Rahman: Today's world leaders are no longer worried about nuclear weapons.This relatively relaxed mentality seems to make the natalties more willing to bear the risk of military confrontation.
My generation grew up under the shadow of the nuclear war.After a few months after I was born in the Cuban missile crisis, the crisis was the moment when human beings were closest to the end of the world.In the process of growing up, the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament is a powerful political force.
My child is more likely to protest climate change, not nuclear weapons.The world leaders are no longer worried about nuclear weapons.The characteristics of mdash; mdash; nuclear arms control negotiation negotiation Mdash; mdash; MDASH; it has fallen into stagnation.But this relatively relaxed mentality is producing a perverted effect.It seems that countries with nuclear weapons are more willing to bear the risk of military confrontation in each other.
There are three international confrontations around the world, and the tension between the nuclear countries in it is touching the danger level.At present, the biggest risk is MDASH; MDASH; the recent outbreak of conflict has caused 21 Indian soldiers and unknown Chinese soldiers to die.The military tensions of China and the United States in the Pacific region are also increasing.At the same time, the crisis of Belarus has caused concerns about Military intervention in Russia, which will bring NATO into alert state.
The weakening of nuclear deterrence will produce two very different risks that are completely different.The first is the risk of conventional wars: if two countries with nuclear weapons believe that they can fight with a nuclear war, a conventional war may occur.Followed by the risk of nuclear war: If conventional warfare is accidentally upgraded, nuclear war may occur.
During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union were very clear about the danger of nuclear war, so they never dared to take risks to use conventional weapons to directly fight each other.However, the Chinese leadership has endured the risk of killing Indian soldiers. Although India also has nuclear weapons, New Delhi is fighting back.
The fatal conflict in the Himalayan region this summer is just the second time in history to fight between two nuclear countries.The first time was the Kargil War that broke out between India and Pakistan in 1999.That confrontation did not evolve into a nuclear war.But it shocked the world leaders.At that time, the US President Bill Bull; Bill Clinton said that the front line of the conflict between the two sides was the most dangerous place in the world.
There are fewer nuclear alarm around China -India conflict.Both India and China have pursued not to use nuclear weapons policies first, which makes most experts feel relieved.However, if Beijing and New Delhi do not use their confidence in their nuclear weapons and let China let go to use its military advantages, then India may not help but change its policy in order to restore deterrence.Some experts point out that India deploy tactical nuclear weapons in the Himalayan region, or formally announce the possibility of abandoning the first nuclear weapon policy.
For a country that is worried about losing a conventional war, threatening the use of nuclear weapons is always attractive.Pakistan's military doctrine is imagined to use nuclear weapons as early as the invasion of India and Pakistan who will defeat.
Western analysts have been worried for a long time. For similar reasons, Moscow will threaten the use of nuclear weapons early in conflicts with NATO.This strategy is called Escalate to de-EscAte.NATO planners sometimes mentioned a military exercise conducted by Russia in 2009. It is reported that the exercise finally simulated a nuclear attack on Warsaw.At that time, Russia wanted to make a conflict around the outbreak of Belarus MDASH; mdash; it was the country's current domestic political turmoil that triggered a discussion on military intervention in Russia.
Worried that Russia could use a small tactical nuclear weapon with a small amount of equivalent in the conflict with NATO, the United States has developed its own new generation of low -volume nuclear weapons.Earlier this year, these nuclear weapons were first deployed to the submarine.It is said that their equivalent is smaller than the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima in 1945; MDASH; obviously the intention to reassure people.
In addition to modernizing the nuclear arsenal, the United States is also withdrawn from its existing nuclear arms control agreement with Russia.The Intermediated Range Nuclear Forces Treaty was invalidated in 2019.The restriction of the number of intercontinental nuclear missiles to reduce the strategic weapon treaty (Start) is unlikely to renew the visa next year.
One of the main reasons why the Trump administration does not renew some military reserve control treaties with Russia is not limited to China, and the United States now regards China as its most dangerous opponent.
Even when Barack Bull; Barack Obama was president, I heard a senior American strategic prediction that the United States and China will eventually have a military confrontation with MDash; mdash; it is likely to be at sea.Their expectations are that any confrontation will be quickly controlled through diplomatic channels.
As the United States and China continue to adopt the opponent as a provocative action on the Taiwan and the South China Sea issue, the risk of such conflicts between the two countries is rising.The obvious danger of such a conflict is that diplomatic methods cannot calm down the situation and the conflict is upgraded.
Any confrontation between the United States and China will be regarded as a symbolic struggle to compete for the advantage of the Pacific region. This fact means that Beijing and Washington are likely to not accept a obvious failure.This will increase the risk of military conflict upgrades between two countries with a large number of nuclear weapons.No one should take it lightly about how the situation may develop.
Translator/He Li
