Zhu Ying
Sino -US relations have deteriorated in the trade war, and Sino -US signed a trade agreement to suspend the trade war.Surprisingly, the acceleration of the crown disease has deteriorated sharply.The dramatic is that the trade agreement has become the only link to maintain Sino -US relations.The trade war seems to break the cockpit stone, and the trade agreement generated by the trade war has become a cockpit stone, although the current cockpit stones are not as comparable to the cockpit stones of the year.The pace of history is really not designed by the leaders.
At present, the conversation between the leaders of China and the United States is not good. The radio silence between the foreign departments between China and the United States will last for a period of time.On August 25, the People's Daily published a full three layouts of 30,000 articles entitled Pompeo's speeches and the truth of the truth about the truth.This has increased the ambition of the Chinese people, but also blocked the channels for diplomatic communication between the two countries.China should no longer deal with this human enemy, but this is conflict with the preparation of the preparation of conversation with the Chinese side to meet with the United States.
Fortunately, the only way to resolve this contradiction is that the trade agreement has created conditions for the communication between China and the United States.On August 25, China Vice Premier Liu He and US trade representatives of the US trade representative Leitheizer and Treasury Minister Mnuchin.The US Trade Representative Office issued a statement stating that China has significantly increased the purchase of American products.Xinhua News Agency reported on the same day that China and the United States had conducted constructive dialogue on strengthening the coordination of macroeconomic policy in the two countries and the implementation of the first phase of the economic and trade agreement between China and the United States. The two parties agreed to create conditions and atmosphere to continue to promote the implementation of the agreement.Chinese reports do not mention the number of procurement in China.
The essence of the Sino -US first -stage trade agreement is China ’s buy and buy.The agreement stipulates that the total amount of American products purchased by China is US $ 200 billion, and this year is $ 77 billion.According to official US data, in the first half of this year, the US exported to China was only $ 7.3 billion, which was far lower than the target of US $ 36.5 billion in the agreement, and the completion amount was less than half.In terms of energy procurement, China's procurement target in the first half of the year was $ 25.3 billion, but only 5%was currently completed.From the current situation, it is difficult for China to achieve established goals.
However, the Sino -U.S. Trade Agreement contains a non -resistant clause.If one party is delayed due to natural disasters or unpredictable situations of both parties or other parties, and the obligations of this agreement cannot be fulfilled in time, the two parties shall negotiate.This clause laid foreshadowing for the number of Chinese products in China.Trump now knows a secret of this trade agreement.He said on May 14 that when the Chinese government signed a trade agreement in January, he knew that the epidemic had built.To this end, the Chinese government decisively signed an agreement in January to prevent the upgrading of the Sino -US trade war.From this point of view, China is the winner.
It is not so simple to continue to be a winner.Although the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed his refusal to be decoupled, the reality is that the decoupling of Sino -US economic and trade is underway. At least many export restrictions issued by the US government directly cut Sino -US trade.From the beginning of last year to July this year, the United States has included nearly a hundred Chinese companies in the entity list and implemented high -tech export control.
On August 23, Trump said in an exclusive interview with Fox News that if China cannot treat the United States correctly, he will certainly choose to cut off the relationship with the CCP.People's Japan newspapers pointed out that decoupling is the turmoil of misjudgment, and China and the United States have formed a community of interests of deep integration.However, this community needs the recognition of the United States.
Listen to what the author who creates the word Sino -US community said.In 2007, well -known economic historians Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick created the term Chimerica to describe symbiotic economic relations between China and the United States.In December 2019, Ferguson pointed out that the partnership between China and the United States no longer exists, and the Second Cold War has begun.He also said that Trump awakened the United States, let all sectors of the United States see China's threat to the United States, and allowed the two parties to reach a consensus on China.Ferguson revealed the reality of Sino -US relations.
So Sino -US relations forced Sino -US economic and trade relations to face decourse.Craig Allen, chairman of the U.S.-China Business Council, said in an interview with the media that with the history of Sino-US relations, decouragement is completely possible. In the past, we had a decoupling experience.From 1949 to 1979, although this experience was not comfortable and uncomfortable, decouragement is possible from historical experience.The United States -China decoupled is currently mainly telecommunications, semiconductor and network fields. Typical examples are the US cutting Huawei supply chain.
On the other hand, the United States and China are indeed difficult.Except for sensitive industries, it will be difficult to change China's status as an industrial product manufacturing and product assembly center.It is estimated that China's manufacturing industry accounts for 28%of the global manufacturing industry. That is to say, the status of Chinese manufacturing in global industrial product manufacturing is outstanding, and no country in the world can replace China's current processing manufacturing status.
According to the United Nations trade statistics, as of May, as of May, which can obtain recent data, medical workers have increased sharply in the four main supplies (masks, medical masks, protective clothing, and protective mirrors) used to prevent coronary virus infection.The degree of dependence imports from China has increased from 59%(average) in January to 83%in January.
From this point of view, people who are worried about Sino -US economic and trade relations have been comforted from it. Sino -US trade is still the largest bilateral trade in the world.The US smartphone market resumed strongly in the second quarter of 2020, with shipments of 31.9 million units, an increase of 11%month -on -month, but 70%was produced by Chinese manufacturers.Sino -US economic and trade dependence continues to exist, and the Sino -US trade agreement has increased insurance to maintain Sino -US relations.
Sino -US economic and trade dependence has become a major feature of the Cold War between the Sino -US Cold War.In the context of the deterioration of Sino -US relations, it is still necessary to sweat for the decoupling of Sino -US economic and trade. Sino -US decoupling of the semiconductor industry will bring serious consequences to Chinese technological progress.China and the United States are not trusting each other and cannot solve the decoupling of China and the United States in the semiconductor industry.
Semiconductor is closely related to emerging military technology.According to a report by the US Congress Research, China has become the strongest competitor in the United States in the cutting -edge military technology fields such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing.The United States does not develop deadly independent weapons, but some Chinese manufacturers say they can choose and strike their goals independently when publicizing their weapons.It is unlikely that the United States will deploy operating high supersonic weapons by 2023. China has developed Dongfeng 41 Intercontinental ballistic missiles that can carry nuclear hypersonic skaters.The United States knows these killers. The United States scares urine and can only choose to cut off chip supply.
The author is a professor of economics at the Business School of Shanghai Normal University in China
Except for sensitive industries, it will be difficult to change China's status as an industrial product manufacturing and product assembly center.It is estimated that China's manufacturing industry accounts for 28%of the global manufacturing industry. That is to say, the status of Chinese manufacturing in global industrial product manufacturing is outstanding, and no country in the world can replace China's current processing manufacturing status.
