Yu Zeyuan: The two sides are actively preparing for the China -India border crisis uns

Early

Ji Yan Chunqiu

Following the conflict of the Laer Wan River Valley in June, the Sino -Indian army at the end of last month at the south bank of the Bandong Hubi and the Gulin Mountain Exit of the Ladaku area at the end of last month.China Defense Minister Wei Fenghe and Indian Minister of Defense Singh showed their willingness to peacefully solve confrontation after meeting in Moscow on September 4.

However, the China -India border crisis was not lifted. While the two countries were in contact, the army of the two sides was also actively preparing for the war to prepare for the further deterioration of the situation.

Ban Gong Lake is located in the Ladaku area of the China -India border. It is about 150 kilometers long. Among them, one end of about 110 kilometers upstream is freshwater lake. One end controlled by India is saltwater lake and cannot be directly consumed.During the Border War in 1962, the China -India army broke out in this area with large -scale battles.

According to media reports such as the Indian Times, China has recently deployed monitoring equipment on the highlands on the south bank of Ban Gonghu.At the end of August, the Indian army quickly entered the area, preventing the provocative military operations of the Chinese army, and India has deployed sufficient strength and equipment.

A spokesman for the western Chinese theater, Zhang Shuoli, said that on August 31, the Indian Army once again illegally Out of control near the south bank of Ban Gonghu and the Kiqin Mountain Exit, and blatantly provoked, causing the border situation to be tense.The Chinese side expressed strong opposition to this, requiring the Indian army to immediately withdraw the illegal cross -line to occupy the control force, strictly control and restrict front -line troops, effectively abide by their promises, and avoid further upgrading of the situation.

Wei Fenghe and Singh showed a tough position during the meeting.Wei Fenghe emphasized that the cause and truth of the current situation of the Sino -Indian border is very clear. The responsibility is exactly in the Indian side, and China's territory cannot be lost in one inch; the Indian side also emphasizes that the territorial sovereign is complete.

The two defense ministers also stated that they should resolve the military confrontation of the China -India border peacefully.Wei Fenghe hopes that both parties will persist in solving problems through dialogue and promoting the current situation to cool down and relax as soon as possible.Singh also believes that the two -level dialogue channels such as military and diplomacy should be kept unblocked. Through dialogue, we should solve problems and solve problems peacefully.

However, the differences between the two sides are still very obvious.Wei Fenghe hopes that the Indian party strictly abides by a series of agreements reached by the two parties, effectively strengthen the control of front -line troops, and will not cross the current actual control line for provocation.According to China -India in September 1993, the agreement on maintaining peace and peace in the actual control line of the border, both parties should not cross the current actual control line.

Singh did not directly respond to the Indian side over the actual control line, but hoped that the two parties would take a responsible attitude to realize the full from contact with the front -line troops as soon as possible.

Although the meeting of the Sino -Indian defense ministers reached a consensus to resolve confrontation peacefully through dialogue, the conditions for both sides were different.The Chinese side hopes that the Indian side will return the original actual control line, and the Indian side hopes to discuss the army's army out of contact on the basis of the newly occupied actual control line.China obviously does not admit this result.

However, China will not immediately start military operations on the China -India border and drive the Vietnam Indian army away.This is not because of China's poor strength, but that China is unwilling to see the upgrade of the China -India conflict. Especially under the aggressive offensive against China in the United States, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea are the strategic focus of China's unable to protect the problem.If a war erupted by the China -India border, China may face the pressure of responding to the two lines or even multi -line conflicts.In less than a last resort, China will not lightly start the war because of the Indian army.

For India, the consequences of war with China are difficult to predict.Affected by the crown disease epidemic, India fell by 23.9%in the second quarter of this year, the largest decline since the release of the quarterly data in 1996, and the economic situation in the third quarter was not optimistic.Although the tension between the China -India border is conducive to transferring the attention of Indian citizens, to fight with China, India not only does not have the grasp of winning, but also increases economic and social turmoil.

Interestingly, US President Trump 9shy; on the 4th, the United States was willing to help the Sino -Indian situation for alleviating.However, Chinese public opinion believes that India's dare to pick up things on the China -India border is to be encouraged by the United States. Trump's statement is that the weasel is the New Year to the chicken, and he has no good intentions.

The official website of the Chinese Embassy in India issued a statement on September 3, emphasizing that China -India has the ability to properly handle the disputes between the two countries on border issues through bilateral channels, and does not require foreign countries to draw hands.

On September 10, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian Foreign Minister Su Jesheng are expected to meet in Moscow.Although the two sides may not be able to reach an agreement, the dialogue itself is still conducive to alleviating the tension of the border.

The Sino -Indian border dispute has a long history. In the context of the fierce changes in the international situation, the probability of crisis in the border will be higher. How to control the crisis tests the wisdom of China -India policy makers.If the crisis leads to war, China and India will be losers.