Author: Wang Jiahao
Source: Hong Kong 01
The US presidential election is approaching, and Russia has been accused of launching a network attack in an attempt to interfere with the US elections.In addition to the former US intelligence officer revealed the White House's request to dilute the Russian intervention election, Microsoft also pointed out that Russia and Chinese hackers have monitored the two -party camps.The American intelligence community revealed that Moscow is inclined to support Trump's re -election, while Beijing is intended to win the election.
Although the outside world interpreted Russia to support Trump, US -Russian relations fell into a trough during his tenure.Trump has expressed his admiration for Putin's strong man and banning China as the number one enemy of the United States. It also indirectly weakened unity across the Atlantic Alliance.However, the Trump administration has maintained tough Russian policies. It has adopted a series of sanctions on Russia due to issues such as Ukraine, Syria, intervention in the United States elections, and human rights.In addition, Trump also unilaterally withdrawn from the INF TREATY and Open Skies Treaty, and temporarily unintentionally continued to continue the new strategic weapon Treaty (New Start) to damage global strategic stability.Trump advocates holding a summit with Putin, but its results are not as expected, and Russian -US relations have always lacked actual breakthroughs.
Even though Biden's anti -Russian stance is clear, Russia may not resist Democrats elected president.When Biden became the president of the United States, he would undoubtedly consolidate the unity of the European Union and NATO and re -promoted the value of freedom of democracy in the United States, such as strengthening diplomatic support for Ukraine, and more concerned about Russia's domestic human rights conditions, including Chechen's anti -homosexual sports.However, Biden will adopt a constructive attitude to handle nuclear arms control and is willing to discuss with Russia to extend the deadline for the new reduction of strategic weapons.Biden also promised to change the Iranian policy and is expected to re -negotiate the Iranian nuclear agreement.
In the final analysis, Russia may not have the favorite US presidential candidates, because the President's personal impact on foreign policy has limited influence, and US -Russian relations are more subject to structural factors.Regardless of Trump or Biden as the next US president, US -Russian relations may not have signs of improvement in the short term.If the Kremlin is absent from candidates, Russia's intervention in the US presidential election may only make political differentiation and destroy social stability.
Russia has been accused of assisting Bernie Sanders and Trump's campaign. The biggest common point of the two is an anti -construction image.Russia's Russian gathered black materials for Biden team may be designed to expose Biden's hypocrisy and make the masses lose confidence in the elite of the system.Four years ago, Russian hackers leaked Hillary team emails to reveal that the Democratic Party's unfair treatment of Sanders was ink.
On the other hand, assuming Trump's successful re -election, his political recognition will be questioned.It even continued to cover the stigma of Putin.According to this logic, Russia has successfully set off in the United States. Whoever wins in the US presidential election may no longer be important.
Russia is going to be chaotic, China seeking stability?
As for the Chinese side, the Beijing side should also be more expected to be re -elected. The root cause is that Beijing's demand for Sino -US relations is a stable competition relationship, and the Trump administration has changed in the past three years.And subverting the existing consensus trace. This method of governance may be far more harmful to the United States than to China, but it is undoubtedly not conducive to the stability of Sino -US relations.Therefore, regardless of the Chinese folk opinion, Beijing officials should probably look forward to the wins of Biden, so as to create an opportunity for the positive track of Sino -US relations to return to the reason.
On the other side, the National Counterintelligence and Security Center also made a similar observation, and its director William Evanina said: We believe that China is more hopeful to be re -elected because of Beijing because of Beijing.It is difficult for him to predict.
