Source: Sing Tao Daily
Sing Tao Daily News
The Bank of Japan suddenly changed the loose monetary policy last week, and in disguise to increase the interest rate of the government bonds by one cent, leading to the liquidity of the yen, the yen exchange rate rose by nearly 4 %, the central bank's raid was successful.EssenceThe Bank of Japan has always been superstitious about weak yen to help the economy. When this year's global tightening of monetary policy, it also pine currencies, leading to a plug in the yen exchange rate and cracking down on the economy.In the Bank of Japan to amend the super loose monetary policy and the US dollar is no longer, in the future, the Japanese yen is still expected to rise by 5 % to 10 percent, and return to the normal 120 yen against one dollar.
Although the Hong Kong epidemic has not slowed down, after relaxing the restrictions of the immigration, Hong Kong people are extremely strong in traveling during the Christmas holiday.However, if you travel to Hong Kong people who are keen on Japan, you will find that the Hong Kong dollar has not had no bamboo shoots two months ago.Returning to HK $ 5.9, especially last Sunday, the yen rose to Hong Kong dollars by nearly 4 % last Sunday.
YP yen is frustrated? No one has seen its disadvantages first
The yen exchange rate rose last week because of the raid market of the Bank of Japan. After the policy meeting, it was announced that the interest rate of Ten -year Treasury bonds was increased. The upper limit increased from 0.25 % to 0.5 %, which was one quarter in disguise.The governor of the central bank, Kuroda, said that this move only made the loose policy more stable, not interest rate hikes, but the central bank suddenly corrected the super loose monetary policy, leaving many yen light friends to leave the market and pushed the yen exchange rate.
The yen plummeted this year, and the US dollar depreciated nearly two and a half. In October, it fell below the level of $ 150 for one dollar, a 32 -year low.The Bank of Japan's entry into the market twice in September and October to sell the US dollar, it is difficult to block the decline of the yen. This has been raising interest rates on the US Federal Reserve again and again.However, the yen is the largest of the main currency. When it was forced to follow the US interest rate hikes and tighten the monetary policy worldwide, the Bank of Japan went on the opposite.Monetary policy, an additional 250 billion yen of bonds, and announced that the interest rate is 0.25 % level, and the ten -year Treasury bonds are purchased unlimited to reduce the interest rate of government bonds and exacerbate the decline in the yen.
The Bank of Japan has always believed that weak yen can help promote exports and recover the economy. However, this year's yen crash has led Japan to see the disadvantages of their profits first.First, due to the soaring global energy and raw material prices of the Russian and Ukraine war, and the yen depreciated sharply, the price of energy and raw materials soared, which made it difficult for manufacturers to use weak yen to increase exports.The yen fell from 115 yen to one dollar at the beginning of the year, and fell below 150 yuan in October, and now rose to the level of 132. The exchange rate is up to the normal manufacturers and traders to be tossed, and it is more likely to lose losses instead of profit.
Second, the weak yen has led Japan's core inflation rate in November to 3.7%, a new high of 41 years.On the surface, the Bank of Japan is going to push the inflation to two percent of the goal in order to end the long -term deflationary damage to the Japanese economy.One company is scheduled to increase the price, but only 6 percent of the enterprise budget to raise salary for employees.High inflation and low salary increase are increasing the pressure of people's lives. Japan's largest trade union trade union alliance has put forward five percentage of salary increases to test Japan's harmonious labor relationship.
Abandoning Super Pigeon Positions? Moch the monetary policy again
Third, the Japanese government has endless wealth and continuously increasing debt issuance. Last year, the national debt had reached 263%of the GDP. Now it depends on the central bank's silver paper to buy government bonds.Yuan Treasury bonds are almost the only buyer of government bonds.However, the outside world has questioned whether the central bank's ability to buy debt and huge government bond bombs will explode.If Japan wants to attract other investors to buy government bonds, it will need to increase the interest rate of government bonds, which is why the outside world speculates that the central bank will increase the upper limit of the government bond rate this time.
The Bank of Japan raids the market, reversing the weak yen expectations. The market generally estimates that the yen can rise to the level of one dollar to 125 yen in the short term.Give up the position of the superpigs, and the next policy meeting may increase the upper limit of the 10 -year Treasury bond rate, so that the yen can rise to the 120 yen level against the US dollar.At the end of the US dollar and the Bank of Japan amended the super loose monetary policy to support the yen, the yen can return to the normal 120 yen against one dollar at the level.The Bank of Japan can no longer rejuvenate the economy with weak yen. How to save the economic downturn must be managed separately.
