Peng Shengyu: The management mechanism of the US -China crisis is the double -edged sw

Author: Peng Shengyu

Recently, some voices in the United States have called for the establishment of a sound management mechanism for the United States and China.

On September 30, the US Institute of Enterprise Research (AEI) published an article by its researcher Zack Cooper's strategic thinking on the US -China crisis management mechanism.The article states that in order to alleviate the tension between China and the United States and the potential crisis of management, it is critical to establish an additional dialogue and crisis management mechanism.Crisis management mechanisms can promote exchanges between the two sides before and during the crisis, and establish rules for military operations, thereby reducing the possibility of conflict.Clarify each other, reduce misjudgment, and avoid upgrading of the situation.The deep political and policy factors behind the specific events all affect the implementation of the current US -China crisis management mechanism.As far as the United States is concerned, the construction and improvement of crisis management mechanisms have very important strategic significance. The main method is to obtain more accurate information and establish more China -US bilateral crisis management mechanisms on the basis of geopolitics.

Former US Secretary of State Kissinger said that the United States and China must establish the rules of war for the increasingly fierce competition between the two countries, otherwise it is possible to repeat the uncertain situation of global politics before World War I.Kissinger, 97, said at a video seminar hosted by the New York Economic Club on Wednesday (October 7) that both leaders of the two countries must discuss which boundaries exceeding them will not further threatened each other.This policy method is implemented for a long time.

Since 2019, especially after the outbreak of the epidemic, US -China relations have taken a great downhill.From the perspective of the U.S. Congress, from January 1, 2019 to August 2020, last year, the US Congress proposed a total of 366 cases related to China. These 366 China -related proposals were created by the history of the United States.It is the largest proposal of the United States Congress since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States.Among these 366 proposals, 70 of them involved economic and trade issues, 58 of the supply chain, 52 involving information and communication, 46 involving human rights and democracy, 44 involving China's influence, involving the new crown epidemic situation23, 16 involving immigration issues, and 10 of climate change and environment.Basically, the proposal of China is fighting to fight against sanctioning China.

In addition, the U.S. government has formed a Chinese action group, under the leadership of Trump, a special action group against the Chinese government.The U.S. Defense Minister also made a public speech a few days ago that the Ministry of Defense should set up an international policy office and establish a China Strategic Research Group.Moreover, he said that I asked the US National Defense University course, more than half of the courses to study China, and to study the combat program, combat goals and training methods of the People's Liberation Army of the Chinese People's People's Liberation Army.

The Belt and Road Initiative proposed by the United States has also launched a blue dot plan.The first batch of 28 countries in the first batch of countries include 6 countries in ASEAN, and the target direction points to the Belt and Road to China.Recently, Secretary of State Pompeo, director of the US Intelligence Agency, Minister of Defense and US Presidential Security Assistant, and the four giants proposed in his speech to build a new ideological new democratic national alliance.Others advocate the United States withdraw from the United Nations, close the United Nations Building, and rebuild a new World Democratic National Alliance with democratic countries.

The intention and actions of the United States for the establishment of anti -China siege are extremely obvious.In terms of politics and military, the United States, Japan, India, and Australia are stepping up the process of joint anti -China.On October 6, foreign ministers of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia held a second four -party talks in Japan. In 2019, the first Foreign Minister talks was chaired by the United States in New York, USA.According to reports, the Foreign Minister of the Four Kingdoms who participated in the meeting agreed to maintain the safety and stability of the Pacific region of India.When the new prime minister of Japan, Yoshihiro, said when meeting with the Foreign Minister of the Four Kingdoms that in the face of the challenges brought by the popularity of the new crown virus, their free and open Indian-too safe and economic initiative is more important than ever before.The Japanese government advocates that through the maintenance of the freedom and opening up of the Pacific Ocean to promote the peace and prosperity of the region, this concept has been accepted by the international community.He said that there are the concentric promotion of the four countries, and he is full of confidence in achieving this Indian strategy. He firmly believes that the four -nation alliance can be the main driving force for promoting and expanding the Indo -Pacific strategy.Pompeo said in an exclusive interview that he intends to build a security guarantee network against the CCP.Pompeo clearly stated that it hopes that the cooperation between the United States, Japan, India, and Australia will be expanded to other surrounding countries, establishing a multilateral security framework in the Pacific of India, and strengthening the cohesion between countries with common values and strategies.

