Yu Zeyuan: The Sino -Japanese Relations in the Hou Abe is not optimistic

Early Thistle Yan Chunqiu

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his resignation on August 28 due to health reasons, and the new Prime Minister will be released in mid -September.Where will Sino -Japanese relations go in the post -Abe era?The prospects are probably not optimistic.

Regarding the Prime Minister of Abe's resignation, Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, responded the day before yesterday that in recent years, Sino -Japanese relations have returned to the right track and have achieved new development. The leaders of the two countries have reached an important consensus to promote the establishment of Sino -Japanese relations that meet the requirements of the new era.China expressed an active evaluation of the important efforts of Prime Minister Abe for this, and also wished him to recover soon.

Although the Chinese response has many diplomatic resignations, it also tells the fact that Abe has been in the eight -year Prime Minister for eight years. Sino -Japanese relations have not become worse. In the past two years, there is still a tendency to improve.

In 2010, Sino -Japanese relations fell into a trough because the Japanese government purchased the Diaoyu Islands (known as the Jiangang Island in Japan), and the Chinese Maritime Police Ship took advantage of the activities around the Diaoyu Islands.After Abe came to power in 2012, he continued to show a tough attitude towards China.However, China has not retreated, but has gradually achieved normalized cruise around the Diaoyu Islands, becoming more active in the Diaoyu Islands dispute.

Looking at the Sino -Japanese relations in the Abe era, although Japan did not concession in China on the issues of worshiping the Yasukuni Shrine, the Diaoyu Islands sovereignty, and sometimes participated in the United States -led Chinese actions;Conflicts, China -Japan economic, trade, and humanistic exchanges are normal, and political relations have not deteriorated.Without the impact of the crown disease, Chinese President Xi Jinping should have achieved visits to Japan this spring.

After the outbreak of the crown disease, Japan wrote the mountains and rivers from the aid supplies from Wuhan.The Chinese side later wrote Aoyama on the assistance of Japan to assist Japanese materials, and feedback with poems such as wind and rain.Although these exchanges are folk nature, they are also a proof of relatively stable Chinese -Japanese political relations in the Abe era.

After serving as the Prime Minister of Japan for the first time in 2006 in 2006, the first stop of the foreign visit chose China, which fully showed his sincerity to improve Japan -China relations.After taking office for the second time, Shinzo Abe was forced to be very tough on the surface due to the situation at home and abroad, especially the pressure of the United States, but he did not let Japan -China relations out of control, nor did he not completely suppress China in the United States.After the 2018 Sino -US trade war broke out, it was again visiting China, showing that he was not a hardliness of China in his heart, but hoped to maintain some balance between China and the United States.

The Abe era is about to end, and what kind of policy will the new prime minister will adopt China is still ugly.But it is more certain that compared with the Abe era, the challenges facing Sino -Japanese relations have continued to increase, and more variables will be.

The biggest uncertain factors of Sino -Japanese relations are changes in Sino -US relations.At present, regardless of Trump's re -election or Beiden's election, the United States will not give up a comprehensive suppression of China.As a vassal of politics in the United States, Japan does not have much choice in a large direction, and can only stand in line with the United States to curb the rise of China.

Of course, to what extent Japan's extent in curbing China, it has a lot to do with the position and choice of the new Prime Minister.However, among the middle -generation and new generation of politicians, there are fewer and fewer pro -Chinese factions who have positive views on China. Traditional political leaders such as second -order Junbo and Haijiangtian Wanli are either old or basically withdrawn from politics.Will there be another prime minister who is similar to Shinzo Abe's on the surface in the short term. In fact, he hopes to improve Sino -Japanese relations. I am afraid no one can say.

No matter who takes over as the Prime Minister of Japan, it is difficult to avoid history, territory, and Taiwan when dealing with the issue of Sino -Japanese relations. At the same time, it is also necessary to face a conflict between China and the United States. In particular, the United States may deploy medium -range missiles against China in Japan.New trouble.

The United States announced last week that it will deploy medium -range missiles in Asia, and Japan is obviously the first choice for US deployment medium -range missiles.This will cause Japan to fall into a dilemma: if agreed, once a war happens, Japan will become the target of Chinese missiles; if it refuses, Japan will not bear the pressure of the United States.

As an American allies, Japan may eventually have to accept the fact that the US medium -range missile is deployed, but China will definitely take countermeasures, and Sino -Japanese relations will also be newly impacted.In this context, how the new Prime Minister of Japan will balance Japan and the United States, Japan and China will be a great challenge.

As an opponent who is entangled with historical and reality, it is impossible for China and Japan to go too close, but as a near neighbor and important trading partners, the interests of both China and Japan are closely tangled, and no one can decompose.Swing up between confrontation and cooperation may be the main characteristics of the Sino -Japanese relations in the post -Abe era.