Chen Hongbin: Can Lebanon rebuild smoothly?

Chen Hongbin

According to the Lebanon MTV TV report on September 26, Lebanon's waiting prime minister Middle Middot; Mustapha Adib announced his resignation.Adulty met with Middot, President Michel; One said: I am sorry for failing to set up a government, and I hope that people who have replaced me in this difficulty can succeed.

On August 4th, there was a large bombing accident. The bombing caused more than 190 deaths and more than 6,500 injuries, and those who were unknown for searching for more than a month.The citizens of 300,000 Barut are homeless, while the national population of Lebanon is less than 7 million.According to World Bank estimates.The loss caused by the explosion was about $ 4.6 billion, and last year's GDP was only $ 53.3 billion, which shows how heavy the losses caused by the Big Bang to the country.

What caused the explosion was 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate stored at the port of Beirut.This group of ammonium nitrate has been stored in the port of Berut for six years. During this time, Hong Kong officials issued a warning many times but were ignored.The explosion triggered a new round of anti -government protests in Lebanon and led the government to step down.On August 6, Macron visited Lebanon and became the first foreign leader to visit Lebanon after the Big Bang.

In the next 20 days, the Lebanon factions were deadlocked due to the choice of the Prime Minister.Until August 31, the Lebanese ambassador to Germany Mustafa Middot; Adult was supported by the multi -party faction of Parliament and was eventually appointed as the new Prime Minister to set up a new government.

A few hours later, French President Macron arrived again to Beirut and visited Lebanon for the second time after the Big Bang.When Macron arrived at Berut Airport, Lebanon should set up a new government as soon as possible to lead the country out of the current crisis.One week after the explosion, the Lebanon government resigned collectively to be responsible for the incident, and the country has also entered a political gap.

It is obviously very difficult to lead Lebanon to get out of the current dilemma.After the Big Bang, all parties pointed out the two sinks of the Lebanon crisis, one for decades of sectarian decentralization, and the other was staggered external forces.These two factors have led to the dispersion of Lebanon's power, the heavy corruption, and the low efficiency of the government's governance, and to some extent, which increased the social and economic crisis of the country to some extent.

As a result, the public hopes to completely reform politics under the crisis.But at present, Adult and the former Prime Minister Diab, who just resigned, are very similar. Both of them came to power in the crisis and were technical bureaucrats.It will be very difficult to achieve goals.

In fact, Macron's intervention is critical in the appointment of the new Prime Minister.Earlier, Macron and Lebanon leaders had repeatedly communicated, asking them to reach an agreement on the candidates for the new Prime Minister as soon as possible.

Two days after the explosion, Macron came to Berut.In addition to inspecting the explosion scene, he also held a series of meetings with Lebanese leaders.At that time, Macron repeatedly called on Lebanon to carry out political reform, saying that Lebanon was in multiple crises, and only reform could save the country.If political reform cannot be promoted, Lebanon will not be able to accept international assistance.

Lebanon's crisis has a long history.Before the Big Bang, Lebanon was in a deep economic and political crisis. The currency depreciated (the Lebanon pound is currently 80%compared to October last year), the inflation and the unemployment rate remains high.Dilemma; the Lebanon government and the International Monetary Fund have not made any progress on providing assistance.

The raging of the coronary virus epidemic has worsened the snow in Lebanon, facing the biggest crisis after the civil war.The number of crown diseases across the country in early August was only 5,000, and as of September 4, it had increased to 14,000.Due to the Big Bang, many hospitals were blown up and could not accept and diagnose patients at all.

In Lebanon, which was once full of fire, the food supply consumed by residents mainly relied on imports.According to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission of West Asia, half of the country's residents will not be able to obtain food before the end of the year, and life will be unsustainable.

After the Berurt Big Bang, the international community has assisted, and Macron also called on the international community to help Lebanon, saying that if there is no international community, the country may fall into the civil war again.It is reported that a conference to support Lebanon's reconstruction hosted by the United Nations is expected to be held in Paris in October.

When visiting Lebanon again, Macron will promote the implementation of reforms in the Lebanon government, cracking down on corruption and financial waste.This is also a prerequisite for financial support for the international community.

On August 31, Macron also posted on Arabic on social media, saying that he would visit Lebanon again as about about him, and he would create necessary conditions for the reconstruction and stability of Lebanon with Richard.

After the Big Bang Bang Bang, many countries and international organizations stated that they would help Lebanon, but France was the country that was most concerned about the reconstruction and stability of Lebanon.

In fact, Lebanon and France have long -term close allies.After the First World War, Lebanon was occupied by the coalition forces and was taken over by the French army.On September 1, 1920, France merged Syria and Lebanon into Greater Lebanon.Until 1943, Lebanon got rid of the French appointment rule and announced its independence and established the Lebanon Republic.

During the French rule, Lebanon became a trading center, and the capital Beirut was known as the Middle East Paris, and the living standards of the people have been significantly improved.But in 1975, a 15 -year civil war broke out in Lebanon, and the war seriously damaged the Lebanon economy.After the civil war, France continued to help Lebanon, including increasing direct investment.At present, nearly 150,000 Lebanese people live in France, and many people have dual nationality in Lebanon and France. Both sides have difficulty associations.

According to the British Express, after the Big Bang, tens of thousands of people jointly petitioned, calling on France to take over Lebanon again in the future.In the absence of war creative trauma, such a scale of explosion occurred, Lebanon's future trend is undoubtedly noticeable.

From the perspective of Lebanon, as a small Middle East, it needs to seek balance between big powers to develop itself.Especially in the context of the poor domestic economic situation, it is difficult for Lebanon to get out of the predicament by relying on its own strength alone, so it can only seek the help of large external powers to seek vitality for development.

The political, social, and economic crisis in Lebanon is very deep. The Lebanese people regard France as the savior, but France may also be inadequate and insufficient.The crisis of Lebanon directly related to the entire political structure of the country and the decentralization of sectarian power that has been implemented since the founding of the country. This is not what France can be changed.In addition, France and the European Union themselves are facing many problems, and they have insufficient minds on the Middle East.

On September 22, an explosion accident occurred in the Inecana area of Lebanon. The explosion was huge and strong.According to Reuters, the explosion occurred in an arsenal of the Allah, and the explosion was caused by technical failure.The TV screen shows that the explosion causes some surrounding buildings and vehicles to be damaged.Lebanon media reports are different for whether the explosion causes casualties or specific casualties.

Such a major bombing accident occurred in such a series, which not only seriously threatened the lives and property security of Lebanon's citizens. The people had no sense of security at all. At the same time, it further highlighted the serious lack of turmoil that the country fell into the governance after the long -term war.

Can Lebanon rebuild smoothly?I am afraid that this is not a wishful thinking.All sects and international communities in Lebanon must effectively form a joint force, and the Lebanon government must also implement effective governance to completely end a plate of scattered sand, otherwise the prospect of its rebuilding is not optimistic.

The author is a retired scholar in Shanghai, China

After the Berut Big Bang, the international community has assisted, and Macron also called on the international community to help Lebanon, saying that without the international community to help the country may fall into the civil war again.It is reported that a conference to support Lebanon's reconstruction hosted by the United Nations is expected to be held in Paris in October.