During the National Day of China, Polishistan broke out in Gilgiistan in the five Central Asian countries. This is another country that is chaotic in the United States after the turmoil that occurred in Uzbekistan a few days ago.On October 4th, Kyrgyzstan held a parliamentary election. The preliminary counting results of 4 political parties entered the parliament, and other political parties failed to enter the parliament through the 7%threshold.On October 5th, protests broke out in the Allah Plaza in the center of Bishka, and supporters of the party failed to enter the parliament requested to revoke the election results and re -vote.In the early morning of October 6, the protesters impacted the government building successfully. Former President Antanbayev's son Cardir led supporters to occupy the White House.Subsequently, the protesters occupied the office building of the Ji of the National Security Council and released the admitted Adamaev and other former government officials.On the same day, the Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan Bonov announced his resignation of the prime minister and was replaced by the opposition Zaparov.Kyrgyzstan borders Xinjiang, China, and Kyrgyzstan's stability is very important for the stability of China and Xinjiang to extend westward to Central Asia, the Middle East and Europe.In recent years, the United States has invested a lot of funds and forces in Kyrgyzstan to plan the color revolution. This outbreak is just the continued color revolution in the country in the past few years.Kyrgyzstan is a CIS country and a founding member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Therefore, the turmoil of Kyrgyzstan comes to China and Russia, and it has a greater impact on China. The United States also fancy this.Therefore, he did not hesitate to invest in huge power to chaos the country, and hopes to expand to other four countries with Kyrgyzstan as a source of chaos, thereby completely chaos in Central Asia, defeat the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and chaos Russia's backyard and the countries along the Belt and Road in China.

In Taiwan, there have been various tensions in the near future.The United States also wants to keep this pawn in Taiwan to continue to restrain China.National Security Consultant Obrain warned that mainland China did not try to recover Taiwan with force. There are still many unclear places to respond to this.There will be risks.The Government proposed by the Kuomintang should request the United States to assist the United States to resist the resolution of the Communist Party and the United States of China (the Republic of China).The two resolutions are undoubtedly a bomb for the already harsh cross -strait relations.

The US government and Congress squeezed in China, and American experts and scholars (such as Kissinger) are clearly in the chest.As the only superpower in the world today, the United States does not want to accept the rise of China so quickly. All sectors of the United States are still using various efforts to curb China's rise, combat China's development, and even want to break China's great development environment.

However, the United States does not want to arouse world wars, and does not want to fight against China.Because no one can afford it, no one can afford it.Regardless of whether humans recognize or not, human beings are still in the primary civilization that you are fighting for me.The United States, which has only been founded for two hundred years, has enjoyed the world's only superpowers in the world for decades, and it has not been so willing to let go of this kind of pride and dignity so quickly, and does not want to share equal position with China.And everything above is the real reflection of the psychology of the United States.

I also want to curb the maximum limit to curb you to suppress you to exclude you, but do not want to cause the war to lead to double losses. This mentality determines that there is still a strong desire to manage the Chinese and the United States crisis and avoid misjudgments.

So should China be the same as the United States that wants to suppress the maximum limit to curb the crowded and avoid war.

It can be said that its advantages and disadvantages.

If the psychology of the whole United States will achieve a sound US -China bilateral crisis management and control mechanism, then the United States suppresssThe crowded China will inevitably be unhappy with the maximum limit. China will also bear the more and more endless curbs and suppression of the United States, and it will also be the suppression and exclusion of all aspects.Of course, it has reached a sound US -China bilateral crisis management and control mechanism, which does help upgrading the Sino -US management and control crisis into war.

What can China be harvested if China does not reach the US -China bilateral crisis control mechanism?To be sure, you worry that the United States is worried about the conflict upgrade, the misjudgment, and the unprecedented behavior of the war that causes the war that does not want to occur. When the United States makes a variety of extreme suppression and curb behavior, it will inevitably be scared and converged.When more extreme curbing and suppression behavior, the possibility of upgrading and misjudgment between China and the United States can be reduced.At the same time, China can also suffer less hostile behavior in the United States.

Therefore, the US -China bilateral crisis management mechanism is a double -edged sword. In China, there are advantages and disadvantages. How to weigh it, you can keep the decision makers carefully think.

