Du Zhiyuan
The international pattern and international order are always defined and dominated by large powers. The relative reduction of the strength between China and the United States, and the structural contradictions caused by this, leads to the differences in the dominance of the international pattern and international order.Even if China's rise is carried out in a peaceful way, the United States' competition in China or even curbing the trend is still not shifting by will.In this situation, the relationship between China and foreign policies with different major powers has also undergone subtle changes.
China's relationship with the United States: Since the normalization of Sino -US relations in the 1970s, the United States has tried to pull China into the United States -dominated Western camp through economic and democratic induction to achieve the gradual evolution of China in a peaceful way.However, with the enhancement of China's strength and the relatively weak American strength, the United States has become more and more anxious about this contact strategy.
Especially after the financial crisis in 2008, the relatively strong comparison between China and the United States has become increasingly reduced. In addition, the United States believes that China has changed the traditional hid light and obscure foreign policy, and pursues more active foreign policies.After the expansion, the Government of the Bush government, and the prevention and regulation of the Obama administration, it finally developed into a competitive contact and curb strategy for the Trump administration.
The Trump administration believes that China has shown an unprecedented expansion mentality in all aspects of human rights, territory, and ocean.strategy.Especially recently, the United States has closed the Consulate General of the Chinese Consulate General in Houston, and has published a policy speech on Western media called a new iron curtain speech. It also proves that the United States has begun to abandon China to contact China and completely turn to curb strategy for China.
The relationship between China and Russia: The improvement of Sino -Soviet relations, accompanied by the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union.After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia basically inherited the rights and obligations of the Soviet Union, and the improvement of Sino -Soviet relations also continued to China -Russia relations.Since then, based on the needs of the domestic and foreign environment and the promotion of the official level, China -Russia relations have continued to develop.In order to alleviate the strategic pressure around China and laid a solid foundation for the development of the domestic economy, Sino -Russian relations have entered the best period of history.
However, for Sino -Russian relations cannot be blindly believed, it is necessary to fully understand that the friendly relationship between the country is generally a non -permanent mutual benefit formed based on the integration and promotion of interests.Sino -Russian relations have continued to reach a new level and provided political support on many international agenda, which belongs to major achievements in Chinese diplomacy.However, the approach of China -Russia relations is at the cost of the strategic squeezing and economic sanctions on Russia with the West, and the transmission effect is expected.
As the United States shifted from Russia to China, Russia's strategic pressure relieved, which led Russia to further reduce Russia's willingness to hold a group in China and Russia.At the same time, Russia will have the idea of using Sino -US or China -India differences to further expand its strategic influence.In short, it must be clearly seen that although China -Russia relations are in the best period of history, Russia clearly shows a sense of hedging of China.
The relationship between China and the European Union: Although the EU's policy and strategy have not stepped on the United States, the European Union's policy on China has also begun to show signs of major changes.For China -Europe relations, 2019 is a vital year, and its sign is that the EU has adopted a tough attitude towards China.
In March 2019, on the eve of the China -Europe Summit, the European Commission published a strategic prospects for Sino -European relations, calling China a systematic competitor.However, the EU is a challenge and opportunity for China.As the European Union seek more geopolitical sovereignty, the new European leaders are more willing to establish a good relationship with China on issues related to China to protect their important business benefits.The European Union led by the European Commission President Feng Delin and the EU ’s senior representative of Foreign and Security Policy Borrer is keen to fulfill the global role of the European Union.
Therefore, the European Union will continue to contact China.The EU and China continue to maintain the logic of contact relationships, which is related to the uncertainty of the United States.These uncertainty has two basic aspects: first, it is related to the sustainability of participation in the United States.With the decline of the relatively strong strength of the United States, the European Union is worried about the security commitments of the United States, and it is necessary to seek strategic autonomy.Second, it is related to the uncertainty of Sino -US relations.In the game of China and the United States, the selection of border stations or implementing follow -up strategies may reduce the ability and leverage of bargaining to repay, and at the same time reduce the autonomy and speech of self -action in the international community.
China's relationship with Japan and Japan: Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1972, the international and domestic structures that initially built Sino -Japanese relations have undergone tremendous changes.Since the 1990s, one of the significant features of East Asia is the rise of China and the stagnation of Japan.Therefore, the main contradictions of Sino -Japanese relations are the regional order of mutual competition.Under Trump's narrow U.S. priority policy, alliance management and Sino -U.S. hedging test Japan's policy choices.The unpredictability of the Trump administration forced the Abe administration to re -consider Japan's China policy.
