinion induced by the Russian and Ukraine War.With the spread of Ukraine's war, the security and autonomous awareness of Japanese society has risen. The government has directly connected Russia and Ukraine's narrative with the Taiwan Strait, strengthening its hostility to China.Taking the new version of the diplomatic blue book released by Japan in April, it said that "emerging countries and developing countries represented by China have used globalization to accumulate strength" and "the world officially entered the era of Sino -US competition, and international order faces severe challenges."
The "Three Files of Security" by modified by the end of 2022 is even more obvious.For example, in the National Security Protection Strategy, it has emphasized that in recent years, "Japan is in the most severe and complicated security environment after the war, and the pressure of changing the status quo by unilaterally changing the status quo through force", "as a major member of the international community, Japan will be with allies and like -mindedness.State cooperation to realize the new balance of international relations, especially the Pacific region of India "," the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait is an indispensable element "; the rest of the documents also mentioned that China and Russia conducted joint exercises around Japan.Strong concerns in security. "
Second, the strengthening of the Japanese and American Alliance is also the key.From the perspective of historical perspective, the "US -Japan security system", which was left to the present during the resumption of diplomatic relations between China and Japan in 1972, originally provided a strategic gap for Japan to interfere with the Taiwan Strait.Kou Mei Yuan Zhong "returned to the ambition of the big country's stage.According to Japanese media reports, Kishida Wenxiong is expected to visit the United States in January 2023. At that time, it will agree with Joe Biden to modify the pointer of Japan -US defense cooperation to change Japan's long -term "shield" and the United States as "spear".Lifting Japan's attack ability as a "spear".
Ran Ran's mind, although Japan has frequently mentioned the "Taiwan Strait", and also to interfere with the security system to interfere with the Taiwan Strait with the United States, it does not intend to interfere with the conflict of the Taiwan Strait.The theory of threats connects the "Taiwan Strait" with "Japan", increasing the relevant legitimacy of the expansion, and restraining the system of the constitution after the war.
Taking the "Security Three Documents" as an example, the new version of the National Security Protection Strategy declared that Japan should have a "counterattack ability", that is, "the ability to attack the enemy base", so it will be purchased and equipped in the next five years.Ax "cruise missiles and domestic improved" 12 -type "shore ship missiles with a range of 1,000 kilometers or more will also develop high -speed glide and hypersonic missiles, which means that the" special defense defense "principle will be severely hollowed out.
In addition, the "Security Three" will set a total of about 43 trillion yen (440 billion yuan) from 2023 to 2027, which is the current mid -term defense forces (2019 to 2023) about 270,000The total amount of 100 million yen is nearly 1.6 times, and it is stipulated that the target of 2%of the domestic GDP (GDP) of the GDP (GDP) should be achieved in 2027. In view of the previous standards that Japan has always followed this proportion of not exceeding 1%, public opinion is even more commonIt is undoubtedly a major subversion to whether Japan is pursuing peacetime observation indicators.
In short, the Taiwan Strait and the threat of China are the basis for promoting the expansion of the army at the moment; although Japan may have no intention of "cooperating against Taiwan", Sino -Japanese relations will definitely be tortured.On the one hand, Japan ’s substantial expansion of the army and the military deployment of the southwest islands will inevitably cause regional tensions. Second, Japan has repeatedly implied that“ there is something in Japan in the Taiwan Strait ”, which has actually violated the basic principles of the four political documents in China and Japan.
Kishida will visit the United States in January and modify the pointer of Japan -US defense cooperation. Japan's strategic transformation is difficult to make a short period of time, and Sino -Japanese relations in 2023 are also afraid of constant friction.
