Ming Pao News Agency
New crown pneumonia has been popular in the world for half a year. Human life has changed dramatically. The world operation model and connection before the epidemic will be interrupted. It can be seen that everyone will learn and coexist in the epidemic in the future.The development of the epidemics in various places, the rise and fall in half a year depends on the performance of government governance, public health infrastructure, and social and cultural factors. At the same time, it is also related to the location of their own global economic systems. It is not accidental that Europe and the United States and BRICS countries have become the main epicenter.The epidemic cracks down on the world economy, the tourism industry is on the verge of collapse, the unemployment and deterioration of various places, the disparity between the rich and the poor, the international community faces the century epidemic, failed to help each other.EssenceThe only way to the world before the epidemic is that the higher the ability to control the epidemic, the greater the opportunity to adapt to the new normal. In the era of the post -epidemic situation, it can occupy a more favorable position.
European and American brick countries seriously disaster
Restore the life before the epidemic
On March 11, WHO announced that the epidemic of new crown pneumonia was popular. At that time, there were only about 100,000 in the world's confirmed cases, and China accounted for 80 % of them.After half a year, the global confirmed cases have increased to 28 million, and the number of deaths exceeds 900,000.More than 6 million people in the United States have infected and more than 190,000 people are sick, which has become the most serious country in the epidemic.The epidemic disrupted the global industrial chain and supply chain. In order to cope with the epidemic, local governments have suspended work, suspend classes, restrict tourism, or even seal the city. The people's livelihood has been greatly affected and the economic blow is heavy.In addition to China is expected to maintain growth, major global economies have shrunk and decline.
The epidemic has intensified, and many people hope that the vaccine will be reversed. However, the WHO pointed out earlier this month that there is no vaccine so far that it can prove that its effectiveness has reached the threshold set by the WTO, which means that at least 50 % of the vaccinations have at least 50 % pairs.The virus has immunity.WHO estimates that even if the vaccine is developed smoothly, it is estimated that large -scale vaccination will be large -scale as soon as in the middle of next year.In addition, how long the vaccine immune effect can last, it is still unknown. If it is only half a year to most and half a year, it can be seen that the epidemic will continue in the future, which means that the resumption of the pre -epidemic life model is far away, and everyone must adapt to the new normal.
Looking back on the development of the epidemic, 8 countries with the most confirmed cases in the world are the United States, India, Brazil, Russia, Peru, Colombia, Mexico and South Africa.The epidemic of Western European countries such as Britain, France, and Cixi has been repeated, and the total number is enough to rank among the eight major.The Secret Brother is adjacent to Brazil, and Mexico is adjacent to the United States.In other words, the worst areas of global epidemic are Europe, the United States, and 4 VIAs except China.Economic globalization has built a complicated world system. If it summarizes it, Europe and the United States have a long -standing core to support the excellence, emerging economies play the role of consumer goods producers and raw material suppliers.The global economic system is relatively low, and it is located.European and American and BRICS countries have become the main earthquake in the epidemic. To some extent reflect the relationship between virus diffusion and economic globalization. As for the severity of the epidemic conditions in various countries, it is mainly affected by internal causes.
The epidemic in the United States and Brazil is obviously related to government governance and populist politics.The presidential economy of the two countries first and anti -epidemic.The US Water Gate case reporter Woodward published a book and quoted the recording of the content of the recording, pointing out that President Trump had early knowledge of the new crown pneumonia, but deliberately diluted the epidemic.Trump argued that this was to avoid creating panic. However, knowing that threats are true, they do not tell the public, which is tantamount to concealing the truth and misleading the people.The epidemic in India, Russia, and South Africa is more related to social and economic structural factors and resistance to epidemic.Taking India as an example, the Modi government ordered the nation to seal the city for 21 days as early as March. The economy after resistance to the economy first, but the Indian public health infrastructure was weak, the economic foundation was not thick, and the measures such as the city had no livelihood., Falling into a disaster that is not economically frustrated.In the second quarter of India, the economic atrophy of more than 20 %, and recently added more than 90,000 new diagnosis in a single day, becoming a global record. If the trend continues, the epidemic is even better than the United States at any time.
The epidemic and social restrictions have the greatest blow to the poor, and the unemployed; the rich country has stepped up the quantitative loose banknote printing to save the market. The actual effect is to exacerbate the disparity between the rich and the poor at the domestic and international level.Except for South Africa in African countries, the number of diagnosis is not too high, because the reason is that they are located in the global economic system and relatively small exchanges with the people with severe disasters. It is still difficult to assert because the detection volume is low.The people of poor countries are affected by global economic recession and domestic epidemic prevention measures. Food supply may have problems, and even suffered famine, calling on countries to donate. However, it is a doubt about the situation of neighbors and the wealthy country willing to provide.
In the early days of the epidemic, cities in various countries were blocked by cities, economic activities were greatly reduced, and air pollution from various places was greatly reduced. As many countries insisted on reopening the economy, greenhouse gas emissions have now returned to the pre -epidemic level. Scientists warn that global warming may be within 5 years within 5 years.Breaking through an irreversible threshold, that is, the global average temperature before the Industrial Revolution is 1.5 ° C.Global warming water is immersed in eyebrows. After the epidemic retreats, the extreme climate crisis may come again, but now the international community can not even resist the disease. It is expected that countries will cooperate to resist warmth and be optimistic.
The warm crisis approaches quietly
Early conspiracy to take the post -epidemic era
At the beginning of the outbreak of the Mainland, Wuhan authorities responded to obvious problems, but China quickly established a strong and powerful immune system.Looking at the world, China seems to be the most capable of achieving sustainable recovery, and there is no need to be hoped to be on the vaccine.International relations are complicated and have many factors. Among them, there are both subjective policy choices and objective conditions.The China -US struggle was fierce, and Trump was too weak to resist. He accused Beijing concealed the epidemic and managed to draw allies to deal with China. At the same time, China effectively controlled the epidemic.It is difficult to give up cooperation with China.How to pull these two forces will affect the international pattern of the post -epidemic era.During the most unknown period after the end of the Cold War, no one was expected. Only by doing their best to do a good job, improve the ability to control the epidemic, and strive for a favorable place in the world's new pattern.
