Yang Jun
In 2022, Russian President Putin did not hold an annual press conference, and the Kremlin palace did not hold a New Year enrollment.The move that Putin has never had before has never been in the president, and it conveys how despair, helplessness, depression and anxiety in his heart!How annoyed it is!How much he wanted to return to February 24.Sincerely hates all the time, the more cruel reality in front of him is that the war will basically end in the spring of 2023. No matter how unwilling he is and reluctant to accept it.Because of his position, we may wish to analyze several major opportunities and challenges that the international community needs to face after the war.
First of all, the international community should be actively prepared for the upcoming Putin era as soon as possible to avoid the problem of vacuum vacuum in Russia after Putin. At the same timeEnter while it is false.Because this is not only about the trend of Russia's development in the future, but also how Russia reconciles with Ukraine and the world after the war.If it is not handled properly, it will not only bring heavy resistance to post -war peace and rebuilding, but it is also likely that Russia and Ukraine and even more countries will be dragged into the new war or local conflict in the future.This is a fatal mistake that the West often committed in the transformation of the Islamic world, that is, replaced with a more popular ethnicist or religious enthusiasm for international community and contempt for international order.
Secondly, after the war of Russia and Ukraine, there will be a dilemma: on the one hand, how Ukraine and the international community should treat this Russia who almost defeated the world after the defeat of the world, and will not be the next time for resentment to revenge.The scaled war was buried?On the other hand, for Ukraine, which has experienced major personnel casualties and exhausted, where will its safety guarantee be placed?When he looked forward to the future, he was deeply relieved to be deeply supported by the world's hobbies and freedoms in war.This is just like the France, which won after Churchill's victory after the war. If the safety is not guaranteed for a long time, everything you get seems to be meaningless.Therefore, Ukraine will inevitably use all methods at all costs, even the strictest, even the most cruel way to obtain security guarantee.
As Puresak said: "For the sake of war as a means, even if it violates his original intention, it is not intentional, but for the most harsh and most cruel reality." This dilemma is dilemma.If the problem is not handled well, greater trouble and even war will erupt in the near future.This is undoubtedly the major post -war challenge that the West will face, that is, how to balance these dilemmas.This not only tests human rationality and wisdom, but also tests the conscience and responsibility of mankind.
Especially in Europe and the United States, there are national interests of various countries (even within Europe, the British, German, and French countries are rarely synchronized). Although it is currently the difficulty of relief of the Ukraine, once the pressure of the war slows down, it was originally that the pressure of the war was slow.The entanglement and even dislocation of their respective interests will definitely add complicated difficulties.In fact, if you look back at the past, you will find that almost all tragedies or disasters are inseparable from the selfishness, short -sightedness and self -righteous shadow in human nature.In other words, most of the tragedy of human beings uses stupidity as the ingredients and greedy selfish desire as a condiment.
However, after all, the Russian and Ukraine War brought a rare and huge contribution to the international community, that is, the post -war international order will inevitably be further strengthened around the United Nations Charter and the international law system, and no one dares to blatantly challenge this order.This is probably the only positive contribution that the Russian battle brought to us this time.When we witnessed the so -called "special military operations" launched by the world to Putin so much, we should understand the truth when we are so disgusted: war is so outdated!So unpopular!Such "slow god abuse the people" will inevitably "Huang Tianfu" (Shang Shu · Shang Shu · Xian has a virtue)!Just as Indian Prime Minister Modi criticized Putin in person in the face of the SCO: "This is the era of global trading, not the war era." Last week, Modi also published signature articles in the Russian official media, and once again reiterated that scientific and technological progress enabled countries to make countries can make countries canThrough trade, the resources that need to be developed will not be plundered by war.
According to Bloomberg, in view of Putin's recent threat to the use of nuclear weapons in "Special Military Operations", Modi decided not to hold him with him in 2022.This is the first time that it has been canceled for no reason since 2000 (previously once canceled once in 2020).An anonymous senior official in the Indian government revealed that although India's relationship with Russia is still strong, the relationship between the two countries "promoted" at this time, "no good" for Modi, India can no longer be tied to Russia too deeply.At this time, it can be seen not only to what extent Putin has been isolated, and it has become the "orphan" of the international community.Just as people of insight pointed out that "Special Military Operations" was not simply military operations from the beginning, but it is likely to evolve into a reconfistion of a wide range of affected.The person dragged down the quagmire.
Finally, a problem that needs to face and properly solve in front of the international community is post -war reconstruction.In this regard, the international community must work together and abandon the suspicion of building Ukraine.As the UN Secretary -General Gutres calls for a large -scale destruction, "we must invest in Ukraine's reconstruction work."The funding gap required for the construction of Ukraine infrastructure alone has reached trillions of dollars, not to mention that the war is still crazy.So this is unable to bear independence.The Leaders of the Seven Kingdoms Summit had held a meeting on the 12th last month to study the reconstruction of Ukraine. The current German Chancellor of the Rotent Chairman State claimed that "the reconstruction of Ukraine will be a human task comparable to the Marshall plan."It promises to provide Kiev's macro fiscal assistance to Kiev in 2023.More and more "friendly" countries such as Gulf countries, India, and Cambodia have also joined the support campaign.The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Economic Affairs have recently mobilized about 700 French companies to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine.French President Macron also said that mobilizing enterprises to participate in Ukraine reconstruction is very important. He called on companies to propose a solution to help Ukraine's economic recovery instead of waiting for the end of the war.
All this means that the post -war reconstruction has officially on the agenda.Therefore, the states of China and Asia must formulate their respective solutions to participate in Ukraine's reconstruction as soon as possible, and actively coordinate with the international community to avoid their respective politics, so as to obtain the greatest extent as much as possible.This is an excellent opportunity that the world infrastructure country is also the Belt and Road Initiative, and it should not be missed.
As the Ukrainian President Zelezki said in a video speech: "We have many possibilities and opportunities, you can't find it elsewhere in the world." Especially in terms of energy and infrastructure construction, China has other other other China.There is no advantage in developed countries.So the earlier the intervention, the more the right to speak, not to mention that this may be the last window period for China to intervene.
The author is an associate professor of China University of Political Science and Law
Kennedy College of Harvard University
Researcher of Ash Democratic Governance and Innovation Center
Most of the tragedies of human beings are ingredients and greedy selfish desires as condiments. They are waiting for a chef who is good at joy and self -use, and has a lot of talents.
