Zhuang Huiliang: Why does Xiaoying Double Ten Speech cool down?

Early

Notes on the stage

Tsai Ing -wen, Taiwan, suddenly delivered an olive branch on Saturday (10th), expressing her hopes to talk to mainland China.At the moment when the cross -strait situation is dangerous, many people are optimistic that the Taiwan Strait has a dawn.The Mainland National Taiwan Affairs Office subsequently relentlessly rebuked Tsai Ing -wen's conversation to continue the confrontation thinking and hostile consciousness, advocating independence, drumming and linked to external forces, and bluntly only returned to the 1992 consensus political foundation to restart the conversation and negotiation.

At the beginning of last year, Xi Jinping, the President of the mainland, proposed the Taiwan plan to explore one country, two systems in the 40th anniversary of the Taiwan compatriots.The movement of the United States has been heating up. U.S. military aircraft and ships frequently enter and exit the Taiwan Strait.China and the United States confrontation and Hong Kong's opposition to the amendment of the fugitive regulations for the re -election of Tsai Ing -wen.

Last year's Double Ten Celebration, Cai Yingwen said that the mainland continued to attacked and scared in the Taiwan plan, which strongly challenged the stability and peace of the region, and emphasized that it was necessary to defend Taiwan's sovereignty.In contrast to the above -mentioned aggressive conversation, Tsai Ing -wen ’s speech on the double ten speeches this year suggested that cross -strait work on both sides of the strait, but mentioned that the mainland leader Xi Jinping had no commitment to dominate.

Scholars here believe that cross -strait relations are steep, and Tsai Ing -wen has not mentioned that senior US officials visit Taiwan and sell military sales in Taiwan. The cooling is for avoidance; some people point out that the United States feels that the Taiwan Strait is caused by Beijing.Worsening; there are also scholars analyzed that the US election will not want to be involved in war by Taiwan, so it is forced to lower the posture of Taiwan to ensure that the Taiwan Strait is peaceful.

In the past year, Taiwan has been supporting the United States with a high volume and a lot of movements. The United States not only increases the quality of military sales of Taiwan.Keith Krach visited Taiwan. Both Taiwan and the United States were low -key. Taiwan Foreign Minister Wu Zhaozheng accepted an exclusive interview with the National Public Radio (NPR) in the United States. It admits that Taiwan will not seek diplomatic relations with the United States.

Moreover, when the PLA's military plane crossed the Taiwan Strait's midline, it has become a new normal, but the Taiwan military has changed the first blow from the sudden state of the combat period to exercise the self -defense counterattack.The Chinese People's Liberation Army is conducting routine training, please do not interfere with my normal action!Tsai Ing -wen had previously announced that the PLA military aircraft had to cross the middle line for the first time. The Air Force had been littering from time to time to fly away, and he had to wipe the guns and fire carefully.

For the election, the US Trump administration raised the tensions on both sides of the strait.American senator Marco Rubio, who has always been anti -China and proposed the Taipei Act, said that we did not want to help Taiwan in a comprehensive conflict with China.The cost of increasing the price of China's military aggressive is high to the extent that China is unwilling to pay.

Sino -US relations have made former US Secretary of State Kissinger taking the First World War as an example. It is recommended that China and the United States set up a Rules of Engagement to avoid war outbreaks of the small crisis of small crisis.Even the Eagle Secretary of State Pompeo also said that Taiwan is a conflict between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party. The United States does not want to do this. The United States expects peace and will continue to fulfill its commitment to the freedom of military sales and the freedom of freedom in Taiwan.Taiwanese scholars refer to Pompeo's position to the Nicon era in 1973.

The United States has to play the Taiwan card just to vote for the benefit, and to make the cross -strait conflict at best, and it has no intention of fighting with the mainland. However, when Taiwan's actions may be involved in the United States into the war, they quickly draw and pressure the warning of Taiwan.

In the past, the Cai government and the green camps believed that there were many conflicts within the mainland, and they would not dare to hit Taiwan. Once the Taiwan Strait had something to do, I hoped that the United States would come to rescue. Unexpectedly, the mainland's military exercise was firm and tough, but the United States was ambiguous and unexpected.

Furthermore, the Democratic candidate Biden is currently bullish. In the future, whether it is Beiden elected or Trump's re -election, the two people's anti -China positions are not much different, but Biden's strategy and practices are very different from Trump. The current analysis believes thatBiden's policy tends to return to the Obama era, hoping that the two sides of the strait will not be able to break. Therefore, Tsai Ing -wen must also consider changes in the international situation and unpredictable political conditions in the United States, and take cautious actions.

The Cai government may not recognize the 1992 consensus, but did not propose a new statement to express a Chinese principle. The two sides of the strait are still unsolved and the situation is still tense.