Jim ONeal: Logic behind the ease of Chinese and Western relations

Although during the 2019 crown disease, Western concerns of China eased in China, it inspired its fear of China's attitude to not disappear, and it may be reproduced at any time.

In view of China's huge and growing economic strength, this tension relationship is a major and troublesome situation for the world.Another major economic power MDASH; mdash; the United States has failed to respond to the current crisis, which undoubtedly helps improve this situation.

Due to my professional background, I usually deal with problems such as Sino -US relations as a macroeconomist.However, as the chairman of the Chartham Royal Institute of Chatam, I have a more detailed view of this issue. I believe that not only considering the economic level, but also security, diplomacy, culture and other factors.

For this reason, it seems to be reasonable to understand and handle Chinese and Western relations with a wider range of optimization framework.I do n’t want to simplify things. If the economic opportunities represented by China can be represented by unknown X, then those Western leaders who are in the illegal MDASH; MDash; whether it is true or out of the feeling, and the Western leaders who are preparing to confront it against it arePeople need to measure the potential cost of doing so based on this benchmark.

This idea is very natural. I suspect that this attitude towards China has been reflected in the British and European governments in recent years.However, in the process of following this framework, decision makers need to ask themselves a more delicate question: Is it more effective in promoting policy changes in China to realize expected expected policies?

We need to answer these questions with an open mind.This month, during the half -year Golden Week holiday in China, many Chinese seemed to travel around China, but did not cause another wave of coronary disease.However, when I pointed out to other Westerners, their first reaction was to question these rumors and refused to accept the credibility of Chinese data.Even though they claim that evidence may be reliable, they also say that they are not surprised in view of the Chinese authorities' control of the Chinese people.

If only China and other authoritarian countries have prevented the second wave of serious crown disease this year, I will agree more about this view.However, similar situations can be found in Japan and South Korea, which shows that we should learn lessons from it, instead of simply denied evidence.

Soon, we will obtain data from the GDP of GDP (GDP) in the third quarter of China (adjusted by inflation).Many analysts predict that on the basis of the expected growth rate of 2.6%in the second quarter, the actual domestic GDP growth rate in the third quarter will accelerate to about 5%.If this is the case, we will have sufficient reasons to believe that China is experiencing a typical V -type recovery, which will make it expected to achieve an 8%growth in 2021.

Of course, these are just predictions.As shown in 2020, any unpredictable development may fundamentally change the status quo.However, if the current growth data is quite accurate, which means that China's nominal GDP (2019 is $ 14.1 trillion), it will surpass the United States (US $ 21.4 trillion later in the next 10 years or after the next 10 years or after thatTo.

In addition, according to the current growth rate, only next year, China will contribute $ 1.5 trillion to the global GDP, while Chinese consumers will contribute nearly 40%of them.In contrast, $ 1.5 trillion exceeded GDPs of all countries except the first 15 economies.China will actually create another Australia or Spain in one year.Considering that consumption expenditure has increased in China's economic growth, the scale of economic opportunities provided by China is not an exaggeration.

The above is a macroeconomic issue, but we cannot ignore other problems.China's behavior of infringement of human rights abound, especially in Xinjiang.Its suppression operation in Hong Kong and the aggression in the South China Sea have exacerbated the tension of the entire region.At the same time, China is also in the Belt and Road Initiative to exert its influence on other countries.The Chinese government insists that even private enterprises must obey the party's line, which has caused western companies and governments to deal with China.

These are what we are paying very much, and they bring us back to the issues raised by the optimization framework.Those who advocate more confrontation with China must weigh their approach, whether they can succeed in their wishes, can curb China's growth, and whether it will reduce Western economic opportunities.If all these results are confirmed, Western leaders may think this strategy is worth it.However, if China ’s growth will continue to be reasonable, and the opportunity of the West is decreasing, the confrontation policy is definitely to move its own feet.

The standards and practices of another country may be a kind of vent, but there are a lot of historical evidence that citizens of a country will tend to attach importance to economic development opportunities, not most other issues.This axiom is suitable for both the United States, the United Kingdom and Europe.

In addition, even after the leadership of a country considers the potential cost, it still tends to adopt a confrontation approach. It cooperates with other countries to actively contact with other countries, instead of adopting a marginal policy of zero -harmony, and the probability of success will be greater.many.Foreign diplomacy and other delicate contact forms will definitely be more tense and trade wars than the two sides, and can better change the standards of a country.

If the White House changed the master after the US presidential election, we hope that this will start the efforts of the Twenty Group (G20) to update the post -war international order and let the governments return to the negotiating table.Everyone can make a more prosperous and inclusive future.

(Author Jim Oneill is the former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management Company and former Minister of Finance in the UK.Syndicate, 2020)

Those who advocate more confrontation with China must weigh their approach, whether they can succeed in their wishes, can curb China's growth, and whether it will reduce Western economic opportunities.If all these results are confirmed, Western leaders may think this strategy is worth it.