Deng Xize: Will Chinas modernization process be interrupted again

Deng Xize

Sino -US relations have continued to deteriorate.On July 23, 2020, U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo delivered a speech between the Communist China and the free world in the California Library in California.On September 30, the China House of Representatives China working group said that the biggest challenge of the United States is the Communist Party of China. This is a generation of challenges and said that we must ensure that in the next century or the United States, this is a bit of international leadership.International autocraticism has taste.

Despite the fierce fighting between the two parties of the United States and Democratic Democracy, it is highly consistent on the issue of China.The further deterioration of Sino -US relations can't help but worry: Is China's modernization process be interrupted again?

This is not alarmist.In modern history, the process of modernization in China was interrupted twice and a half.The first was the Sino -Japanese War, and the second was the Anti -Japanese War.The Korean War may be calculated halfway, because it has forced China to fall to the Soviet Union, exacerbating the isolation from the Western world.

Conditions and changes in Chinese modernization

Whether China's modernization process will be interrupted can analyze from the conditions required by modernization, that is, internal conditions and external conditions.The internal conditions are that the governors are willing to modernize and activate domestic resources, including human property.External conditions are demand or dependence on the international environment.

From the perspective of dependence on internal and external conditions, compared with the period of reform and opening up, the first two modernizations mainly depend on domestic conditions and have less dependence on foreign conditions. This was determined by the objective environment at that time.Because, first, in the first two modernization periods, due to the relatively backward technical means such as transportation, communication, the global configuration cost of production factors is much greater than the third time.It is difficult to imagine that during the late Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China, China had the need to import iron ore from overseas to refining steel.Because of importing ore steelmaking from abroad, the cost is too high.

Second, the domestic and international markets of this period, especially the international market, is far less than that of the third modernization period.Third, domestic resources are far from being discovered and demand for foreign resources is not great.What China lacks is mainly intelligence and capital, not resources and energy.Intelligence includes science, technology and management experience, mainly technology.

However, in the third modernization, China has a serious dependence on external conditions, and the dependence of some aspects has continued to increase.The external conditions depended on China's modernization can be summarized as a main condition and three sub -conditions.The main condition is globalization.Because globalization contains global marketization, marketization does not take as independent conditions.Three sub -conditions: intelligence, energy and resources can usually be purchased from the international market.These three sub -conditions are the external lifeline of China's economic development.Any sub -conditions are not met, and China's development process may be seriously hindered.

Now, let's not talk about right or wrong, only talk about gains and losses, and discuss the possibility and consequences of interruption of China's modernization process.In a word, the process of modernization in China may first interrupted from the outside. Then, the deterioration of this external environment to the country may seriously affect the changes in internal conditions.

Risk of interruption of external lifelines

1. China's modernization of external conditions.If the US alliance's technology embargo on China, although China's technology will also develop, the development speed will slow down, and the gap between the United States Alliance will be wider and larger.

If it is only a technical blockade, China can move forward at the current level of technology and maintain domestic technology and living standards. There is basically no problem, because technology itself is a renewable resource that can be continuously reused.What is more serious than technology embargo is the embargo and blockade of energy and resources.If the United States has a blockade of energy and resource blockade to China, including the blockade of Malacca, it is forbidden to be a merchant ship (including Chinese merchant ships and foreign merchant ships) to China, and the Chinese economy is likely to quickly fall into chaos or even collapse.

Taking oil as an example, more than 70%of the oil required by China needs to be imported, of which more than 60%of the sea transport oil.As long as overseas oil cannot reach China, the Chinese economy is very dangerous.If the technology embargo and other energy and resources are embarked on, the Chinese economy is even more dangerous and the consequences are very serious.The most direct consequence is that product costs will rise sharply, and even insufficient production capacity due to lack of raw materials, and then losing international competitiveness.

At the same time, the sharp rise in oil or oil prices will inevitably cause the automotive industry to hit and even collapse.The consequences of extension caused by energy and resource shortages represented by oil shortage, such as large -scale unemployment, almost dare not imagine.