The Abe government adopts a relatively cooperative way of MDash; MDash; an attitude towards China on economic and non -traditional security issues.In other words, although Japan ’s security strategy is based on an alliance with the United States, it does not rule out that through the pursuit of economic interests with China, Japan has a competitive and cooperative binary characteristics of China.
However, with the further decline of the United States' willingness to participate in regional affairs and order, and concerns about the so -called Chinese amendmentism, Japan has gradually changed from a contextual participation from a soft -in participation to hard hedge.From Japan's perspective, although the fact that Japan strengthens the connection with China to ensure its own economic growth, it is inevitable, but recently showing that economic interdependence can prevent the concept of potential conflicts from outdated.
On the contrary, Japan believes that the increase in economic interdependence is actually providing China with greater political tools to limit Japan's policy choices.Along this path, Japan continues to challenge China's bottom line in terms of territory and marine security.Japan frequently made hands and feet on the issue of Diaoyu Islands (Japanese is the island of Jiangang). First, the state -ownedization of the Diaoyu Islands was staged, and then the Diaoyu Islands address was changed from the proposal of the Diaoyu Islands to the Shougang Shougang in Kaiti, Dengye.Both the facts.
China's relationship between China and India: As soon as the United States proposed the Indo -Pacific strategy to transfer its focus from the Asia Pacific to the Indo -Pacific region, India believes that the Indian century has begun.In addition, the Sino -US trade conflict has intensified, and India tries to use the strategic pressure of the United States to China to increase its strategic advantages in China.In terms of military affairs, India's risk of upgrading armed conflicts provoked conflict with the Chinese border. The crisis such as the confrontation between the Donglang confrontation and the Lawan Valley conflict broke out, causing major casualties on both sides.
On June 18, 2017, the Tonglang confrontation between India and China, the relationship between the two countries began to deteriorate, and China -India relations trapped the lowest valley for 20 years.On the evening of June 15, 2020, at the Laowan Valley area of the China -India border, the Indian army violated the commitment and crossed the actual control line illegal activities again, deliberately launching a provocative attack, causing fierce physical conflicts between the two sides and causing casualties.This is the most serious border conflict that erupted by the two sides since 1962.
At present, China and India have conducted several rounds of military negotiations around the conflict of the Lalan Valley, and are committed to alleviating the tension.The fifth round of military talks has also ended.According to Indian media reports, in the fifth round of the Sino -Indian military talks, the Indian military clearly stated to China that he would not compromise on the issue of the integrity of Indian territory and asked China to withdraw the troops from several other friction points in the east of Ladakh as soon as possibleEssenceIt can be seen that India has no self -concession and keeping peace.
Economically, the Indian amendment Act prohibits China from direct foreign investment through Singapore and Hong Kong, strictly reviews China's customs clearance goods, and 327 sensitive sensitivity imported from China on smartphones, telecommunications equipment, solar panels, etc.Commodity, find a source of substitutes or produce in India.
In terms of culture, India decided to review the memorandum of understanding of the Confucius Institute, Confucius Classroom, and Inter -School Cooperation Memorandum of Understanding by the universities, and intended to furtherLimit Chinese activities in India, visa to Chinese businessmen, scholars, industry experts and rights and interests in India may face additional security review.
The sharp deterioration of strategic resistance in China and the United States, as well as strategic debugging and hedging of other major powers for national interests, may reshape international order and pattern.In the future, the United States' strategic competition in China will continue to be carried out in a competitive contact and curb way, while large countries such as Europe, Russia, India, and Japan will use international power adjustment to actively seek strategic autonomy and seek the status and power of the country themselves.Under this situation, for China, the United States' strategic pressure on China will decrease, but the surrounding, Asia and even international pressure will increase greatly.China must actively adjust its ideas under the new international structure to cope with the violent changes in the international situation.
The author is East China Normal University
Doctoral students of International Relations and Regional Development Research Institute
Researcher at Shanghai Decision Consulting Base
As the United States shifted from Russia to China, Russia's strategic pressure relieved, which led Russia to further reduce Russia's willingness to hold a group against China and Russia.At the same time, Russia will have the idea of using Sino -US or China -India differences to further expand its strategic influence.
