Lin Yuan

In the 2018 Taiwan mayor's election, Han Liu became a strong election force, turned Kaohsiung and even the entire Taiwan election, and helped South Korea to enter the Kaohsiung City government.Since then, South Korea ’s Yu has not guided Han Liu to promote the progress of social progress and economic development in Taiwan.

But he did not expect that Ha Liu began to ebb.On the other hand, the Taiwan Green Camp surged from the anti -Korean stream combined with the enemy, forming a new wave of elections.The Taiwan election in January this year is a confrontation between Han Liu and anti -Korean lilation, and it also supports South Korean Yu and hates South Korean Yu.Both parties mobilized the voters, and finally won the decisive victory.

In addition to preventing him from being elected president, removal of South Korean Yu is also the goal of anti -Korean stream.In June, the anti -Korean outlook made South Korea ’s Yu the first mayor to be dismissed in Taiwan with more than 930,000 votes.However, anti -South Korea is not exactly equivalent to supporting the DPP, and it is not completely equivalent to supporting the party's Kaohsiung mayor candidate Chen Qimai.

From the subsequent election of Kaohsiung Mayor, it can be seen that at least some of the middle voters hate South Korea ’s Yu, who did not stand on the Democratic Progressive Party for various reasons, including those who had doubts about the issue of corruption of green camps.In addition, some members of the small green party who hate South Korea ’s Yu also lack enthusiasm for voting Chen Qimai.Nonetheless, Chen Qimai won the re -election with a low vote rate and became one of the main harvesters of anti -Korean political fruits.

This time, Chen Qimai received 67,1804 votes, and he received 742,239 votes when the mayor's election was defeated in 2018.In June of this year, the Korean votes were in favor of 93,090 votes, of which more than 260,000 people did not support Chen Qimai.After the ebb to the ebb, anti -Korean flow also ebb, and Kaohsiung Politics will move towards a new normal.

Han Liu rose and fell, which had a great impact on Kaohsiung Blue Camp.The mayor's supplementary election should help the Kuomintang evaluate the basic status of the party in Kaohsiung.Li Meixuan, who was playing on behalf of the Kuomintang, received 248,478 votes, with a vote rate of only 25.9%.She does not have to be compared with South Korea's Yu, who won in 2018, but should be compared with Yang Qiuxing, who was running for the mayor of Kaohsiung in 2014.At that time, Yang Qiuxing received 450,000 647 votes, with a vote rate of 30.89%.If this (30.89%) is regarded as the lower limit of the Kuomintang's basic disk at that time (Yang Qiuxing turns from green to blue, some dark blue or unwilling to support him), it can be seen that behind the tide of the Korean tide, the lower limit of the Kuomintang basic market seems to continue to move down.

On the night before the election, South Korea ’s Yu appeared in Li Meixi, but this did not play a big role.Li Meiyu's defeat confirmed that the Korean Liu has decreasing the tide.After the election, the Kuomintang Legislative Yuan party's general call Lin Weizhou immediately proposed to bid farewell to the Korean ri, which should represent some people in the party, but it also caused some others to rebound.

Now the Kuomintang is facing the question of whether it is cut with the Korean stream, and whether it should completely get rid of the shadow of the Guoyu party, especially considering that the possibility of the Kuomintang chairman in the future will not be ruled out.However, bidding farewell to whether the Korean Wave is conducive to the comprehensive reform of the Kuomintang and whether it is conducive to its important victory in future elections. These need to consolidate the consensus within the party.

The Kuomintang was also difficult to make a big deal in the Kaohsiung local election in the Kaohsiung local election in 2022.After the Democratic Progressive Party regains Kaohsiung, the place will become the base of the Green Camp forces, while the Kuomintang has completely lost its important position that it has recaptured in South Taiwan for less than two years.In the future, the blue camp will be suppressed in Kaohsiung and other places in the south.

In addition, the defeat of this election campaign will not affect the overall election of the Kuomintang in 2022.Elections are not only amendments to the results of local elections in 2018, but also can be regarded as outposts for local elections in 2022.The defeat of the outpost war has deepened the shadow of the Kuomintang in 2022.

At present, if the Kuomintang wants to win more than two years later, it may still have to be a miracle like the 2018 Korean Wave.However, the rise of Han Liu was actually based on the popularity of the DPP at the time.Whether the Korean Wave will come back in the future, or there are some new elections that are similar to it, the key depends on the DPP's governance performance.If there is no serious error in the DPP, there will be no major scandal or disadvantage cases in the next two years, and the Kuomintang's election in 2022 is difficult to optimistic, regardless of whether South Korean Yu returns.

If the Kuomintang lost in the short -term elections, the possibility of the DPP's 20 -year -old possibility in Taiwan will increase greatly.In this case, there will be a unique situation in Taiwan, and the Kuomintang will be reduced to medium -sized political parties.As for the small party in Taiwan (the power of the people and the times, etc.), it is still very difficult to become a medium -sized party.

This time, Ke Wenzhe, the head of the party, or even wanted to make the party breakthrough in the election, and even surpassed the Kuomintang, and the defeat of the candidate Wu Yizheng was only 4.06%of the votes, with a total of NT $ 2 million (about S $ 93,400)If the election margin can't be taken back, he should disappoint him.The possibility of Ke Liu in Taiwan is indeed not much.

The author is a scholar, a doctor of history