Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Liu Yanting
On December 21, Ukraine President Zelei Sky visited the United States. The United States also announced on the same day that he would aid U -Patriot missile missiles on the same day, and it was obvious that the war would continue.
Looking back at the development of the Russian and Ukraine War, since Russia launched special military operations on February 24, the war has lasted for more than 10 months.At first, the Russian army surrounded Kiev, hoping to force Ukraine to surrender directly and agree to the various "Finnish" conditions that Russia opened, including the amendment to ensure that it does not join NATO, abandon holding offensive weapons, and ban anti -Russian political parties.However, from the results, the military's efforts were defeated, and Ukraine did not give up resistance. The Russian army had to move into Donbas in April to announce the start of the second stage of operation.
Subsequently experienced blood bathing, the Russian army once occupied more than 20%of Ukraine's territory, but accompanied by Ukraine's counterattack with European and American assistance, after September, he recaptured the actual control of Halkov and Hermuson areas.The scope has been reduced.At the same time, Russia held a referendum in Russia from September 23rd to 27th from September 23rd to 27th.Including "Russia, it is intended to consolidate the consequences.
Ukraine is under the military and economic aids of Europe and the United States to recapture the war consumption of the occupied territory, but the cost of the casualties is heavy, and the equipment and ammunition inventory are increasingly tight;The Ukraine started a war -centered consumption of fire, and has begun to use Iranian military drones, and at the same time ordered domestic military factories to accelerate the work.
On December 21st, when Zeleianzki visited the United States, Russian President Putin held a expansion meeting of the Ministry of Defense, saying that there was no funding restriction in the war, and the army would have a request.The Russian Defense Minister Shoigu also introduced a series of military reform plans, showing Russia's preparations for consuming warfare.Although Putin stated that Russia is ready to negotiate at any time and hopes to end the war as soon as possible, its so -called "negotiations" are obviously not the situation as the "Russian army withdrew from Ukraine and talk about", so the fire will continue in the short term.
The details of the military reform introduced by Shaygu on December 21 can observe several points, which reflects Russia's strategic thinking.
First, increase the amount of troops to meet the larger frontline needs.According to Shaoyu, Putin signed a presidential order as early as August, requesting that from January 1, 2023, the total number of Russian armed forces was increased to more than 2 million, of which the number of military personnel should reach 1.15 million, compared with todayThe amount of staff is 137,000.At the meeting on the 21st, Shaygu also proposed a series of details of the increase in the amount of the army, including increasing the number of military personnel to 1.5 million, and maintaining the existing recruitment and contract system. However695,000, equivalent to twice the amount of the active contract soldiers.
In addition, the Russian Ministry of Defense also suggested to adjust the recruitment and recruitment regulations.signing the contract.It can be seen that the new plan pays special attention to the number of people in the Russian army, and hopes to achieve the expansion plan by increasing the number and proportion of the contracting soldiers.Russia obviously preset the Russian and Ukraine War for a period of time. It is hoped that the number of frontline combatants will be sufficient, but they are unwilling to allow the recruitment system to bear all pressure, so as not to detonate large -scale civil grievances and endanger Russia's political security situation.
Second, strengthen the capacity of military industry and logistics.Sho Gulu said that the Russian Ministry of Defense will pay attention to military necessities and its industrial development, supervise the implementation progress of national procurement, and require relevant units to adjust the working day, such as some of the most urgent need for products that must be delivered by 2023.In addition, the Russian Ministry of Defense will continue to rebuild its maintenance institutions, speed up the maintenance of military reserve, and build three new repair plants in 2023.
This measure is still a direct response to foresee the long -term Russian -Ukraine war war.In addition, in addition to the Ukrainian battlefield, the Russian army must maintain a certain degree of military existence in Syria, so as not to enter Turkey, so that Russia has lost its operational skills for many years.Under the huge demand, improving Russia's military production capacity will meet the equipment demand for troops to expand; the preparation and maintenance plants can transfer some orders to slow down the work pressure of the non -National Ministry of Defense's maintenance units.
Third, we should adjust the new situation of the "four places into Russia" in Finland and Sweden to join NATO and Ukraine to adjust the structure of the troops.According to Shaoyu, Russia will be rebuilt in the Moscow Military Region and Leninram Military Region, which merged into the Western Military Region in 2010, and formed a new group army.For example, Kajuelia, near Finland, will set up the Army Army, and Hulson and Zapoli regions of Ukraine will establish two synthetic divisions.