Maybe someone will propose: Can it expand imports from Russia to make up for oil shortages?It is necessary to fight for Russia.But there are two points to consider: First, Russia's reliability needs to be evaluated.Second, even if Russia supports China, it may not have enough energy and resources to meet China's needs.

Second, siege and trap: The steps of cutting off the Chinese economic lifeline in the United States.Of course, the United States will not cut off the Chinese economic lifeline because it needs to find appropriate reasons.Although the world is still anarchy, it is not unprecedented.If the United States cuts off the Chinese economic life line, China will definitely fight back, and the American allies may not promise to participate in sanctions in China.Without the participation of the allies, the sanctions effect of the United States will be greatly reduced.

The United States cuts off China's economic life line, and must have the legitimacy recognized by the United States Alliance (equivalent to world public opinion).The basic steps are as follows mdash; mdash;

First, provoke and intensify contradictions between China and neighboring countries and regions, and let China be involved in the war of the United States agent.

Secondly, the United States Alliance uses its international power to create international public opinion, put China in a unreasonable situation, and buckle China's hats such as rogue countries or terrorist countries in China.

Third, the United States alliance even sanctions against China.Once China is deducted from the above hats, the United States will lead its allies to sanctions against China.In some countries outside the United States Alliance, because they actively support the United States or are passively threatened by the United States, they will also participate in sanctions against China.

Fourth, with the above steps, the United States Alliance can carry out technology, energy and resource embarrassment to China, and cut off the Chinese economic life line.Among them, merchant ships that include the blockade of the Malacca Strait and prohibit trade with China through the Malacca Strait.

The United States' technology embargo and blockade of China have actually begun, such as sanctions from Huawei, ZTE, and other Chinese companies.However, it is only a sanctions on the point (that is, sanctions against specific enterprises).If China is improperly disposed of and falls into the US circle, triggering the sanctions from the United States alliances, the sanctions at that time will be comprehensive embargo and blockade.

After the external lifeline is interrupted

Due to the lack of technology, energy and resources (especially the lack of energy and resources), the Chinese economy will soon fall into chaos or even collapse, which immediately leads to chaos or even collapse in Chinese society.At that time, only the use of distribution or wartime control methods could maintain basic life and social order.It's not difficult to imagine.

The consequences of the deterioration of China's external environment are not mainly in one or several small and medium -sized wars and the loss it brings to China, but the consequences caused by the embargo and blockade.At the same time, it is very troublesome that China is difficult to counter the United States.There are three reasons: First, the US economic lifeline is too far away from China.Second, China's military power and its launch scope cannot endanger the US economic lifeline.Third, the self -sufficient technology, energy, and resources of the United States is much higher than China.

Therefore, the United States can cut off China's economic life line, and China should not say that cutting off the US economic life line, and even effective interference is a problem.Although there will be losses in the United States Alliance's sanctions, the loss will be much smaller.Their technology, energy and resources are much higher than China, and they can buy what they need at any time in the international market.Their losses are mainly due to a period of time, product costs will increase, the quality of life will decline, but China will suffer much more.

The United States will hardly fight directly with China, especially in the early days, because China is a military power and a nuclear country.China and the United States directly start war, even if the United States victory, it will lose its own lossbig.In addition, the start of the war between China and the United States, almost no suspense will evolve into the third world war, and even the nuclear war, and the world may be destroyed.

The best strategy for the United States to suppress China is to be surrounded and trapped China through the above strategies.Since you can be siege and trapped a big country, why should you use war?Even if the United States participates in the war, it will choose the second half of the second half of the siege of China in the time.

Repeat rescue overwhelming enlightenment

Facing the pressure of the United States Alliance, China may change its internal strategy and repeat the path of overwhelming the enlightenment.There were two main reasons for the first two modernizations.First, the ruler's requirements are unanimous to emphasize unity, so as to lose the necessary diversity, freedom, enlightened and inclusive social space, and then the enthusiasm and creativity of the entire society are suppressed.Second, we value the modernization of things (economy, military), and weaker than the modernization of people and society, and refuse to learn from the advanced Western system and culture.

