On the issue of the South China Sea, the course of the Sino -US game is similar to the game on the Taiwan issue. The two sides are clear on the bottom line and the traditional strategies of the goal of fuzzy.The strategic situation is from competition to confrontation.
In the backward economic and military strength, the South China Sea has not been able to develop and use its economic and military values in China for a long time. This is in sharp contrast to the economic development of the mainland in Taiwan's long -term contributions and talents.One side illustrates why the South China Sea issue is not as important as the Taiwan issue.
But similar to the Taiwan issue, under the strategy of economic development, Beijing also does not want to affect China's economic development in China.Twelve words processing.The sovereignty belongs to me as a clear bottom line in China, but the three policies in the subsequent require the cooperation of other voices. Therefore, when the other party does not cooperate and even actively causes controversy, how should China respond and become very vague.
Especially when the controversy continues, whether the sovereignty is really China, it has gradually become a question internationally.Therefore, because the situation of the South China Sea cannot be dominated, there are contradictions between these four policies.For example, if China ’s maintenance sovereignty has caused disputes in other voices and thus hindering joint development, should China stop rights protection in order to set aside disputes and develop together?In fact, the goals developed with other voices of the country have not been achieved for a long time.
Beijing's vague stance on the South China Sea issue also includes the latitude and longitude of the Nine -stage Line (U -shaped line), and it has not explained what the meaning of the nine -segment line is.If it is the Haijiang (border) line, all the sea and islands and reefs in the nine section line belong to the Chinese territory.However, this does not seem to be in line with Beijing's claims of sovereignty's sovereignty, because Beijing only advocates sovereignty over the islands in the nine -segment line and its nearby waters, and has historical rights to all sea areas in the nine sections.
The meaning of international rights to historic rights has increased the vagueness of China.Some Beijing officials have stated that it is not clear that the position of the nine -segment line is to avoid intensifying the contradiction with other Southeast Asian countries, which shows that the ambiguity of the nine -segment line is indeed intended to do it.
After the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, as the construction of marine power has been included in China's development strategy, diplomatic emphasis is emphasized, and the military defense is promoted to defend the security of marine rights and strategic channels.The strategic goals for the South China Sea are gradually clear.To this end, the tactics are more actively attacked: some islands and reefs reclaimed land to build land, build various civilian and military infrastructure; integrate marine rights protection agencies, strengthen the ability of South China Sea, and promote it.The dual -track model of Asian'an to solve the dispute and maintain the stability of the South China Sea; at the expense of the danger of wiping the gun with the US military aircraft, the risk of getting angry was disturbed, the free sailing of the other party was driven.
From the perspective of Beijing, the low -key policy of dealing with the South China Sea issue before not only did not achieve the purpose of shelving controversy and jointly developing, but instead allowed other scholarships to use the country to take advantage of it, violating China's rights and interests in the South China Sea, and even the first to fill in filling in the first filling in the South China Sea.Sea Island, build military facilities.
Especially since the Obama administration has promoted the Asia -Pacific rebalancing strategy, it has encouraged and united other scholarships to harm China's rights and interests in the South China Sea, and gradually became the biggest pressure on China on the South China Sea issue.Therefore, China was forced to kill to try to change the long -term passive situation.
The United States' checks and balance strategy in the South China Sea
Because the United States is not a country in the South China Sea, it has been pursuing non -selection policies on the South China Sea issue for a long time. It is just called to resolve various disputes through legal means such as international arbitration.With the rapid rise of China and Asia in the past 30 years, the Asia -Pacific region has gradually become the new strategic focus of the United States.Although China has not yet challenged the US dominant position in the world, its economic influence in Asia has become increasingly greater, and it has created a favorable condition for China to become regional hegemon.
About 10 years ago, the Obama administration began to return to Asia to promote the Asia -Pacific rebalancing strategy. It is essentially to balance China's influence in Asia -Pacific and maintain the United States' dominant position in Asia -Pacific.By establishing closer political, economic, and military relations with other voices, the United States tries to balance China in the South China Sea.
However, the Obama administration is not very clear in the strategy of China ’s South China’ s China Sea system, and it emphasizes the role of international arbitration and international law in terms of means. Although it is announced that the US Navy ’s deployment will be tilted to the Asia -Pacific, in factWith less, it belongs to low intensity balances based on diplomatic and public opinion.In fact, the Obama administration failed to successfully check and balance China on the South China Sea issue, because the previous series of islands and rights protection of China in the South China Sea mentioned in the South China Sea began in the Obama period, and they were progressing smoothly.Failure to balance China on the South China Sea issue, even the former Obama administration's former officials had to admit it.
After Trump came to power, with the upgrading of the Sino -US strategic competition to a strategic confrontation, the South China Sea became one of the main battlefields of Sino -US confrontation.The Trump administration's goal on the South China Sea issue is more clear, to ensure that the United States' freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, as well as the dominant position of the naval and air forces in the Western Pacific.
In other words, the United States must protect its own warships and military planes, and can enter the exclusive economic zone of any country, or even the sea to reach the right to survive the reconnaissance.And once a war occurs in the South China Sea, his navy and air force can defeat the opponent with an overwhelming advantage.The United States believes that China reclaims islands and build military facilities in the South China Sea has greatly threatened its two strategic goals.
