China Focus
The current high -risk situation of the Taiwan Strait is the result of the continuous evolution of political and military confrontation, and military is the continuation of politics.The Taiwan Strait Crisis has currently surpassed the scope of narrow geopolitics, and has quickly affected the level of development of Indo -Pacific patterns and even global politics.The Taiwan Strait, now it has made such a great movement, and it is estimated that the parties involved have unexpected parties.
For mainland China, the Taiwan issue has been described as a dispute between unity and division.For Taiwan, there are more stabilization with the mainland in the social system and values.The ancient Chinese training has both different ways and do not conspire; there are gentlemen and differences.Which is more suitable for the mainland and Taiwan?In fact, it is simple, and must be a gentleman, which can be different; otherwise, you can only do not conspire.
The traditional central empire thinking has regarded Taiwan as an island that is lonely overseas; and from the age of Zheng Chenggong, Taiwan has been in the vertical and horizontal chanting of international factors and strength. This is not just foreign participation and intervention, but also criticalIt is still to bring Taiwan directly into the baptism of civilization and the tide of the times.
So contemporary thinking is regarded as a member of the modern civilized society.This also means that the Taiwan issue is by no means a simple uniform and geographical nature, but it is related to the fate of people's hearts and the fate of civilization.Lack of this awareness and vision, the so -called Taiwan problem cannot be solved correctly, and may be solved by the Taiwan issue.
It is particularly worthy of emphasis here that since the world has entered modern times, the military has not continued its politics, that is, if politics cannot win, military means can hardly work.During the classical period, it was possible to rely on brute force, because at that time, the political civilization of human beings was not popular enough.In the modern world, what really wins military in the world must be politics first, otherwise it is difficult to continue to be effective even if they are temporarily working for the time being.This is a law of the times.
From a military perspective, in addition to the high -risk period of the Taiwan Strait, China currently has a border conflict with India in the southwest. There are disputes in the Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. There are sovereignty claims in the South China Sea and neighboring countries and there are disputes with sea power with the United States.However, if you look closely, the room for several other hot spots is relatively large. Only the situation in the Taiwan Strait area is highly sensitive. Once the outbreak is bursting, the controllable degree is low.
This is because once the Taiwan Strait conflicts, all parties have almost no other choices and retreats except for the victory and defeat.On the mainland, its unified will and preparations have been carried out for 70 years, and the war will be decisive, otherwise the overall consequences will be unimaginable.In Taiwan, there are only two choices in the backwaters or disarm, and there is no possibility of retreating into other regions or outer islands.Under the leadership of the Democratic Progressive Party government and mainstream public opinion, Taiwan chooses to resist or even counterattack.
Internationally, under the current climate and pattern, the original theory has now become actual expectations: in the name of maintaining the security of the Indo -Pacific region and the Alliance, once the Taiwan Strait starts, the power of the United States and Japan will definiteThe British fleet may block the Malacca Strait, cut off the China Maritime Petroleum Transport Channel, or take the initiative to attack in the South China Sea to respond to the situation of the Taiwan Strait.
In this way, the war of the Taiwan Strait has been upgraded from the Civil War on both sides of the strait to the war in many regional regions, and once the parties are deadlocked, there is also the possibility of upgrading from a regular war to a nuclear war.Then the ending of the Taiwan Strait War may be destroyed by each other.Is this still in line with the original intention and original intention of the war?It should not be in line, but all parties seem to be unable to accept the defeat, so there is no choice.
The conclusion is that in the current situation, once the Taiwan Strait is fully opened, the situation is likely to be derailed and out of control, resulting in the disaster consequences that do not use the subjective will of all parties.Therefore, the battle of the Taiwan Strait is not a question of who dares to start, but how to end the end.Simply resorting to force will not help, and it is unwise to fight off the coast of your country.
In summary, from the perspective of the comparison of cross -strait strength, Taiwan has not had the possibility of attacking the mainland to attack the mainland.In terms of diplomacy, Taiwan will not break through the existing political framework and track of the Republic of China, the so -called one table of the first China.
To this end, the Taiwan issue must first have a good and reasonable political solution.Moreover, not only Taiwan, the entire Indo -Pacific region must actively seek a political consultation and solution with a wide range of consensus foundations. This is the only feasible way out and hope.
The author is in the United States
International Cultural Strategy Research and Consultation Experts
