Early Jingqiang Xinyun
Yang Danxu
After the crown disease epidemic, the first eleventh long vacation was nearing the end. In the various dexterous Golden Week news these days, I was impressed by a tourist in Huangshan, Anhui.
In the video circulating on the Internet, tourists with all kinds of rainy flooding on the narrow mountain road rubbed their shoulders.A tourist suddenly shouted in the rain in the mountain climbing team without seeing his head. I regret it, I don't want to come out to play, I want to go home!
After half a year, I finally waited until the epidemic was stable, but when I came out of the heart, I met people from the crowd. It was really enough, but isn't this the normal state of the Golden Week?
At the moment when the global epidemic is raging and many countries are still struggling with epidemic prevention, such pictures make people feel like they are. After all, eight or nine months ago, the sudden epidemic was closed throughout China, and 1.4 billion people did not leave home.In April, my family and I went to the Great Wall to play, and I also enjoyed the almost empty charter treatment of the scenic area.
The situation of tourists is not only in Huangshan. The Eleventh holiday has been over the Mid -Autumn Festival because of the Chinese National Day holiday. It has eight days before and after.The epidemic prevention and control is normalized, the inter -provincial tourism is open, and the outbound tourism has turned to domestic tourism.
Judging from the actual reports from Chinese netizens in social media, attractions in various places have opened long -lost people.The Shanghai Bund Armed Police formed a zipper -like wall to control the flow of people. In the picture of drones from high altitude, the dense crowd filled the entire Bund; the 10,000 people near the night city of Datang, Xi'an gathered.You have to wear urine to the scene, because you can't squeeze it out at all.
Golden Week has always been a window for the living conditions of Chinese people and the barometer of the Chinese economy, which is even more so.The crowded railway stations, tourists burst tourist attractions, and the golden weekly spit on schedule are releaseing a simple and strong signal: the life of the Chinese is returning to normal.
The eleventh holiday is not the first small holiday after the normalization of the Chinese epidemic prevention and control.During the May Day holiday of this year, the Chinese people also took five days in a row. At that time, the outbreaks were preliminarily stable in various places, but the people with a lingering heart did not have much mood to travel.In the first four days of the May 1st holiday, domestic tourists received more than 100 million domestic tourists, and domestic tourism revenue was about 43.2 billion yuan (RMB, the same below, Sim of 8.6 billion yuan).
The transcript in the first half of the 11th Golden Week is significantly higher than the gold content.From October 1st to 4th, there were 425 million domestic tourists from all over China, and the national tourism revenue exceeded 312 billion yuan, which were more than four times and more than seven times that of the four days of May 1st this year.
Outside of tourism, there are also Jiebao reports in other fields.After missed the Spring Festival and summer stalls, the Chinese film market finally ushered in a new climax of movie viewing after the 11th holiday.According to Chinese media reports, four days before the long vacation, the total box office of the National Day file exceeded 2.5 billion yuan. The two domestic films and my hometown and Jiang Ziya exceeded 1 billion yuan on October 4.
However, behind the beautiful data, there is no worry. The normal state before the consumption and the return of the epidemic is actually a distance.Taking the eleven long holiday as an example, although the successful control of the epidemic allows people to rest assured, the boom of holiday consumption also allows the outside world to see the awakening market, but the number of travelers in the 11th and four days is still only 78.4%in the same period last year.Only 68.9%of the same period last year was restored, and the standard of retaliatory consumption could not be met.
Compared with industrial production and infrastructure investment, China's consumption is lagging behind under the blow of the epidemic.China's retail sales data will not be easy to record the first time this year.According to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, in the first eight months of this year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 23.8 trillion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 8.6%.
Teng Tai, dean of the Wanbo New Economic Research Institute, pointed out earlier that if the total retail sales of consumer goods are flat with 41 trillion yuan last year, the last four months must reach 17 trillion yuan, which is almost impossible to achieve.In other words, the retail sales of consumer consumer goods this year are likely to have the first negative growth in more than 40 years of reform and opening up.
This also shows that although China takes the lead in re -production and re -production, for the first time in major economies, it has gone out of decline and positive growth, and consumer demand is far from returning to the level of growth before the epidemic.The situation of lagging consumption is not a good thing for China, which is in the face of the United States' cutting pressure and eager to develop a new pattern of internal circulation.
Of course, the epidemic is a reason to explain the lag of consumption, but the impact of peeling the epidemic is caused by the long -term imbalance of the economic structure?In fact, before this epidemic, there were many discussions on consumer downgrade.How to better allocate income and grow middle -income groups, release the potential of Chinese domestic demand, and make the people become a long -term challenge for the people to get rich and buy. The epidemic is just to make the consumption more urgent.
From this point of view, although the data of the Eleven Golden Week has given the outside world more confidence in China's consumption recovery, to form the endogenous power required for internal circulation, the consumption only rebounds to the level before the epidemic.
