Cao Xin: After Azar's visit to Taiwan, the future of Taiwan will definitely become a major issue in the game and conflict between China and the United States.But saying to martial arts, that's not yet.

Last week, international public opinion in Britain, the United States, Singapore and other countries generally focused on the major interaction between the United States and Taiwan recently, and the response of China.Officials and Deputy Secretary of State Krachi visited Taiwan; the Trump administration was preparing to approve major military sales of Taiwan; before Clasi arrived in Taiwan, the Chinese military announced that it would conduct military exercises in the related waters of the East China Sea on September 17.

Since the US Minister of Health Azar has visited Taiwan last month, what is the motivation to be keen on Taiwan affairs in the United States in a short time?It can be said that this judgment involves war and peace to a large extent, and according to the author's observation, the future of Taiwan will definitely become a major issue in the game and conflict between China and the United States, but it is not too far.

Why is the Taiwan question lively?

Judging from the information revealed by Trump's recent series of behaviors, Taiwan's interests to Trump clearly showed that the use of Taiwan as Chinese weaknesses can be used as a politicization.A means of pressureing China; through military sales of Taiwan, to obtain commercial interests; in the case of determination and Chinese economic cutting, cooperate with Taiwan's industrial chain.Moreover, if Trump is finally re -elected this year, it is difficult for Taiwan to think that it is not lively.

At present, only the minister and deputy ministerial official's visit to Taiwan is not of much significance to Trump's election, because the specifications are not enough to disrupt the public opinion that is not good for Trump's election, unless Pompeo is as high as Pompeo's high ones.Specifications, or a small maritime conflict in the Taiwan Strait, if the movement below Trump follows this trend, this may help Trump's re -election.

In terms of the above -mentioned US political pressure on China, first of all, the level of officials visited Taiwan in the United States is getting higher and higher, more and more open and high -profile.American officials who visited Taiwan in August were US Minister of Health, and last week's visit was Deputy Secretary of State of the United States, which made the nature different: If the global epidemic situation can be used to use the reasons of exchange of hygiene and epidemic prevention information and experience as the reasons for it.If the Minister of Health visits Taiwan as an excuse, the Secretary of State is now completely political officials, or the highest -level US diplomats visited Taiwan since the United States.Almost all departments were responsible for officials and discussions with the US Deputy Secretary of State this time.All of the above, under the hype of the media, undoubtedly put a lot of pressure on China.

Of course, some foreign media believe that the US Deputy Secretary of State's visit to Taiwan this time has not been implied by the media and Taiwanese officials.Taiwanese enterprise representatives and Taiwanese economic officials in specialized industries eventually held closed -door meetings, and the relevant work was done.

As for the United States' profit on sales of Taiwan, according to CNN reports, sources from the U.S. Congress and government departments revealed that Trump will approve seven major weapon systems including drones, including drones and related related weapons, including drones and related related relatedThe amount of supporting equipment is $ 600 million.

According to reports, a spokesman for the State Council said: As far as policies are concerned, we will not comment or confirm the proposed military sales before formal notification.

The most important thing is that it is certain that for Trump, who is keen to curb Chinese and American products, the official visit to Taiwan and the sale of arms cannot be the last and last list, but will become the norm.

It is particularly worthy of the cooperation of the Meitai Industry Chain.The US Deputy Secretary of State Caratac, the US Deputy Secretary of State in Taiwan, is in charge of economic growth, energy and environment. According to his visit to Taiwan, Taiwan held an official dialogue on the US and Taiwan economic officials on the morning of September 18.Important cadres such as the deputy director of the Taiwan Executive Yuan, the Minister of Economic and Economic, Foreign Minister, Minister of Finance, and Chairman of the Trade Association attended the meeting. In addition, all the financial and economic departments were sent officials to participate.The morning dialogue is mainly to cooperate in the industrial supply chain, including technology, and communicate in the direction of the investment review law.At noon, the United States banned the important supply chain industry in Taiwan and the United States, mainly representatives of semiconductors, Netcom, technology industries, and industrial and commercial groups.

Obviously, in the context of the decoupling of the China -US economy, the United States has begun to pay more attention to Taiwan's industrial chain, and Taiwan also attaches more importance to the United States.This economic mutual demand cannot be overwhelmed.

China and the United States are difficult for Taiwan to start war

But because of the start of the US -Taiwan affairs, China and the United States have little possibility.

Judging from the situation since this year, especially since August, Trump ’s approach to Taiwan’ s issue is to only do it. It has been strategically restrained in the operation of diplomacy, and even in operation.The reason for the start of war is insufficient.

So far, Taiwan is not an independent sovereign country or a UN member country in international law; the United States and Taiwan have not established diplomatic relations; Taiwan has not announced independence.Under these premise, the current behavior of the United States and Taiwan is difficult to define the category of China's anti -division law.

At the same time, Taiwan compatriots and compatriots in mainland China are the same Chinese nation. After the unified force, sequelae will exist for a long time, becoming a long -term uneasy factor in China.

Finally, without the above -mentioned obvious violations of China's anti -division law, China will unify Taiwan to face a strong rebound in the United Nations and the international community. In the context of economic and finance with the world, if the international community is jointly integrated with the world.The situation will be much more serious than the possible decoupling between China and the United States today.

However, if the behavior between Taiwan or Taiwan and the United States obviously spans the category of China's anti -division method, and leads to China's force to recover Taiwan, the United States will be difficult to help force, because it will be difficult to pass by the United States, and it will be difficult for Congress to support it.The American allies have not assisted in justified reasons.

In addition, in China's offshore, the victory of the U.S. military may not be very grasped.

Therefore, if President Trump is successful, the US -Taiwan relations will continue to interact without establishing diplomatic relations in the United States and Taiwan, and Taiwan will not declare independence, and may become a normal state. At the same timeEffect, this is the real problem.But at the same time, if the Bayeng campaign is successful, the rapid evolution of the Taiwan issue will be expected to ease. In this way, the possibility of China and the United States will be even less likely to start war in Taiwan.

(Note: The author is Secretary -General of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Chahar Society and a researcher at the Peninsula Peace Research Center. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.