Even Li Hongzhang, a representative of the western western faction in the late Qing Dynasty, believes that the Chinese cultural and military system is far above the West, and the firearm cannot be within everything.As a result, when the rulers want to tighten the social space, the people do not know it, and they do n’t know why. They have accepted the ruler ’s restrictions and rules and were re -packed into the cage.

In the sense of protecting the national interests and international hegemony, the establishment of anti -China or anti -Communist alliances in the United States is to force China to return to the state of retreat to lock the country, because only by trying to force the other party into a specific time and space can the formation be established can the formation be established?The need for your own alliance can also be necessary for the Cold War.This principle is general.

And a country is passive or actively being isolated by the mainstream world. What is the consequences? It is not difficult to understand. The world history and Chinese history of thousands of years can answer this question.In particular, the openness of China has decreased since the late Ming Dynasty, and the consequences of China's closure (although this may not be active) after the period of 1949, it is not difficult to understand that if China repeats the rhythm of the overwhelming of the savings, it is the same.It was the wish of the United States.

However, in contemporary China, it is more difficult to return to the state of the retreat to lock the country (especially the state of Sino -US relations during the Cold War period).Because, first, in the information age, the people's understanding of foreign countries is completely incomparable with the previous two modernization periods. Therefore, the national awareness of opposing a retreat locking country is stronger, which will constitute the motivation of the ubiquitous anti -closed lock country.

In terms of economics, the trading costs of the governors are very high.Second, the retreat of the country directly suppresss China's economic and social development, and the people's living standards may decline rapidly, which will lead to the rapid increase in the cost of maintaining stability and rule, and then unsustainable.

In this case, if the governor has to suppress the society to obtain the so -called unity and unity, the transaction cost may be very high, and it may even lead to disintegration of the regime.

Basic guarantee for modernization and continuous

To make the process of modernization in China, we must first stabilize the internal strategy.The foundation for internal strategies is to continue to adhere to reform and opening up. The key is to adhere to the real rule of law, democracy, freedom, and market economy.The most important thing is to adhere to the real rule of law and use the rule of law to protect the market economy.Former Federal Reserve Chairman Green Pan pointed out that the rule of law is the most important single promotion factor for economic development; after leaving the rule of law, everything is empty.

Adhering to modern intentions and policies, including the modernization of people and things, is a necessary condition for the continuous and healthy advancement of China's modernization process, and it is also an important condition for improving the external environment.If there is no such condition, no matter how good the external conditions are, it is useless.Among them, the modernization of people needs to be strengthened, and the rule of law is the primary affairs.Otherwise, the modernization of things is not sustainable.

Secondly, in terms of foreign strategies, we adhere to peaceful diplomacy, do not make expansion and provocative moves, and do not actively change the status quo.In particular, try to avoid war as much as possible to avoid falling into the United States. It is placed in a unrighteous place by the United States and was sanctioned and blocked.It is necessary to emphasize that the most serious consequences are not the loss of war, but because of the operation and blockade due to war.

Some people may say that since the United States has taken China as an opponent, what can China be?The opponent is not static.If you can't change your opponent directly, you can only change your opponent through yourself.Even if the opponent cannot change, it can only resist the opponent by improving themselves, and cannot return the state of the retreat to lock the country and interrupt the modernization process.

In the context of globalization, internal strategies are closely related to external strategies.In the current pressure on China, the United States has attached many ideas.If China can truly adhere to reform and opening up, and promote the construction of the rule of law, democracy, freedom, and market economy, although it may not be able to change the US situation to suppress China, at least it can reduce the legitimacy of the United States' policies in China, and strive for more international sympathy, understanding and understanding and understanding.support.At the same time, truly adhering to the reform and opening up, it also helps the country's strength and enhances the ability of the United States.

The author is a professor at the School of International Relations, Sichuan University, doctoral supervisor

Whether China's modernization process will be interrupted can be analyzed from the conditions required by modernization, that is, internal conditions and external conditions.The internal conditions are that the governors are willing to modernize and activate domestic resources, including human property.External conditions are demand or dependence on the international environment.