01 Viewpoint
U.S. President Trump acknowledged the diagnosis of new crown pneumonia last Friday (2nd). It should be verified that the so -called October surprise in the American political scene should be the largest topic news in the past weekend.He was hospitalized for a while, and he was discharged quickly on Monday (5th) after his condition stabilized.All circles first pay attention to whether Trump, who is 74 -year -old, will have a danger of life, and also speculates how the impact of this matter will bring about the upcoming American election.However, from various evidence, Trump's diagnosis does not have much effect on his election although he was surprised.
Earlier heads of state heads of new crown pneumonia, including Johnson of the United Kingdom, and Borsonaro, Brazil, had a phenomenon of rebounding people's bounces after a period of time after diagnosis.The analysis believes that this phenomenon is mainly because the head of state's confirmation will cause the people's sympathy, and it will also briefly increase the emotions of the people to unite and resist.Under these precedents, the outside world guessed whether Trump's diagnosis would bring similar effects, making it a turnaround in the backward election.
Poll: confirmed news helpless election
However, the polls in the past weekend show that although the news of Trump's diagnosis has a little impact on the speculative market, it has not been able to bring obvious help to its election and may even have anti -effects.Several US polls on the weekend show that Trump's support has not changed significantly.For example, although Morning Consult and Politico's polls did not directly ask the vote intention, it shows that the degree of Trump is as old as the old, and the interviewees are even more worried about the epidemic.The polls of Reuters show that Biden leads ten percentage points ahead of Trump, which is one percentage point compared to the September survey.
What is more interesting is that several Taiwan media quoted the investigation by the British Tribunal Sunday Express (Sunday Express) and the Democracy Institute in the United States.Trump's diagnosis brought a chance to reverse.However, this poll has always showed that Trump's people are looking forward to Biden, and compared with the September investigation, the gap between Trump and Biden has narrowed two percentage points.Therefore, no matter what polls are accurate and credible, the data does not support the hypothesis of Trump's confirmation of the people's hope to rebound.
Trump's diagnosis of helpless election may even cause anti -effects. In fact, there are traces to find it, and it cannot be considered an accident.The first is that Trump's personal integrity has been questioned for a long time. The first reaction of many people, including American voters, is suspected that Trump is a false illness or deliberately infected himself in order to stimulate the election.Although from the news around Trump, Trump's diagnosis does not seem to be a pre -planning election project, but the public's unbelievable feelings for Trump are still very strong, which caused him to make much sympathy.
Market: Biden's election opportunity is big
In addition, Trump's contempt for the epidemic has also made it difficult for the people to sympathize with him.Trump diluted the epidemic, and even went to the TV debate with Biden to attack Biden, who was still wearing a mask shortly before he went to the diagnosis. Therefore, he confirmed that many people thought it was a blame.The above polls show that many people think that Trump's incompetence of the epidemic has caused him to confirm him.CNN's comment even pointed out that the news of Trump's diagnosis destroys his intention to shift the election issue from the epidemic to other issues. Now the voters will focus on the epidemic again, which will remind them of Trump's only epidemic.How to worsen is not good for the rest of the election.The capital market seems to be moving.
Although Trump has no stagnation, the market has begun to sell the US dollar, which has caused the US dollar that has recently rebounded to rapidly sell pressure, and gold also regains the rise.As the market generally believes that the economic policy that Biden is elected will be unfavorable to the stock market and the capital will accelerate the leaving the US dollar. Therefore, the market changes obviously many people think that Biden is more likely to be elected.
The news of Trump's diagnosis not only caused a discussion in the United States, but also caused discussions among netizens in Taiwan to Hong Kong. Many people interpreted them according to their own political stance.Taiwan's independence hopes that Trump's diagnosis will be confirmed to stimulate the election.Issued more sanctions or even sent troops.Recently, cross -strait relations are extremely nervous, and many unique supporters in Taiwan are urgently needed to support the support of the United States.But the Taiwanese who hugged Trump's feet were also time to wake up from the intoxication of themselves.