However, from the analysis of the characteristics of the United States 'containment and suppression in recent years, it can be concluded that the United States' containment and suppression of China mostly leads the result of favorable results to China.The United States' containment and suppression of China basically targets the weakness of China.The remedies of these weaknesses are basically in the stage where the dead sheep are replenished.Back these weaknesses, directly promoting China's strengthening of these weaknesses.From the various facts and results in recent years, we can see that this is basically the same.For example, the United States encouraged Hong Kong's independence forces to make trouble in 2019, which hit China's loopholes and deficiencies in Hong Kong's governance.But the ending is that China borrowed this time very well to touch the root cause of Hong Kong's independence and Hong Kong issues and hidden dangers.If it was not for the United States to encourage Hong Kong to make trouble in 2019, it would be difficult for this opportunity to do this legislative remedy.It is also such as the United States suppressing ZTE Huawei SMIC and hitting the weakness of China's dependence on the United States' chips, which directly prompts China to invest in huge financial resources to stand in the country's highest strategy to solve the problem of technology dependence on the neck of the person's stuck neck.This is a breakthrough in China's core technology, and the scientific research progress of high -end research and development has great driving force.If China can't break through these cards in the end, it means that China should also recognize itself.Since China wants to achieve the rise of national rejuvenation, there should be no technology fields that have been stuck in the neck.

The U.S. House of Representatives recently introduced a large report on the Communist Party of China. The core is anti -Communist, and the Chinese ruling party is different from the Chinese people.To be honest, this kind of suppression of the United States will not be a bad thing for China. Its ending will have only one, which will make China's ruling parties pay more attention to the people and integrate into the people.

The Belt and Road Initiative of the United States has launched a blue dot plan for the Belt and Road Initiative of China, which will be greatly conducive to China's reasonable correction of the Belt and Road.China has proposed internal circulation this year, emphasizing better reform and opening up, and the work is important.However, the pursuit of external recognition is not too much to attach importance to global leadership of world influence, and it will make China's development better.If it is too pursuing the world's influence and the pursuit of world recognition, it may not only fall into our people's people, which may not be conducive to development.Too much pursuit of being recognized by the world and attaching too much attention to global leadership of world influence is also an unconfident forward path.Focusing on your own progress, reducing international competition reasonably, and modifying the pursuit of world influence and leadership moderately, it may make the path of China's development more caters to the inner desire of 14 billion people.The friendship of 100 million people.In this world, China is not more closed than anyone else, which country is more open, and which country is the last winner.However, this openness, the author is more willing to advocate that it welcomes the world to enter China, while not blindly seeking a lot of attention to the key opening of the outside world.We put more openness to let the outside world work more with ourselves, rather than let us do it more to do it.Therefore, it is necessary to clearly distinguish between the focus of the opening of the internal work and the opening of the external work.Supplying in the internal circulation as the main and external circulation, that is, the focus is on the opening of the internal work.His efforts focus on more domestic, while continuing to welcome the world to the world, the world's future.

It can be said that the United States' containment and suppression of China is basically the weaknesses that can fight against China.The other United States cannot start.As for strategic enclosures (the so -called Indo -Pacific Strategy, Central Asian Color Revolution), it is certain that it is both futile and more useless.The war is not launched, and all military enclosures are essentially doing useless work.After the war was initiated, the strategic enclosure reached by these combat power can be completed in one day.You can think of deterrence by engaging in exercises. For a large nuclear country like China, you can't play any deterrent effect. The deterrent to obtain benefits will only be empty -handed.In today's era, I still think of military surround strategies, only explaining their strategic constructors. Strategic thinking still stays in the cold weapon era, and has completely unable to keep up with the development of the times.The root cause of the decline in the United States is the era of nuclear weapons. Its world's strongest military force is more of useless work, and it cannot be easily exchanged for huge economic benefits.Now I want to obtain some benefits with military deterrence.So can the military deterrence brought by this military enclosure can gain benefits in China?As a result, it is conceivable that no country in this world can gain huge benefits through military deterrence in China.

The United States is weak in China, where the United States suppresss it. This kind of competitive thinking will be greater than that in China.China has taken its own way to make up for various weaknesses. China will also accompany the United States' curb and suppression to a more sound and higher quality rise and rejuvenation.

Finally, although the US -China crisis management mechanism is to put a double -edged sword, if the United States has always used the current combination of Chinese weakness and the competition thinking of the siege strategy and competition in China, China may even sign the US -China crisis managementThe mechanism, because of this, we can not only harvested to promote the suppression and curbing of China to make up for weaknesses, but also control the risk of conflict war.Several years later, when China and the United States compare the upside down, as the world's largest country, we can also use this Sino -US crisis management mechanism to control the world's second largest country and the United States. By thenToday, the stupid competition that combats China's weakness and the weighing strategy has thought hello; hellip;

Author: Peng Shengyu

Researcher at the Chahar Society, Special Researcher of the International Financial Forum (IFF) Research Institute, and strategic researcher of oil central enterprises