Wang Weinan: Why does the deterioration of Sino -US relations deteriorate here?

Wang Weinan

Sino -US relations have been sighing in recent years.In the middle of the 1980s after the two countries had just established diplomatic relations, the two sides settled in order to combine the Soviet Union, and shelved the differences in major issues such as ideology and Taiwan.At that time, the United States positioned China as a friendly African alliance, and exported many advanced weapons to China that only American allies were eligible to obtain.

The two countries also set up monitoring stations on the side of China on the Xinjiang and the Sino -Soviet border to collect information from Soviet Union.It can be said to be the golden years of Sino -US relations since 1949.

Political events in Beijing in June 1989 caused this closely relationship to stop abruptly. Since then, China's collapse theory has prevailed in both American politics.Deng Xiaoping's high -profile southern tour in early 1992, he turned to turn the tide, not only emphasizing that China will not lock the country from then on, but also urges party committees and governments at all levels to increase reform and opening up.As the Chinese economy has once again on the fast lane, the domestic situation has stabilized, and China's collapse theory has become increasingly unprecedented in the United States, and the theory of contact with China has gradually occupied the upper hand.

What must be clarified here is that the US contact policy of the United States did not advocate unconditional Sino -US cooperation, but was an integral part of the global contact strategy formulated by the Clinton government (January 1993 to January 2001).The core of the strategy is to seize global opportunities and prevent global risks. It is reflected in the policy of China to cooperate and prevent prevention.

The purpose of cooperation in China includes expanding the Chinese market and regulating Chinese behavior. At the same time, it also hopes to change China's basic system in the process of cooperation, making China more like the United States.The United States must have the ability and actions that the United States should respond to this unfavorable situation when the cooperation fails or hopes to fail or even if China endangers the interests of the United States.

However, too many people between the two countries only emphasize the cooperation or soft side of China in contact policies, while ignoring the defense or hard side of China.In fact, the Taiwan Strait missile crisis in 1996 and the 1999 American bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia were all reflected in this precautionary or hard side.

In the early days of taking office (January 2001 to January 2009), the Bush administration wanted to greatly increase the toughness of China, but was disrupted by the September 1st incident and had to continue to emphasize cooperation.With the long -term delay of the anti -terrorism war, as the comprehensive national strength of China continues to grow rapidly, the cooperation between the two sides in the first 10 years of the new century is both extensive and profound, so that at the time, both countries thought that Sino -US relations were in the best history in history.period.

The turning point of Sino -US relations appeared around the Obama administration (January 2009 to January 2017).At that time, the two sides had unpleasant cooperation in many fields, and even seriously strategic doubts in some areas.In December 2009, the conflict between the two sides at the Copenhagen Climate Conference became the last straw that overwhelmed the camel.After entering 2010, returning to Asia and returning to Asia -Pacific Asia -Pacific rebalancing strategy has become increasingly becoming a high -frequency word for the American public opinion field. The voice of cooperation with China has continued to weaken, and its tough claims for China have continued to strengthen.

It was also since then that the two circles of the United States have launched a major debate against China, and comprehensively reviewed the relations with China and China and the United States since Clinton and even Noson.Is it more conservative?Is China's basic political and economic system more like the United States?Does China's domestic and international behavior have fundamentally improved?Is China's current development situation more advantage to the United States, or is it more disadvantaged?The core question is: Does the contact policy for China have achieved the expected results?

This debate basically ended in the 2016 U.S. election and concluded that the preliminary conclusion: the contact policy for China has not achieved the expected purpose.Fundamental transformation.This is the historical background of President Trump since he took office in January 2017.

In other words, the current tough policy for China is not a passive water, but a historical trajectory to follow; Sino -US relations have evolved from the golden years of the 1980s to the current sword and tension.Determined by a series of internal genetic factors.These genetic factors are the differences and contradictions of the two sides on a series of issues.

China believes that the United States has long interfered in China in Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, human rights and other issues.Try to subvert the CCP's leadership position in China; the United States engage in protectionism in the field of economy and trade, engage in hegemonism and power politics in bilateral relations; the United States is concerned about China's only superpower status in the world in the world, and so on.China ’s accusations on the United States are scattered in the public speeches of relevant department spokespersons, and they also appear more in the public results of Chinese scholars.

The United States' accusations on China can refer to the strategic policy of the United States on the People's Republic of China on May 20 this year. This is the first time that the United States has released comprehensive strategic documents specifically for China in history.The report divides challenges from China into three areas of economy, values and security, and listed in detail the specific expression forms in each field. In fact, it is a formal and comprehensive accusation of China.

For example, in the field of economic, it accuses China of not abiding on the commitment to economic reform, adhered to national capitalism and trade protectionism, distorted the global market for subsidies to enterprises, and caused environmental pollution.In the field of values, it is accusing China of challenging the fundamental beliefs of the United States worldwide.In the field of security, it is accusing China of taking threats to consider their own interests and mandatory military and quasi -military activities in the surrounding waters and regions.

From a theoretical point of view, China's accusations on the United States may be more suitable for explaining the popular Xiuxidide trap, which has been popular in recent years.This theory believes that a newly rising country must challenge the existing great power, and the existing power must also respond to this threat, which makes the war between the two inevitably.Although some people have recently discovered that this theory does not conform to the ancient Greek historical facts it has built, the truth it elaborates is very in line with the Chinese proverb that is not tolerate, so there are many supporters in the Chinese academic and public opinion circles.

The United States' accusations on China may be more suitable for explaining democracy and peace.This theory believes that there will be no war between mature democratic countries. Between democratic countries and autocratic countries, between different autocratic countries, and inside the autocratic countries, war is more likely to occur.The history of international relations after World War II also seemed to confirm this theory.This provides a basis for the United States to take the opportunity to promote China's democratic transformation and feel the effects of the feeling of failing to turn after years of hard work.This theory has a market in both Western politics, including the United States.

The deterioration of Sino -US relations is sighing, and the causes of deterioration are good.Historical experience tells us that two countries with close connections, especially between large powers, require both parties and cooperation to have their will, and as long as one party is willing to have a willingness to friction and conflict.The life experience of modern society also tells us that if the three views are inconsistent with people, it is easy to generate a psychological distance; between the two major powers of the three views, it is undoubtedly a difficult task to maintain long -term peace and cooperation.It's right.

The author is the executive deputy director of the Taiwan Research Center of Shanghai Jiaotong University in China

The deterioration of Sino -US relations is sighing, and the causes of deterioration are good.Historical experience tells us that two countries with close connections, especially between large powers, require both parties and cooperation to have their will, and as long as one party is willing to have a willingness to friction and conflict.