Yang Yongming: The Taiwan Strait or Chengshen and the United States confront thermogen

Author: Yang Yongming

The U.S. State Department's Second Qing Krachi came to Taiwan to visit, originally thought that the opening of the U.S. pigs could be exchanged for economic and trade negotiations, but the State Department said that Krachi did not come to host Taiwan -US economic dialogue; the Tsai government had to emphasize that it was the highest -level official of the State Council's visit to Taiwan and pointed out that the US TaiwanOfficials held a preliminary dialogue.

In this regard, when the mainland announced that Clarch visited Taiwan, the actual combat practice in the Taiwan Strait was a necessary action aimed at the Taiwan Strait situation, that is, a warning of the changes in Taiwan -US relations.On the 18th, the 19th PLA fighter aircraft flew over the central line and entered the Southwest Airship respectively.

At the same time, the US media reported that the Trump administration decided to sell seven more military weapons to Taiwan, saying that Taiwan was difficult to attack like hedgehogs, but it also had to be equipped with Taiwan fortress and became the forefront of Sino -US confrontation.

For a while, the three parties of the United States, China and Taiwan appeared strategic squeezing, and especially when Sino -US relations entered a strategic confrontation, Taiwan was easily misjudgment or accidental danger.

The Tsai government's operation on the issue of the American pig believes that the opening of the US pigs can be exchanged for the Taiwan -US economic and trade agreement, or at least the Taiwan -US economic dialogue, but it is difficult to do it.There are two key, one is the institution, and the other is the time point.

First of all, no Taiwan -US economic dialogue should be blocked by the Trade Negotiation Representative (USTR), because foreign economic and trade negotiations and dialogues belong to USTR permissions, not the State Council.It is impossible to make the State Council from setting up a stove from USTR.Secondly, the time in the time of opening the American pig, the Tsai government obviously bet on Trump's re -election, rather than looking forward to the rapidly conducting economic and trade agreement negotiation or economic dialogue.Open American beef pork two months ago in the presidential election, which is a gift for Trump to assist Trump's merit in agriculture.

In short, the Tsai government lacks the independent strategic outlook of autonomy. With Taiwan's interests as the core, it is in China and the United States confrontation, regional integration and cross -strait relations.In response to external challenges.

However, Taiwan -US relations have been completely tilted, and naturally let the Trump administration be required. In the past two years, the Tingtai Act and continuous dispatch of the top officials have been visited to Taiwan. In fact, there are also Taiwan system.Taiwan has become the first front line and pioneering fortress for Sino -US confrontation. The PLA frequent military exercises are both military intimidation and political warning.

Exploring military conflicts or so -called starting time on cross -strait on both sides of the strait. Personally, when any of the following two situations occur, military events may occur: 1. When Taiwan or the United States crosses the red line (or red zone); 2. China or the United States domestic domestic domestic domesticPressure or political demand is higher than peace benefits.

Among them, the second item refers to the internal factors of mainland China or the United States. For example, in the United States, because of domestic elections, the Chinese side is adopted to intervene in the Taiwan Strait's military or political actions, and it is identified by China as a red line.This is incredible in the past and does not meet the traditional Asian strategic interests of the United States.However, from the Trump administration's anti -Chinese policy and operation on Taiwan, many observers on both sides of the strait and international observers are worried that they may happen.

In short, the Cai government's anti -China cross -strait policy makes the Taiwan economy unable to cross the Taiwan Strait and enter Asia.Unrest, the Taiwan Strait is more likely to become a China -US anti -theater!

The author is the former Deputy Secretary -General of Taiwan Guoan Society