Author: Hu Ruizhou
Strategy is a decision choice. It is hoped that when dealing with changes, threats and challenges, we will take the most consistent with security benefits and obtain the expected results.Strategic vagueness based on the subjective situation, reserve elastic turning space; strategic fans are confused in the situation and direction, and often trapped in emptiness and danger.
Beijing's time against Taiwan is full of strategic blur.Taiwan announced its independence, adopting Taiwan independence operations, internal turmoil, hopelessness and hope, or foreign army in Taiwan. If these situations appear, Beijing will move against Taiwan.After careful analysis, it is found that these are almost all interpreted by Beijing; for example, modifying the syllabus is Taiwan independence?In addition to publicly announced independence, everything else has been said in Beijing.To make matters worse, it has not told you: Beijing may move against Taiwan due to internal and external issues.
The US strategy of the United States is blurred, which can be described as a year.If Beijing moves against Taiwan, the United States may not be sent to the United States, which allows the Green Camp to rulge the Taiwan independence without rushing; on the other hand, it also allows mainland leaders to not lead the light to attack Taiwan.The use of strategic fuzzy flexibility has played a certain stable role in the security of the Taiwan Strait.
However, the United States has not told you: This strategy is vaguely in line with the national interests.The United States has supported Taiwan to strengthen democratic camps, restrain Beijing's power, add anti -central partners, and enjoy business and military sales business.Once the war starts, the United States can still intervene depending on the situation.Assuming that Beijing ’s strange attacker, the decision -making is delayed and caught off guard, and it is almost impossible for the rescue of the Taiwanese soldiers to be unlikely.After several calculations in the United States, it may eventually find that movement is far better than hands -on.After all, the injury and consequences of a aircraft carrier being sunk were no less than that of the September 1st terrorist attack and the Pearl Harbor Incident at the same time.
Objectively and calmly thinking, China and the United States have a strategic blur, but the two sides of the strait cannot be strategically fascinated.
In Taipei, first of all, the geographical is near, medium and beautiful, and the relative strength gap between the two sides of the strait has expanded.Secondly, can the fighter aircraft take off the sixty -five or five sans to the main military aircraft each year (Japan intercepts the CCP's military aircraft last year)?Third, the military purchase has increased sharply in recent years. Why is the Taiwan Strait more unsafe?Fourth, can the hostile cross -strait have intensified, can it grow up?Fifth, is the fierce war in Taiwan?Is it possible to go to peace?Is the test method exhausted?
As far as Beijing, first, the machine ship disturbed the martial arts, can there be no gun to wipe the gun and get angry?Hope on both sides of the Taiwan Strait?Second, why did Beijing get rid of the rhythm of Sichuan?Third, can the PLA really defeat the U.S. military, just like the result of the eighteen troops of the U.S. forces?Fourth, do you not need to care about petroleum reserves, international sanctions, economic and trade and people's livelihood and national rejuvenation?What is the state after the war?Fifth, who is the winning or losing the Taiwan Strait War?
There are no troubles on both sides of the strait, and the language is the same but difficult to communicate. If you stay, you can take advantage of the opportunity to make the third party go up and down. Both sides are happy?In short, the cross -strait ruling team must have a strategic perspective, and leaders need to have a sense of quantitativeness and intelligence to resolve conflicts.
The author is the Deputy Director of the Taiwan Security Research Center
