Yu Zeyuan: The situation in the Taiwan Strait is on the way to war?

Early

Ji Yan Chunqiu

Starting from September 18, the Chinese PLA fighter aircraft across the Taiwan Strait midline for three consecutive days.For a while, the war was covered over the sea.

Regarding the frequent cross -border of the PLA fighter, Taiwan's response was very cautious. Except for the military to drive away from the military, there was no tough countermeasures.

Not only that, in the face of unprecedented military operations in the mainland, the Taiwan military further softened.The Taiwan United Daily reported yesterday that in order to highlight the hobbies, the Taiwan military did not open the first shot between the two sides of the strait.Only with obvious hostile behavior to fire.

The caution in Taiwan has reduced the risk of wipe the guns on both sides to a certain extent.But this also means that the PLA fighter and warships crossing the Taiwan Strait will become a normal state.

The mainland has recently broken the tacit understanding of the Taiwan Strait for decades, and frequently breaks through the Taiwan Strait's midline with the attitude of the World Studies, indicating that the mainland no longer acknowledges that the Taiwan Strait midline is the restricted area on both sides of the strait.In the future, as long as the mainland thinks it is necessary, it can send ships to approach Taiwan to curb Taiwan independence and prevent Taiwan from the development of the official relationship between the establishment of diplomatic relations between Taiwan and the mainland.

The mid -line of the Taiwan Strait no longer has boundary functions. This is a new major change in cross -strait relations. It is also an inevitable result of Taiwan's foreign relations, especially the official relationship between Taiwan and the United States, and the official relations of Taiwan.From the perspective of the mainland, the official official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan are the new breakthroughs of Taiwan independence.The mainland cannot tolerate.

For more than a month, the United States has sent high -level officials to visit Taiwan.Especially from September 17th to 19th, US Secretary of State Craggy visited Taiwan.This is the current official official of the US State Department since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 1979.

Different from the US Minister of Health in early August, Azar's visit to Taiwan, Claric's visit to Taiwan has more obvious political meanings, marking that the United States tries to change the policy of a China China China policy that has long persistence not to carry out political exchanges with Taiwan for a long time.With the comprehensive degradation of Sino -US relations, members of the US Congress even suggested that the United States and Taiwan establish diplomatic relations.

Although the possibility of breaking diplomatic relations with China and building diplomatic relations with China at present, the violent turbulence of Sino -US relations in the past two years has indeed proved one thing: Sino -US relations are not the worst, only worse.

However, the situation in China and the United States has led to tight situations in the Taiwan Strait, and even the clouds are densely clouded, which is not a good thing for China and the United States and the entire Asia -Pacific region.Especially for Taiwan, once a war broke out, no matter how the United States supports Taiwan, Taiwan's existing political pattern, economic level, and social life will undergo tremendous changes.It can be said that if Taiwan embarks on the way of war, Taiwan will be the biggest losers.

Seth Cropsey, director of the Hudson Institute of Hudson Institute, wrote an analysis in the Congress on the 17th that the US election this year may be caught in the party, which is very dangerous for Taiwan.He believes that this week on November 3 may be the best time to attack Taiwan.

But the martial arts of Taiwan is obviously not the recent options of the mainland.Dynamic martial arts not only mean huge casualties, international pressure, resource investment, and various difficult consequences, it will also disrupt the long -term development planning of the high -level mainland, which seriously affects the normal economic and social order of the mainland.The voices of martial arts Taiwan in the mainland are increasing, but the consequences of the war are not prepared for the mainland.

In fact, the consequences of the three parties of China and the United States on the Taiwan Strait are very afraid, but no one wants or cannot show weakness.

After years of administration of the Democratic Progressive Party, Taiwan has gone further and further on the road to de -China. It is not possible to turn back. It is difficult to find a political foundation like the 1992 consensus on both sides of the strait.While the two sides of the strait are getting away, the risk of war is also accumulated.

There is no room for compromise on the issue of Taiwan independence.The United States played Taiwan to pressure China, but the Taiwan Strait really wants to reach the point of war, and the United States will also face huge challenges: if you do not directly send troops, Taiwan will be unified by the mainland;It is not controlled by the United States.

However, whether the Taiwan Strait can avoid war, the United States is indeed a key factor.If the United States does not continue to break through the bottom line of the first China policy and conduct higher -level political interaction with Taiwan, the mainland will not involve cross -strait relations involved too much energy.After all, the biggest goal of the mainland this year is to build a well -off society in an all -round way.

Although the mainland and Taiwan are unwilling to start the war, both sides cannot consider the problem from the perspective of the other party, and both are intended to move towards the direction of war.If this paradoxical and dangerous situation continues to lose control, all parties will be losers.