Just as the Trump administration has continued to increase the pressure on China in the fields of economy, trade, technology, Hong Kong and Taiwan, it is far more actively and tougher than the Obama administration on the South China Sea issue.
In terms of public opinion, the United States is portraying China as a secret force that secretly attempts to subvert the order of the freedom world.Participating, not recognizing, and not implementing the arbitration of the International Arbitration Tribunal on the South China Sea has become an important guilty of the United States to criticize China, so that not long ago, the U.S. government announced that all the rights statements on the South China Sea resources were announced by the result of the arbitration of the US government.Illegal, and regarding China's rights protection in the South China Sea as a manifestation of power, as axioms.
In diplomacy, on the one hand, it strengthens relations with Southeast Asian countries, supports other scholarship countries against China on the South China Sea issue. On the other hand, all allies such as Japan and Australia are invited to intervene in the South China Sea issue.
Different from the Obama period, the Trump administration has greatly increased its military components on the South China Sea issue. Like free navigation in the Obama period occasionally, according to public information statistics, in 2018, the United States implemented in the South China Sea in 2018 in the South China SeaFive times, eight times in 2019, two months each, two times each, seven times in the first eight months of 2020.In order to increase the unpredictability of the action, in April 2020, once a day once a day for two consecutive days, and within a week of June 2020, two double aircraft carrier battle group exercises were performed. The show to the world did not affect the U.S. Air Force in the South.The strength of the Chinese Sea.
The target is clear, the bottom line rises, the conflict is normal
On the whole, both in the Taiwan issue or the South China Sea issue, both China and the United States are upgrading the traditional bottom line and the target blur strategy.Both countries have gradually clarified the strategic goals, and in order to cooperate with the clear strategic goals, they improve their bottom lines.
The unified goal of China on the Taiwan issue is becoming clearer, so the bottom line has gradually changed from the previous anti -independence to promoting, that is, as long as the Taiwan side has used anti -independence, it can maintain a good cooperative relationship with the mainland, but in the futureIn order to promote the support of the mainland in order to get support from all aspects of the mainland.However, because of Tsai Ing -wen's onto and re -election, and the strong support for the United States for Taiwan, the mainland is promotedAfter the level, the strategy encountered setbacks for the time being.
The goal of the United States on the Taiwan issue was to maintain the peace of Taiwan, but in the situation of the Sino -US strategy confrontation, Taiwan became an exit of the United States to vent the anti -China emotions and the important partners in the Chinese strategy. Therefore, the bottom line on the Taiwan issue also corresponds to it.Improving to comprehensively improve the United States and Taiwan relations, and gradually challenge China's principles of China.
On the issue of the South China Sea, China's goal is also clearer, that is, by enhancing the control of the South China Sea, the South China Sea becomes the continuous growth of China's economy and military strength, the construction of a marine powerThe game of the South China Sea has won an important part of the Sino -US strategy confrontation, and shows the world's rise to the world that is irresistible.
For this reason, China has always emphasized that although it is necessary to coordinate the maintenance of sovereignty and the stability of the surrounding surroundings, the importance of defending rights in recent years has exceeded stability and has made great progress.Facing the rise of China that the United States is incredible, the strategic goals on the China Sea issue have never been as clear as it is now: even if the influence on this region will be lost to China, it will still guarantee that the United States will be military in military affairs.Can dominate the Western Pacific.
To this end, the bottom line of the United States on the South China Sea has also increased accordingly, which clearly denies that China's rights and interests in the South China Sea have been regarded as illegal protection acts in the South China Sea and raised countermeasures in targetedly.
Between China and the United States, it can be used for a long time on the issue of Taiwan and the South China Sea for a long time. To a large extent, because the two sides intend to blur their strategic goals on these two issues, and maintain the bottom line with relatively small pressure on the other party.Now the strategic goals of the two sides are clearer, and the bottom line has risen accordingly, resulting in greater pressure on the other party, and confrontation has become normal.
As long as the current strategic confrontation situation continues to upgrade, the conflict between China and the United States on the issues of Taiwan and the China Sea will be further upgraded.The South China Sea issue may lead to small -scale military friction between China and the United States, and once the Taiwan Strait has war, it will be a large -scale conflict.
Therefore, if the two parties consider the cost of conflict, the South China Naval military conflict is more likely to occur because the cost is relatively small.To prevent the upgrading of the new cold war between China and the United States in Taiwan and the South China Sea issue, it is a major and urgent issue in China and the United States' strategic confrontation.If the two sides can return to the strategic blur, it will be greatly conducive to the improvement of the situation.
The author is a researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of Singapore
The article only represents the author's personal point of view
Between China and the United States, it can be used for a long time on the issue of Taiwan and the South China Sea for a long time. To a large extent, because the two parties intentionally blurred their strategic goals on these two issues and maintained the bottom line with less pressure on the other party.Now the strategic goals of the two sides are clearer, and the bottom line has increased accordingly, which has caused greater pressure on the other party, so the conflict has become the norm.
