Ding Ke

As part of the strategy of curbing China technology, in March 2022, the US government proposed the Chip4 plan to propose to set up a "chip Quartet Alliance" composed of the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan in order to exclude mainland China to the world.Beyond the tip semiconductor supply chain.

Japan has irreplaceable competitive advantages in the advanced process of semiconductor manufacturing in the field of semiconductor equipment and materials, South Korea and Taiwan.If Japan and South Korea, and the Netherlands with ASML, which has an optical carved machine manufacturer, cooperate with the United States to expand the export control objects to all products, equipment, materials, technologies, and personnel related to the advanced process.The chance of success in the field of cutting -edge semiconductors is very slim.

But at the same time, as a large -scale economy, China's economy has strong toughness.The author believes that China may still promote the continuous development of the semiconductor industry in the following three aspects.

First of all, there is still huge development space in the process of semiconductor maturity.New energy vehicles, the Internet of Things, 5G and other digital economy pillar industries are mainly concentrated in mature processes.According to the China Electronics Daily, the market capacity of the mature semiconductor process in the next three years may be as high as 75%to 80%.Affected by the US sanctions, SMIC, China's largest semiconductor foundry enterprise, has adjusted its business focus into a mature process.According to the estimation of Nikkei News, the production capacity of SMIC's 28 nanomes or above may increase by 30%to 40%each year.

The significance of the

The development of a mature process is that it can help the weak foundation of the Chinese semiconductor industry to accumulate capabilities, cultivate talents, and create an innovative community with local enterprises as the main body.The semiconductor industry has a strong effect.In fact, with the rise of Chinese semiconductor manufacturers, local suppliers including EDA software, semiconductor materials, equipment, etc. continue to grow.At the international portrait machine exhibition held by Yokohama, the author once came into contact with a Chinese supplier that specializes in production industrial optical lenses.With the advantages of the semiconductor industry, the company has grown rapidly from a small enterprise in the mobile phone industry chain to a invisible champion in the Chinese market within one or two years.

Secondly, the transfer of technological paradigm in the semiconductor industry will bring new opportunities to Chinese companies.In the past 10 years, one of the main reasons for China's high -tech industry has made the opportunity window for the fourth industrial revolution. Through the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, 5G and other emerging tracks, it has successfully achieved curve overtaking.The semiconductor industry is also facing similar situations.At present, the Law of Moore has developed to the limit. For new materials such as the oxidation of the Moore era, new integrated technologies such as Chiclet, and new open source architectures such as RISC-V are constantly emerging.

The above new technologies, China and Chip4 are basically on the same starting line.Whether the new technology can be successfully used in commercial purposes depends not only on the level of technical level, but also whether the relevant technical routes can be widely used by the industry.Because of the huge market size, China has the ability to promote competition between multiple technical routes at the same time, and with the advantages of the domestic market, it has established the final technical route as an international standard.These all make Chinese companies on the new track may quickly reach the frontier of the industry.

Third, under the new type of national system, China through the government -led computing power network may get out of a development path that rely less on advanced chips and semiconductor equipment.Because of the corruption scandal of the large fund, the semiconductor industry is regarded as a symbol of the failure of the new national system, but it is far from being so simple.

Taking the "East Digital West Calculation" project as an example, China's computing power demand is currently mainly concentrated in the eastern region, while the western region is rich in renewable energy, and the development of data centers is huge.The "East Digital West Calculation" intends to guide the demand for the eastern computing power to the west by building a new computing power network system with data centers, cloud computing, and big data integration to optimize the layout of the data center construction.According to the analysis of the WeChat public account Bai Rhino communication, the Chinese government will centralize the advancement of advanced computing power, which can "save the computing power investment of various enterprises and industries, and then reduce the degree of dependence of society in advanced semiconductors and related equipment, enhance the entire country's entire countryCalculate industrial security capabilities. "

As mentioned above, Chip4 will have a huge impact on the plan to develop cutting -edge semiconductors in China, but China is still likely to use mature processes, emerging technologies, and national -led computing power networks to establish its own semiconductor industry chain and continue to continuePromote the digital transformation of the entire society.It must also be seen that semiconductors are the highest level of international division of labor.The higher the degree of independent innovation of Chinese semiconductors, the more you need to strengthen cooperation with the international community.

The United States has always emphasized that it is necessary to maintain the "rules -based international order". As the main member of Chip4, Japan is the foundation of the country.In view of this, China should follow and rationally use the rules of free trade. In addition to export control scope, it should continue to promote technical cooperation with all parties including Chip4 to accumulate for the further development of the semiconductor industry.

The author is the director of the Japan Institute of Economics of Japan