Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Economic Daily News
Mainland China ’s domestic production (GDP) declined by 6.8%from the first quarter, and rebounded sharply to 3.2%in the second quarter, and then it seems that the situation of the rapid rebound from the low point of the Chinese economy from low points is indeed excellent.Global.
The reason why this manifestation, the rapid control of the epidemic, and the government's launch of a strong financial and currency easing policy is an important factor.For example, the re -production and re -production drive the industrial production and manufacturing procurement manager index, the non -manufacturing business activity index index takes the lead in rebounding, government infrastructure expenditure provides fixed asset investment support forces, and the loose currency environment allows the real estate industry to rise against the trend.The quantity is good, and the Chinese economic growth performance is supported in the second quarter.
The epidemic also enabled China to have a little breathing space under the US -China trade war.Because the epidemic has greatly affected the global transportation, terminal demand and cash flow, and allowing multinational companies to be more concerned about the control of cost, after comprehensive consideration of China's existing labor technology, cost and infrastructure status, a significant slowdown will be slowly slowed.The supply chain moved out of China.Furthermore, from the RMB substantial valid exchange rate index (REER) announced by the International Clearance Bank, it can be found that from July 6, 2018, the United States imposed tariffs on China for the first time to the end of August this year, and the Chinese REER dropped from 124.53 points to 122.77 points.Even though the US -China trade war has gone through several rounds of tariffs, the price competitiveness of China's export products is still there, and China is a major producer of epidemic prevention and medical products in China, making its exports rise against the trend.
However, it is too early to think that the Chinese economy has gone out of the haze of the epidemic. There are still many hidden problems behind the economic growth. The most significant thing is that the gap between the rich and the poor has expanded and the consumption expenditure is absent.
According to the data, the annual growth rate of retail sales from March to August this year was -5.2%, which still showed a significant decline, showing that the recovery speed of consumption surface was far less dazzling as industrial production related data.If the details of consumer goods are explored, the most consumer consumption consumption capacity of the general public is reduced, and the consumption kinetic energy of the consumer consumption is reduced. Cumulative catering consumption still shows a huge recession -19.6%, and clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles also declined -11.1%.However, luxury consumption has recovered rapidly and fell below all sectors of glasses.In the second quarter of this year, the fashion brand Louis Middot; Voide Group (LVMH) revenue in China increased by more than 65%. PRADA's annual growth rate in China in June this year also rose by more than 50%.More than 60%.
The uneven consumption recovery is mainly due to the further expansion of the income gap.According to the data, although the disposable income of China in the second quarter returned to a positive growth of 4.5%, the monthly income of migrant workers fell by 6.7%. In additionIn the second quarter, revenue has returned to positive growth, and the remaining income class has continued to decline, especially for those with an annual income of less than 50,000 yuan.At the same time, from the perspective of expenditure, in 2019, Chinese folk consumption accounted for 39.12%of GDP, and the proportion was the highest among the three carriages of consumption, investment and exports.Therefore, the downturn of the general public consumption will not be conducive to long -term economic growth.
Further analysis of the causes of uneven consumption in China: 1. White -collar workers with higher income are more flexible. After the outbreak of the epidemic, most of them can work through long distances, but the types of employees of the general retail industry are as general retail industry employees.Low -income workers have a large number of unemployment at the peak of the epidemic, and they are not easy to find jobs under the unreasonable consumption surface.The increase in disposable income is large; 3. The economic incentive plan launched by China is focusing on fixed investment and infrastructure, rather than generally issued bailout cash like other countries.Increaser.
It can be seen that the impact of the epidemic on China's consumption surface is relatively more than that of government expenditure and credit support policies, which has a very unfavorable impact on the individual related individuals of the consumer side, which has led to the further expansion of the gap between the rich and the poor.It is worth noting that the phenomenon of the gap between the rich and the poor in the post -epidemic era will not only occur in China. If other countries are not properly handled, it will inevitably face the uneven problems caused by income and consumption.As G.GoPinath, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, said: We have not gone out of the crisis, and policy makers should maintain alertness and must adjust the policy with the situation.