In the military region in all strategic directions, the Russian side will form five artillery divisions and great power artillery brigades. Some of the existing troops will also expand the scale, such as the Western Military Region, the Central Military Region, the Eastern Military Region and the Northern Fleet 7The Morfu Brigade will be expanded into a division, and the Navy's Marine Brigade will be expanded into 5 divisions.In addition, there will be new formations, including 3 aviation division headquarters, 8 bomber groups and 1 fighter regiment.In the future, each army aviation hybrid aircraft division and brigade will be equipped with the power of air and heaven.The above measures are obviously planned for new challenges such as NATO's re -expansion and consolidation of Russian occupation, and it is necessary to cooperate with reforms such as increasing the reform of the troops and improving the production and maintenance capabilities of military reserve.
The aforementioned military reform plan shows Russia's determination to promote warfare.Comparing the conditions and thinking of the Russia and Ukraine Army, the confidence of the two sides has different battles.
On the Russian side, it is forced to carry out national mobilization like Ukraine. Therefore, the number of frontline fighters in the Russian army is relatively tight;A large number of artillery and equipment reserves can be used to start a war -centered war.
Observe the current battle situation that it can be found that because the front wings of the forward troops are unattended, the Russian army cannot play offensive and promote sharply;With a large number of ordinary drones and four -rotor drones cooperated, mobilizing large -scale artillery fire to annihilate it. The bloody battle of Bachmut is the manifestation of this thinking.
By consuming Ukraine's living forces, Russia's goal is to continue to increase the Ukraine's casualties until it cannot fight and give up resistance. At the same time, the Russian army is avoiding heavy injuries under the attack of blindly.Unstable.Under this thinking, Russia has to occasionally sacrifice political interests and abandon the territory of the dead, and take the preservation of combat effectiveness as the highest goal.
The war -consuming war on Ukraine depends on Western arms assistance, as well as living forces that have gathered in the country.Ukraine's military industrial production capacity is not as good as Russia. The war in several months has allowed its ammunition inventory to eat, and Kiev can only rely on Western military aid.In order to ensure the willingness of Western assistance, the Ukraine needs to prove that it is "worthy of support" with the results, otherwise Europe and the United States may reduce the "invalid investment" in Ukraine due to heavy economic problems.It will collapse one after another.Therefore, there is no choice but to know that the Russian army can only launch the offensive.
Of course, Ukraine's strategy is not without harvest. It mobilizes a large number of manpower to form a new brigade to attack the fast attack, break through the line of defense, and hand over the territory to the recruits to defend.This strategy has achieved good effects in Russian soldiers such as Halkov and weak defense areas; but in the full area of Russian troops such as Hermuson, it has not made a poor progress and caused a large number of personnel casualties. Until the Russian army due to logistics problems,With the initiative to retreat, Ukraine returned smoothly.
In addition, this strategy still has to face fatal problems, That is, Ukraine's living forces cannot regenerate quickly.During the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, there were 43 million citizens in Ukraine, of which 5 million were called recruited men.However, according to the United Nations statistics, there were 14.3 million Ukrainians who fled their homes under the war, and there were 9 million people in Crimea or other Russian occupation areas.Therefore, today's Ukrainian population has decreased to approximately 20 million to 27 million. According to this ratio, the country's callable men can no longer be able to recruit less than 3 million.Nowadays, about 1 million people in Ukraine should enter the army. Although there are still millions of people who can be mobilized, this is equivalent to Yin's economic production foundation for eating grains and hollowing out Ukraine.situation.
In summary, the foundation of Russia and Ukraine's consumption of war is different.Russia has invested in war with a huge material advantage and a complete industrial foundation, carefully preserved resources, hoping to make up for the disadvantage of human food tightness, and consumes Ukraine's living power by artillery fire;The energy of the war, and hopes that the several wave offensive launched at the cost of the Russian mobilization will be damaged by Russia's mobilized reserve forces, which will destroy Russia's internal unity and let Putin negotiate under the conditions of Ukraine under political pressure.
But from the perspective of the current situation of the Russian army's intention to promote military reform, Moscow obviously had an iron -hearted war.In the final analysis, this is an ultimate confrontation of Ukraine's life with life and Western assistance, and with Russian military industry production capacity and internal unity will.
